@Savvy_investor_2000 There is an estimate from Goldman Sachs from June 2025: according to this, US consumers are currently only bearing around 22% of the increased tariffs. The majority will be borne by foreign exporters and US companies.
@thewolfofallstreetz However, the study also says that in addition to the 22% of US consumers, around 64% is retained by US companies. And only the small remainder goes to exporters.
@Savvy_investor_2000 It is also interesting to note the forecast that the consumer share could rise to 67% by October, while it will continue to fall for US companies and exporters.
@Savvy_investor_2000 Correct, the tariffs are basically nothing more than a consumption tax. Good for the rich (benefit from government revenue) and bad for the poor (higher consumption share of income).
@Savvy_investor_2000 That's right, I read that too. In the end, it is a forecast and it is unclear whether the case will be as extreme. Ultimately, it is a complex interplay of different factors, so the net effect for US consumers may not be as strong as expected. Why? US companies have more margin scope thanks to falling energy prices, deregulation and tax breaks. There are also productivity gains. Moreover, these are not exclusively essential goods and not all companies have pricing power vis-à-vis consumers. Monetary policy and the exchange rate can also cushion the inflation effect. I think it will be less severe than many expect. But ceteris paribus, you are right in what you say.
@thewolfofallstreetz...right. Yes, ceteris paribus, tariffs are a surcharge on consumption and production. And the longer protectionist measures remain in place, the more the formation of blocs, efficiency losses and higher prices become entrenched.
