1G·

Tesla: Overvalued

I don't understand all the shareholders at the moment. $TSLA (+2,09%) shareholders, I find the risk/reward ratio so unattractive.

Tesla's valuation is so high, and the core business of EV sales is hardly worth anything, and the bots & autonomous driving is becoming less and less likely. Deliveries are declining too much:

Warehouses are full the runs are declining and Tesla Autonomous Driving is Stuck at Level 2 with no sight of improvement as cameras are not the future.

Or as the ex-Ceo of Waymo said:

If a company were serious about building a safe robotaxi business, the robotaxi wouldn't look anything like this prototype. A serious robotaxi would demonstrate the primacy of safety; the manufacturer would place sensors in optimal positions-on the roof as well as on the sides and corners of the vehicle. These sensors would also have cleaning and drying functions-windshield wipers, compressed air nozzles, and so on.

Forecasts expect that every Tesla on the market would first have to be retrofitted for autonomous driving + it needs a lot of support these days (see Waymo, where some employees have to intervene).

Autonomous driving has been promised every year for a decade without any real improvements, so I'd rather invest in growth opportunities with lower risk... we're talking about a P/E ratio of 170 with 1% revenue growth... just a little food for thought, what do you think?

14 Commenti

Nick@Nick-investing

You're forgetting that many Tesla investors don't care at all. Believing in the great prophet is stronger for them.

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Robin@robiin

23H

@Nick-investing No American buys $TSLA just because of Elon without looking at the company behind it. They experience the reason for their purchase every day behind the wheel for USD 99.

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K@TechNav

@Nick-investing for years...

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Robin@robiin

23H

"(...) and the bots & autonomous driving is becoming less and less likely", "(...) Tesla autonomous driving is stuck at level 2 (...)", "every Tesla on the market would first have to be converted for autonomous driving". I say you are wrong without providing a 2000 word essay here. The fact is: regulation is not about the state of the technology, but about what you want to legally guarantee. As a company, I DECIDE what I guarantee with my technology and I base the classification of my system (level 1-5) on this. It is still FSD Supervised and under development. The potential is there and the quality is far above other Level 2 systems. Optimus and FSD have never been at a better level than they are today, as the updates to Optimus and the users of FSD say. You are right that HW3 vehicles need to be retrofitted, but HW4 vehicles can drive autonomously over long distances without any problems.

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Jan@Barrd

23H

I'm totally with you on that! Tesla is completely overrated in my eyes. Only its energy division is growing very well and is still good. The rest is complete garbage and also without growth for the valuation

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Nom@user28461

23H

Wave wave to the sidelines, love goes out 🤗

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Jochen Z.@jzzh2

14H

The answer is: AI and humanoid robots.
Cathie Wood
https://open.spotify.com/episode/5Yf0h4vqh1e85PnHXoYzmo?si=E73fZBbUR3SE5S-mvazZaQ

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💁‍♀️@BarbieResearch

https://getqu.in/uALa6Q/ 👼

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SatoshiRuffy@SathosiRuffy

23H

I'm not currently a Tesla fan either and the current situation is not easy for the company. Nevertheless, I think you are far too critical of Tesla. Elon/Tesla is certainly also aware that "no money" is made with EVs, hence the shift in focus to renewable energy, robotics and FSD.
Many risks, but just as many opportunities. For me, as I said, not a buy, but Tesla is repeatedly said to be dead. After all, 1Y performance +63% ;)

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Aktienfox@Aktienfox

23H

@robiin @SathosiRuffy In view of the current valuation, I don't think it's critical; I also had a position of around 2% at €100. But I think that the current solutions are still too far away. To Robin, there are currently too many negative case studies that Tesla is still too far away, and Waymo's lead doesn't exactly make it any better. Musk needs to switch to Lidar, cameras are not the future, they make too many mistakes.

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Robin@robiin

23H

@Aktienfox Cameras are the future, or do you still need someone to walk around blindfolded in front of your car and scan everything around them? It's enough to look at the road and process the information. That's the goal with camera + NN. Tesla is so close to autonomous driving that 60 Model Ys are currently driving autonomously around the Austin metro area (larger radius than Waymo) and making 110% sure that everything is running correctly.

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Katharine@Derkatz

15H

@robiin Tesla plans to offer its Robotaxi service in Austin from June 22. In other words, it remains to be seen whether it will really start on the 22nd. It would not be the first time it has been postponed. In test operation, ten to 20 Model Ys will initially take passengers to their destination autonomously in one part of the Texan city.
Waymo already has 1,500 robotaxis on the road in San Francisco, Los Angeles, Phoenix and Austin and completes over 250,000 passenger journeys every week. The fact that Tesla's radius in Austin is a bit larger doesn't seem like a game changer to me.

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Robin@robiin

14H

@Derkatz Will you buy Tesla stock when Tesla has >1,500 Robotaxis in use next year, which took Waymo far longer?

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Katharine@Derkatz

14H

No, as long as Tesla is on the road with outdated models and technical short-sightedness, I see Tesla Robotaxis driving straight into a dead end, I don't want to be there.
VW will probably have more autonomous IDBuzz on the road even faster than Tesla.

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