3G·

I don't understand the (financial) world anymore

Friends,

How is it possible that $SMT (+2,41%) it’s down 6% today, while the largest holding (SpaceX, about 20% of the fund) is trading at a premium of about 30%?

The only explanation I can think of is the lock-up period, but that would still be a steep discount. Do you have any other ideas or information?

10 Commenti

Get_Rich_or_Die_Tryin@Get_Rich_or_Die_Tryin

Thought: Based on previous pre-IPO funding rounds, every time there was a new valuation of SpaceX, all British trusts officially revised their NAV values for the position upward. Presumably, many people got in early over time and are now simply cashing out.🤷🏼‍♂️ The price performance for these kinds of investments over the past year has been truly abnormal.

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Oskar@oskaroderso

It's because of the premium you pay when you buy the SMT. It was factored into the price at the IPO, and the premium is now shrinking again.

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jkb92@jkb92

To me, it makes perfect sense: people have been able to invest in $SMT for a long time now, so the stock price has performed well, and now it’s time to “sell the news.”

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Max@Anakreon

I had also bought SMT a few weeks ago with a similar intention: when the SpaceX IPO happens, the stock will go up. But during the weeks I held it, I realized that they were overvaluing the SpaceX portion of their investment (based on SMT’s own estimate of the company’s portfolio). That’s when I realized this calculation didn’t add up, so I sold SMT the day before the IPO at €16.98

Perhaps as an addendum: You have to keep in mind that the share price is never determined by any news or changes in the company’s value, but is formed purely based on the price at which supply and demand best align. For many, SMT was exactly that—a candidate for selling to potentially lock in profits, so they had already invested long ago. The IPO proceeded quite normally, without skyrocketing, resulting in an oversupply. Many market orders then gradually drove the price lower.

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Marco@Investplaner

Unfortunately, the "Sell the News" theory doesn't hold up for me. $SMT is trading roughly at NAV. The NAV was most recently valued at $1.25 trillion, including SpaceX, which is significantly lower than the current $2.3 trillion.

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Marco@Investplaner

Here’s the data again, showing that SpaceX was valued well below its IPO market value: https://www.scottishmortgage.com/en/germany/professional-investors/insights/ic-article/sm-articles-2026-q2-spacex-pre-ipo-briefing-note-10063055

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Get_Rich_or_Die_Tryin@Get_Rich_or_Die_Tryin

@Investplaner Then maybe this: anyone who’s been looking for ways to invest in SpaceX before the IPO has probably already scoured these funds. And now direct investment is the way to go—so forget the funds, and go straight for the stock itself.🤷🏼‍♂️

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jkb92@jkb92

This explanation might not make sense to you. But it makes sense to the market :)

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Chris@Multibagger

@Investplaner That's because private equity firms are always traded at a significant discount to the value of their portfolio companies. The same thing will likely happen again when Anthropic goes public.

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CaYaRo@CaYaRo

@Get_Rich_or_Die_Tryin ☝️dies

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