6G·

Outlook 2026

Brief introduction combined with a request for opinions. At a share price of around EUR 81.00, the market capitalization is approximately EUR 1.31 bn (52-week range: 108.40 / 70.50).

From a fundamental point of view, the ratios look interesting: reported equity recently amounted to just under EUR 2.3 billion. In operational terms, sales of around EUR 6.2 billion and EBITDA of around EUR 490 million were recently reported; earnings per share were around EUR 8.80. This looks like a stable business, while the stock market value appears comparatively low.

In my view, the issue of real estate assets is particularly relevant. There is talk of significant hidden reserves in real estate property; based on a conservative rental multiplier of 13, these hidden reserves in the Group were put at around EUR 966 million. If a higher, but still cautious multiplier of 22 is applied, this would result in hidden real estate reserves of around EUR 1.63 billion. This would mean that the hidden reserves alone would already exceed the current stock market value, while the operating business would hardly be "paid for" in this view.

Against this backdrop, a question for the community: How realistic do you think it is that CEO Albrecht Hornbach (contract runs until October 31 according to the information available) will take steps to make these values visible?

There is speculation, for example, about a squeeze-out to simplify the structure and subsequent measures such as a sale and leaseback or a spin-off of the real estate segment.

What is your assessment: Is there a plausible catalyst here in the foreseeable future - or will this remain more of a long-term substance story where the market will not adequately price in the values for some time to come?

4 Commenti

der_Don@der_Don

I'll give you a tip, but not about the share. I know the company, but it's not for me. There is too much competition and online retail is increasingly overshadowing the store business.
But here's a well-intentioned tip:
You seem to have put a lot of effort into your article. There is certainly a lot of research behind it. So do yourself a favor and don't post it at midnight when most people are already asleep because they have to work tomorrow. Instead, post it in the morning or around noon when most people are on break and have time to look at their cell phones. That way you'll get more attention for your work.

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Smudo@Smudeo

While many European DIY stores are struggling with declining sales and loss of market share, Hornbach continues to grow and gain market share. This assessment is generally confirmed in the third quarter as well - with one important caveat: the earnings trend remains under pressure.

In the three months to the end of November, Group sales increased by 2.2% to EUR 1.54 billion. After nine months, the increase amounted to 3.8% to EUR 5.14 billion. Growth continues to be driven by the Hornbach Baumarkt subgroup, which accounts for 90% of consolidated sales and grew by 4.0% in the first nine months - with market shares being increased in almost all core markets. Growth was particularly strong in the Netherlands, the Czech Republic and Germany. The foreign share of DIY store sales thus rose to a good 53%, reflecting the positive momentum from the first half of the year.

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Patrick Schäfer@Hotte1909

Good article, but the net asset value unfortunately does not always say anything about the share value. The situation is similar at $LHA. Its net asset value is around 12 billion and all debts have been deducted. But it is only valued at 9 or so.

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Keineui@Keineui

We didn't even see 22x for DIY stores before Corona. Completely utopian. It's already priced in correctly and if you're an optimist, you give 15x. More is not possible. Who's going to use these things when Hornbach goes out?

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