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1Anno·

Depot review December 2023 - On the home stretch, 2023 was still able to make up for all the losses from 2022 and break the €250,000 mark 🚀

In keeping with the new year, there is also a new profile picture for the first time - an AI-generated elf who specializes in lembas and mithril trading.

But now to the portfolio update:

After November was already the second-best November of my investment career, December has now also gone into the books as the second-best. In total, a return of +3,2% for December.

This brings my performance for the year to +24,0% and was thus able to beat my benchmark, the MSCI World (+20.2%).

Tech stocks were the main winners in 2023. With almost +8.000€ is hardly surprising NVIDIA
$NVDA (+4,28%) at the top. With +5,000€ and +4,000€ respectively then follow Palo Alto Networks $PANW (+0,27%) and Meta
$META (+0,43%)

Also Alphabet
$GOOG (-1,35%) and Microsoft
$MSFT (+1,15%) with each +3.000€ very strong this year

The main losers this year were healthcare, utilities, consumer staples and China. The biggest losers this year were:

Pfizer $PFE (+0,31%) -1.100€
China ETF $MCHS (-0,15%) -900€
Nextera $NEE (+0,2%) -900€
Johnson & Johnson $JNJ (+0,61%) -800€
Procter & Gable $PG (+0,56%) -500€

In total I bought again in December for ~2.500€ in December.

In total, my portfolio now stands at ~252.000€. This corresponds to an absolute increase of ~€74,000 in the current year 2023. ~43.000€ of this comes from price gains, ~2.500€ from dividends / interest and ~28.000€ from additional investments.

Thanks to the strong November and December, all price losses from 2022 have been made up.

Nevertheless, it has to be said that the last two years were not profitable overall. The portfolio has actually only grown through additional investments.

Dividend:

Dividends in December were +23% above the previous year at ~€300
For the year as a whole, dividends were +24% above the previous year at ~2.300€. In addition there was ~200€ in interest
The following companies paid the highest dividends this year, all of which distributed more than €100: Amgen $AMGN (+0,1%)
Procter & Gamble
$PG (+0,56%)
Unilever
$ULVR (+0,18%)
Johnson & Johnson
$JNJ (+0,61%) and Starbucks
$SBUX (-0,38%)
The highest dividend yields are achieved by Allianz
$ALV (+0,43%) with 9,5% on. In 2024 and a further dividend increase, I see a 10% yield here

Buys & sells:

I bought again in December for approx. 2,500€
As always, my savings plans were executed:
Blue chipsItochu $8001 (-1,62%) ASML $ASML (+0,61%) Deere $DE (+0,05%) Lockheed Martin $LMT (+0,09%) MasterCard $MA (+0,37%) Northrop Grumman $NOC (+1,75%) NVIDIA $NVDA (+4,28%) Republic Services $RSG (+0,1%) Thermo Fisher $TMO (+0,73%)
GrowthSartorius $SRT (+1,45%) Synopsys $SNPS (+0,6%)
ETFsMSCI World $XDWD Nikkei 225 $XDJP Invesco MSCI China All-Shares $MCHS and the WisdomTree Global Quality Dividend Growth $GGRP
CryptoBitcoin $BTC and Ethereum $ETH
Sales there were none in December

With another extremely strong performance in December, my portfolio broke through the €250,000 barrier. This really exceeds my wildest expectations that I had a year ago or even in October.

At the beginning of the year, my year-end target was €220,000 and my best-case scenario was €240,000.

What investments did you make outside of the stock market?

In 2022 I bought a balcony power plant installed. This has given me around 600kwh this year, saving me electricity costs of ~€200. In relation to the purchase price, this corresponds to a return of almost 30%.

In 2024, the topic of renting is also on the agenda, so far only investments have been made here, but from 2024 rental income should also start to flow.

Outlook for 2024:

I am now assuming an above-average stock market year in 2024. If we really do see a soft landing and some additional interest rate cuts from both the Fed and the ECB, this should give the markets a further tailwind. Of course, you have to bear in mind that November and December have already priced in a lot, 10% should be possible in any case.

I therefore see my assets at ~€300,000 at the end of 2024. This is mainly due to the lower investments I plan to make in 2024.

Overall, my savings rate will probably fall from €2,500-3,000 per month to "only" ~€2,000. This is mainly due to some private expenses that will be incurred in 2024.

What are your plans & expectations for 2024?

#dividends
#dividende
#rückblick
#depotupdate
#aktie
#stocks
#etfs
#crypto
#personalstrategy

22 Commenti

thomas@opathomas

1Anno

Great, congratulations... Wish you continued success and a great year 2024

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Mister_ultra@Mister_ultra

1Anno

@opathomas Thank you very much, I wish you the same! :)

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Epi@Epi

1Anno

Good work, and a bit of luck was probably involved too! 😉

However, I don't quite share your optimism for 2024. In the past, interest rate cuts almost never bode well. Central banks don't cut interest rates because they want to, but because they have to, usually because the interest rate hikes start to eat into the economy. If interest rates fall, stock market prices usually fall shortly afterwards. And if you look at the speed of falling bond yields, which usually anticipate key interest rates, then 2024 is likely to be very bumpy.
My base scenario: first few days down a little (profit-taking), up to new ATH by April (expectation of interest rate cut), then down until November (recession fears, Trump election) and up again a little in December (looking ahead to 2025). Overall, I expect a final level noticeably below today, around 10-20%.

What is your base scenario that makes you so optimistic?

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Mister_ultra@Mister_ultra

1Anno

@Epi probably more luck than sense, as always :D I would never have seen the performance of NVIDIA and Palo Alto Networks coming. And Meta too, I had them on my hit list for a short time at the beginning of the year.

It's very interesting to see how different perspectives are. My thoughts are as follows:

- Falling bond yields and any interest rate cuts will make interest-bearing investments less attractive compared to equities - This leaves a lot of money available from bonds, money market funds or call money accounts that can flow into the equity market
- If we do not experience a recession in 2024, the real economic pressure on companies will not be as high and financing costs will be reduced at the same time

But for me the main reason: Tech
I can well imagine that your points will come true, but that the stock market will (once again) decouple from the real economy. On the one hand, unprofitable tech companies benefit from lower financing costs and become attractive again. More importantly, a slight downturn is not really dramatic for most tech and software companies. The AI trend will continue to dominate and investments will have to be made. All the software as a service companies will also continue to earn their subscription fees.
That leaves the advertising sector with Alphabet and Meta. In recent years, we have also seen that companies are more likely to save on traditional advertising than on online advertising.

All in all, I believe that tech will continue to perform and can therefore compensate for weaknesses in other sectors (I can well imagine a scenario in which 10% of the stocks in the S&P 500 outperform the others again).

-> Last but not least: I am an unreconstructed optimist ;)

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Ella Marie Waschbär@DividendenWaschbaer

1Anno

We wish you continued success.

You should only recalculate your target for 2024.

You currently have €252,000, expect interest rate cuts and a soft landing. So calculate with +10% and already pay in €24,000 yourself.
This means that with a 0% return and without reinvested dividends, you would already have €276,000 😉
I would therefore assume your figures are closer to €300,000. Possibly even €310,000.

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Mister_ultra@Mister_ultra

1Anno

@DividendenWaschbaer Good point, I had forgotten one thing

Of the €252,000, around €230,000 is really invested money. The rest is liquidity, building society savings contract,... Here I assume a return of 0%.
10% on €230,000 corresponds to €23,000 + €24,000 in investments.
But then of course the money deducted above from liquidity and other 😂

Thank you!

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Pat R.@Pepkolino

1Anno

Very cool!

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Emil@GHGInvestor

1Anno

What exactly are internal rate of return and true time weighted return iwas

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Mister_ultra@Mister_ultra

1Anno

@GHGInvestor

It's not that easy. But you will find two helpful links below :)

https://support.extraetf.com/hc/de/articles/6777482546588-Zeitgewichtete-Rendite-TWROR-vs-Interner-Zinsfu%C3%9F-IZF-IRR-Was-ist-der-Unterschied-

Here is a very good first overview.

For much more detail, you can take a look here:
https://forum.portfolio-performance.info/t/wie-ist-meine-rendite-was-ist-der-unterschied-zwischen-internem-zinsfuss-und-true-time-weighted-rate-of-return/44

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Emil@GHGInvestor

1Anno

@Mister_ultra brings a lot of light into the darkness. Thank you🫶

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DonaldTruck@DonaldTruck

1Anno

Do you track everything Manuel (including dividends and tax) in PP?

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Mister_ultra@Mister_ultra

1Anno

@DerBofrostmann Yes, I track everything manually, including dividends.
But I don't actually record tax, because I want to compare myself against a benchmark. And an index like the MSCI World or S&P500 does not include tax.

But everything else is tracked manually :)

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Davide R.@daviderulli99

1Anno

First compliments, for your goals that you obtain for 2023 and the goal that you have for 2024, i would like to understand which work you do?

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Mister_ultra@Mister_ultra

1Anno

@daviderulli99 thanks a lot!

I'm working in the finance department of a big German corporation.

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Davide R.@daviderulli99

1Anno

@Mister_ultra now i understand because me too i work in the finance industry, and i see a very high level of management, my compliments

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JPinternational@JPinternational

1Anno

I'm new here. Do the evaluations come from the app? Where can I find them?

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Mister_ultra@Mister_ultra

1Anno

@JPinternational The dividend overview comes directly from getquin here.

The other evaluations are from Portfolio Performance, a program purely for the PC.
It offers considerably more design options, but everything is completely manual, whereas getquin does virtually everything for you :)

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Alexandre@NachMirDieGinflut

1Anno

Congratulations on this successful year, it looks similar for me and I am hopeful that the interest rate cuts will have a positive effect on the market.
Opinions are divided here.....

Where did you get the great list/graphic you published?

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Utente eliminato

1Anno

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Mister_ultra@Mister_ultra

1Anno

@California_Dreamin Thank you very much, I wish you the same! With lots of good performance in 2024 😂

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Utente eliminato

1Anno

Il commento è stato cancellato

Mister_ultra@Mister_ultra

1Anno

@California_Dreamin It's best if you join my Palantir group, then I'll show you how to make a mithril coin from a lembas bread every week! You won't get a return like this anywhere else!

GONDOR CAYMAN S!!!

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