US customs revenues on the rise

The W. · 2025-08-17T17:30:16.162236Z

$CSPX $VUSA Customs revenue in the USA is rising rapidly and reached a new monthly record of 28 billion US dollars in July - almost four times as much as in January.

Sahnehäubchen 🦋.@Savvy_investor_2000

1Settimana

US importers pay the customs duties at the customs office. And ultimately the consumers foot the bill, don't they?

•

11

•

Sahnehäubchen 🦋.@Savvy_investor_2000

1Settimana

@Savvy_investor_2000
Whether this makes economic sense in the long term is another question.

•

1

•

The W.@thewolfofallstreetz

1Settimana

@Savvy_investor_2000 There is an estimate from Goldman Sachs from June 2025: according to this, US consumers are currently only bearing around 22% of the increased tariffs. The majority will be borne by foreign exporters and US companies.

•

2

•

Sahnehäubchen 🦋.@Savvy_investor_2000

1Settimana

@thewolfofallstreetz
However, the study also says that in addition to the 22% of US consumers, around 64% is retained by US companies. And only the small remainder goes to exporters.

•

1

•

Sahnehäubchen 🦋.@Savvy_investor_2000

1Settimana

@thewolfofallstreetz
This means that almost 90% of US customs revenue is an internal tax burden.

•

1

•

Sahnehäubchen 🦋.@Savvy_investor_2000

1Settimana

@Savvy_investor_2000
It is also interesting to note the forecast that the consumer share could rise to 67% by October, while it will continue to fall for US companies and exporters.

•

2

•

Epi@Epi

1Settimana

@Savvy_investor_2000 Correct, the tariffs are basically nothing more than a consumption tax.
Good for the rich (benefit from government revenue) and bad for the poor (higher consumption share of income).

All according to plan (Project 2025). 👍

•

2

•

The W.@thewolfofallstreetz

6G

@Savvy_investor_2000 That's right, I read that too. In the end, it is a forecast and it is unclear whether the case will be as extreme. Ultimately, it is a complex interplay of different factors, so the net effect for US consumers may not be as strong as expected. Why? US companies have more margin scope thanks to falling energy prices, deregulation and tax breaks. There are also productivity gains. Moreover, these are not exclusively essential goods and not all companies have pricing power vis-à-vis consumers. Monetary policy and the exchange rate can also cushion the inflation effect. I think it will be less severe than many expect. But ceteris paribus, you are right in what you say.

••

Sahnehäubchen 🦋.@Savvy_investor_2000

6G

@thewolfofallstreetz...right.
Yes, ceteris paribus, tariffs are a surcharge on consumption and production.
And the longer protectionist measures remain in place, the more the formation of blocs, efficiency losses and higher prices become entrenched.

••

federalreserve@federalreserve

5G

@Savvy_investor_2000 Or the importers, often the customs duties cannot be passed on in full to end customer prices.

••

Isa@Issa

1Settimana

Great, the new tax for the American people.
The income tax can certainly be abolished, just like the orange messiah promised his deplorables... If the year had >175 months ...
The current budget for his ICE Gestapo is astronomically much higher than this "revenue"
Art of the deal once again.

•

3

•

Ph1l1pp@Ph1l1pp

1Settimana

Haven't the Orange Man's tariffs always been criticized? A different wind is blowing, all assets at ATH.

•

1

•

Lord P.@lordprettylambo

1Settimana

$500 billion annual run rate should be about 1/4 of the budget deficit right?

••

David@DerUnwissende

1Settimana

But you also have to see how many companies have announced that they will now invest more in the usa. At the moment, the Americans are not yet paying the tariffs as many companies have not yet added them to their prices. That will come at some point or the foreigners will have to reduce their stomachs and raise prices in other countries to make up for the shortfall.

••

Sahnehäubchen 🦋.@Savvy_investor_2000

6G

@DerUnwissende
However, margins cannot be sacrificed endlessly in order to subsidize import duties.
If margins become too thin, companies will at some point simply pull out and open up other markets. There are enough examples of this.
And even if withdrawal is not an option and companies are forced to relocate their production to the USA, the products end up being more expensive because new production sites have to be operated at lower capacity, with disrupted supply chains, their own logistics and additional fixed costs, etc.. This reliably makes every product more expensive. You can clearly see this in the US automotive industry for years.

••

Sahnehäubchen 🦋.@Savvy_investor_2000

6G

@Savvy_investor_2000
In the end, the Americans are buying sovereignty with higher costs and lower efficiency.

••

Sahnehäubchen 🦋.@Savvy_investor_2000

6G

@Savvy_investor_2000
Protectionism has never created prosperity in the long term. At least not for the masses. In the short term, it created jobs, investments and revenue. Historically, however, this has ended in bloc formation, loss of efficiency and higher prices.

••

The W.@thewolfofallstreetz

6G

@Savvy_investor_2000 The bottom line is that the sales market in the USA is too attractive to pull out. I agree with your comments on the production locations. At the same time, however, there are considerable tax breaks and deregulation in the banking sector for new production locations, which should give companies some leeway. My point: tariffs will not have a 1:1 impact.

••

Sahnehäubchen 🦋.@Savvy_investor_2000

6G

@thewolfofallstreetz
However, subsidies/tax breaks are only a shifting of costs.
They do not disappear, but are borne in other ways (national budget, debt, inflation).

••