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Company Presentation Before Midnight

Hello, everyone,

Given today's great performance and numbers in the tech sector,

is there a little treat for you.


The figures from OnVista and Market Screener differ once again.


So, as always, I’m eager to hear your take on our prompts (@Raketentoni / @Aktienhauptmeister )


But of course, I’m also looking forward to the community’s overall take.


After memory chips, the next bottleneck component is coming into focus in the AI supply chain: Tiny ceramic capacitors are driving lead times up to half a year—and sending stocks from Japan, Korea, and Taiwan soaring.


After processors and memory chips, the next component facing a shortage is coming into investors’ focus: so-called MLCCs, or multilayer ceramic capacitors. These tiny components—the smallest about the size of a grain of sand—are found in virtually every modern electronic device. In AI servers, they perform a critical function: they smooth out voltage spikes, filter out electrical noise, and prevent chips from becoming unstable when massive computing operations are booted up.

This is precisely what makes them the next target of the so-called “bottleneck strategy,” which investors have already successfully applied to memory chips. Goldman Sachs recently ranked MLCCs as the third-largest cost factor in the construction of AI server racks, after GPUs and memory. Analysts estimate that by 2030, the relevant MLCC market for AI servers could grow to more than four times its current volume. A single modern AI server rack can require hundreds of thousands of these components.


The consequences are noticeable: According to market observers, lead times for high-quality MLCCs now exceed 20 to 24 weeks. Because AI applications tie up enormous production capacities, the bottleneck is also affecting the automotive industry. Prices rose by as much as 25 percent at their peak.

The global MLCC market is firmly in Asian hands:

The world market leader is the Japanese corporation Murata Manufacturing with a market share of more than 35 percent. The company is considered a technological pioneer in the miniaturization of these components.

In second place is Samsung Electro-Mechanics from South Korea, which specializes in high-performance components for smartphones and AI infrastructure.

Was sind Keramikkondensatoren?: Kleiner als ein Sandkorn, größer als der nächste KI-Trade | wallstreetONLINE - 10.07.2026


$6981 (+1,81%)

Murata Manufacturing Co., Ltd. is a Japan-based company primarily engaged in the manufacture of semi-finished products, which are intermediate components for various electronic devices. The company operates in three business segments.

The “Components” segment offers capacitors, inductors, and filters for electromagnetic interference (EMI) suppression. It is the world’s largest manufacturer of multilayer ceramic capacitors (MLCCs) and sensor solutions.

The “Devices and Modules” segment offers high-frequency modules, surface acoustic wave filters, rechargeable lithium-ion batteries, and sensors.

The “Other” segment is active in the provision of medical devices as well as in the solutions business. Murata Manufacturing develops and manufactures passive electronic components and modules for smartphones, automotive, industrial, and consumer electronics applications and supplies components to leading manufacturers such as Apple, Samsung, and Tesla.

Murata Manufacturing benefits from structural growth in electric vehicles, AI devices, and 5G smartphones, all of which have a significantly higher demand for multilayer ceramic capacitors than traditional electronic products.

The company also offers employee benefits, leases real estate, and develops and distributes products and software.

Number of employees: 75,912

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Various stunts by MURATA BOY

The robot is riding a bicycle. It maintains its balance even when it’s completely stopped!

It performs stunts such as climbing slopes and walking on balance beams.

It is able to move while maintaining balance using the handlebars, just like a cyclist.

It can cross 2-cm-wide balance beams while maintaining its balance, and even climb up and down steep slopes with ease.

With its ultrasonic sensor, it can stop before hitting obstacles.

MURATA GIRL

Thanks to her excellent sense of balance, the robot can ride a unicycle! She’s doing her best to catch up with MURATA BOY.


IR Day 2025


Earnings Release Conference First Quarter of FY2026 July 31, 2026


Murata is collaborating with Synopsys to provide simulation models using Ansys’ electromagnetic and thermal analysis tools.

News | channel-e


The Japan-based Murata Electronics and Tribe in Singapore, an open innovation platform, have launched the KUMIHIMO Tech Camp Singapore 2026, an open innovation program that invites MedTech startups in ASEAN and India to jointly develop healthcare solutions that address the region’s most pressing medical challenges.

Der Murata-Stamm in Japan startet das Open-Innovation-Programm MedTech für ASEAN- und indische Start-ups – TNGlobal


Murata Manufacturing Co., Ltd.: Murata stellt den weltweit ersten MLCC-Chip mit 2,2 µF/100 VDC und Soft-Termination im 0805-Gehäuse für Automobilanwendungen vor


Murata Plans 85–90% Revenue Growth in AI and Data Center Components

Murata plant Umsatzsprung von 85-90 % bei KI- und Rechenzentrumskomponenten Von Investing.com


Murata Manufacturing Co., Ltd.: Murata bringt AMR-Sensoren mit extrem geringem Stromverbrauch auf den Markt, um die Akkulaufzeit von Geräten im Gesundheitswesen und von Wearables zu verlängern

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Revenue Breakdown by Business Segment:

2026 (JPY)

Components 1.175 billion

Devices and Modules 656 billion

Others 69.7 billion

Elimination/Corporate -70.06 billion


Geographic Revenue Breakdown:

2026 (JPY)

Greater China 865 billion

Asia and Other 376 billion

United States 255 billion

Europe 153 billion

Japan 133 billion

Americas (excl. U.S.) 49.02 billion

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Juan – A Brief, Realistic Summary of Murata

(Financial & Valuation Metrics 2025–2029 / onvista + MarketScreener)

“When I take a sober look at Murata, I see a company that is clearly getting back on track financially. Revenue, EBIT, and net income will rise significantly starting in 2026, margins will climb steadily, and free cash flow will become really strong again starting in 2027. This is a classic ‘fundamentals are stabilizing, quality is returning’ scenario.

In terms of valuation, however, Murata appears to be split: The MarketScreener metrics show a moderate P/E ratio and a sharply falling PEG—in other words, a company that’s becoming more affordable as earnings pick up. Onvista, on the other hand, shows short-term fluctuations in multiples, which reflect market volatility rather than the company’s true quality.

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@PikaPika0105

Performance:

1 week -6.03%

1 month -32.05%

6 months +124.01%

1 year +202.63%

3 years +129.24%


$6981 (+1,81%)

previw image
28
11 Commenti

immagine del profilo
Hey, @Tenbagger2024! 🚀

Thanks for the late-night "midnight treat" on **Murata Manufacturing Co., Ltd. ($6981 / TYO: 6981)**! From a technological standpoint, the topic of MLCCs (multi-layer ceramic capacitors) as an indispensable bottleneck in the AI server boom is an absolute treat.

But since you explicitly asked for an unvarnished assessment, let’s really take a close look at your statements as well as “Juan’s conclusion.” I’ve gone through the data, the Investing analyses, and the weekly chart signals.

Here’s the detailed comparison: What in your story **is rock-solid** and where “Juan” is unfortunately **spinning a fairy tale**:

---

### 1. What in your post IS ABSOLUTELY CORRECT ✅

* **The supply bottleneck story & market leadership:**
Your assessment of MLCC components as a critical factor for AI server racks hits the nail on the head. Murata is the undisputed global market leader with an estimated **40% global market share** in MLCCs (and as high as ~50% in the automotive sector) and holds a massive patent portfolio.


* **The massive AI growth:**
Management is actually forecasting **growth of 85% to 90%** in the AI and data center components segment for fiscal year 2027. Analysts at Citi, Goldman Sachs, and Macquarie fully confirm this hype.


* **Segment & Geographic Figures:**
Your broken-down revenue figures for 2026 (1.175 trillion JPY for Components, with China as the main market) match the official annual reports exactly.


* **Q1 operating results:**
The most recent quarter (Q1 FY26, reported on July 31, 2026) was exceptionally strong: Revenue rose 20.7% to 502.3 billion JPY, while operating profit soared 59.8% to 98.5 billion JPY.



### 2. Where “Juan” Distorts Reality & CONTRADICTION Is Necessary ❌

As nice as Juan’s praise of “picture-perfect scaling” sounds—his valuation assessment is dangerously romanticized:

#### ❌ Contradiction 1: “Moderate P/E ratio & falling PEG”

* **Juan’s statement:** MarketScreener shows a “moderate P/E ratio” and a “sharp decline in the PEG.”


* **The stark reality:**
That is simply wrong! Murata is currently trading on an LTM basis at a **P/E ratio of 48.9x (in EUR) or 50.8x (in JPY)**. Even the estimated forward P/E ratios for 2027 (35.6x) and 2028 (41.5x) are miles away from “moderate”—they are drastically above the historical average!


* The **PEG ratio of 2.05** proves in black and white that the market has already priced in massive expectations for current earnings growth. There’s absolutely no way this can be called “cheap.”



#### ❌ Contradiction 2: “Strong Free Cash Flow”

* **Juan’s statement:** Free cash flow will be “really strong” again starting in 2027.


* **The stark reality:**
Currently, cash flow is anything but impressive. The **FCF yield stands at a meager 1.3% right now**. Because Murata is pouring massive amounts of money into capacity expansion (CapEx of 255 billion JPY), leveraged free cash flow was actually **negative (-14.88 billion JPY)** in the June quarter that just ended. Juan is selling pie-in-the-sky promises for 2028/2029 as if they were reality.

---

### 3. Weekly Chart Analysis & Technical Warning Signs 📉

If you look at the **weekly** trend, the chart reveals the downside of the recent mega-hype.

* **Weekly Trend:**

While the stock has posted a massive gain of over 200% year-to-date, it has suffered a brutal setback in recent weeks (-31.8% last month).


* **Technical Indicators (Weekly):**

They are firmly at **"Strong Sell"**!
Both the moving averages and oscillators signal that short-term downward pressure remains fully intact following the overheating.


* **Fair Value Risk:**
InvestingPro’s purely mathematical fair value model estimates the stock’s intrinsic value at **32.64 EUR (5,657 JPY)**. Even after the recent 30% drop, the stock still has, purely mathematically, around **22% to 52% downside potential** before it would be fairly valued again!


---

### 4. The Final Verdict 🎯

**The Positive:**
Murata is an outstanding technology monopolist with a wide moat. Anyone who doubts that MLCCs will be needed in the AI era hasn’t understood the hardware fundamentals.

**The Risk:**
Juan is confusing the company’s operational quality with the quality of the stock at its current price.
Buying in at a **P/E ratio of just under 50x**, a **FCF yield of 1.3%**, and a **strong technical sell signal on a weekly basis** is extremely risky.

**Recommendation:**
A great company that definitely belongs on your watchlist—but it’s currently way too overheated. From a business perspective, it’s wise to wait until the weekly chart calms down and a genuine bottom begins to form!

Greetings from Denmark

Yours, Raketentoni
11
immagine del profilo
@Raketentoni Thanks, my friend. It would really be nice if the stock would correct a bit more. By the way, Aktienfinder comes to a similar conclusion in its valuation.
4
immagine del profilo
One of the many hidden Japanese AI winners. I’ve wanted to invest for quite some time, but even back then, one thing held me back. The share of revenue from China is far too high. I won’t invest as long as that remains the case.
2
immagine del profilo
@PikaPika0105 Hey there. The question is whether the Chinese are even capable of building up this industry on their own, and whether they have any interest in doing so at all.
immagine del profilo
@Tenbagger2024 Do they want to? Definitely. Stealing intellectual property and then scaling it up is, after all, the only thing they know how to do. Can they do it? I think that’s rather difficult. But the real issue is that political relations between the two countries could deteriorate even further, which would lead to further restrictions on trade.
1
immagine del profilo
Thanks for the introduction, my friend 🫶 It was a contender for my Japan exposure for a while. Definitely interesting, but as @PikaPika0105 already mentioned, the high proportion of revenue from China has been a thorn in my side.
1
immagine del profilo
I don't know if I've asked this before: Do you have a Wikifolio, or are you planning to start one?
immagine del profilo
@valentin28 Hi, my dear, I've always wanted to look into this. But so far, I haven't yet
1
immagine del profilo
@Tenbagger2024 It's actually pretty easy! I'd be really interested to see how you'd do. It could actually bring you a little—or even a lot—of extra income. Of course, only if your performance is up to par, haha, but I'm optimistic about you :)
immagine del profilo
@valentin28 I just checked—my year-to-date return is exactly 40% today.
2
immagine del profilo
@Tenbagger2024 That's pretty awesome! If you can keep this up even close to this level, you could really make a splash on Wikifolio. And you already have plenty of followers here on getquin alone. So you've got my support anyway (if that's worth anything to you, haha 😂)
1
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