1Settimana·

Thoughts...

I slept a bit badly tonight. And woke up wet. I mean sweaty, of course.

Over the last few weeks, I've been worrying more and more about whether the most important company in the world at the moment $NVDA (+1,86%) will maintain its growth rates and whether I'm the only one who has some concerns about the recent deals with Coreweave (they sell them chips and rent them back) and now Intel (they "buy" a customer). I don't want to go so far as to suggest that they are fudging their sales and revenues, but it makes me wonder.

Furthermore, I'm not sure if BigTech's Cappex spending will continue like this for the next few years or if 2025 was an exception.

We all know what happens when $NVDA (+1,86%) will disappoint. Not only the company's own share price, but the entire industry will feel the impact.

$ORCL (-0,74%)

And then recently this share price reaction at $ORCL (-0,74%) after they disappoint with their quarterly figures and experience a share price explosion due to an "order". An order for 300 billion dollars from a company that has not yet made a cent of profit and where it is not yet clear how its sales will be generated in the coming years.

Please calm me down and tell me that I'm just in a bad mood (again) and that the rally will just continue.

Now I'm trying to calm down a bit. Maybe I'll watch an episode of "Our Little Farm" to do that.

38 Commenti

Chris@Multibagger

1Settimana

The participation of $NVDA in $INTC was a strategic mistake by Huang at the behest of the US government, which had previously bought a 15% stake in $INTC. Trump and Huang arranged this deal so that $NVDA can continue to supply chips to China, but nobody there is allowed to buy them anymore.
But that won't kill $NVDA if they throw 5 billion out the window.

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Olli@Olli68

1Settimana

@Multibagger Do you think that $NVDA will continue to grow as planned? I mean, even without their many investments, which (have to?) bring them regular sales.

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Tenbagger2024@Tenbagger2024

1Settimana

@Multibagger
I don't quite see it that way. Could also mean independence from tsmc for Nvidia.
Improve margins even more in the long term.
And even see a competitive advantage over AMD here.
I think Huang will bring Intel back to the top with his expertise.
The Nvidia share has not been harmed by this news either. Which means that investors also see it rather positively.

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Chris@Multibagger

1Settimana

@Tenbagger2024 Of course, every company that $NVDA has invested in so far has benefited in terms of share price. I am bullish on $NVDA and short $INTC in the short term.

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Sansebastian@Sansebastian

1Settimana

@Multibagger and you think you can judge the participation better than the boss of $NVDA?

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Tenbagger2024@Tenbagger2024

1Settimana

@Multibagger
Maybe short AMD as well.
AMD with a P/E ratio of 68 is more expensive than Nvidia, that doesn't fit.

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Olli@Olli68

1Settimana

@Tenbagger2024 The P/E ratio at $NVDA is only as favorable as long as the growth forecasts are met. And I somehow have my doubts about that right now.

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Chris@Multibagger

1Settimana

@Tenbagger2024 I went long yesterday afternoon at $AMD. And what can I say. Still waiting for the USA opening, but....

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Chris@Multibagger

1Settimana

@Sansebastian For God's sake, no, but I don't believe that this investment $INTC will increase profits enough in the short term to justify a 30% increase in the share price. And that is the only thing that counts for me when assessing the chances of a positive trade.
You must never forget that, unlike most people here, my assessment is not long-term. I'm not interested in where $INTC will be at the end of the year or in 3 years' time.

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Sahnehäubchen 🦋.@Savvy_investor_2000

1Settimana

@Tenbagger2024
Without providers like Coreweave, many smaller players would not be able to use high-end GPUs at all. This is not fake sales, but strategic platform development.
And if Intel designs CPUs in the future that are optimized for NVLink or directly integrate RTX GPU chips, then Nvidia is no longer an add-on but part of the design.
And Nvidia will then not only control the high-end AI market, but also write itself directly into the DNA of the mainstream architecture, so to speak. Without friction and without resistance.

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Tenbagger2024@Tenbagger2024

1Settimana

@Multibagger
Maybe interesting for you

https://www.wallstreet-online.de/nachricht/19942658-usa-seltenen-erden-china-energy-fuels-st-george-mining-almonty-industries-fokus

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Visualizza tutti 7 ulteriori risposte

Charmin@Charmin

1Settimana

I use and deal with AI on a daily basis. We are still pretty much at the beginning, and the ongoing developments (agents, hives, etc.) require an incredible amount of power, and I see the trend increasing.

Of course, NVIDIA can't increase by 50 percent every year, but that's not expected.

I sleep very well. Perhaps also because I'm not interested in background noise and I'm focused on the long term.

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PaulPK@PaulPK

1Settimana

Something else . If it stresses you out so much that you have a bad night's sleep, then you're investing too much, or with the wrong money... So you shouldn't put your health at risk.

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Olli@Olli68

1Settimana

@PaulPK We will all die at some point.

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Charmin@Charmin

1Settimana

@PaulPK Correct assessment. If it stresses you out so much, then perhaps you should move to other assets.

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Tenbagger2024@Tenbagger2024

1Settimana

Just look at the valuation of AMD or even some US retailers, Nvidia is a bargain compared to that.
Nobody has any concerns about Apple with hardly any growth. Or look at Palantir.
But with Nvidia, everyone is scared shitless.🙈
Something's not right.

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Charmin@Charmin

1Settimana

@Tenbagger2024 That's what I've been thinking for months. Every now and then an "expert" comes along and warns. Against a company that confirms its valuation again and again like no other, is excellently positioned for years to come and has long since made itself irreplaceable for the "foreseeable future".

It's strange that we don't see such experts on other stocks (why do I have to think of Tesla now?) ...

In any case, NVIDIA will have a glorious future, which - currently - only has one real risk:

Someone invents a completely new chip approach that turns the game on its head. I don't see that.

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Tenbagger2024@Tenbagger2024

1Settimana

@Charmin
When I got into Nvidia in 2023, there were already warnings of a high valuation.
If I had listened to this, I would have missed out on over 500 percent performance.

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Eselai@DonkeyInvestor

1Settimana

Everything is doomed 👍

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Olli@Olli68

1Settimana

@DonkeyInvestor That's exactly what I didn't want to hear. ☢️

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Eselai@DonkeyInvestor

1Settimana

@Olli68 nothing is doomed?

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Olli@Olli68

1Settimana

@DonkeyInvestor ❤️

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D.S.@Propheteus

1Settimana

@DonkeyInvestor Hey, that's my part here. I'm responsible for announcing bloodbaths.......😂

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Eselai@DonkeyInvestor

1Settimana

@Propheteus Don't make a fool of yourself here. I've already doomed companies before you were even on getquin

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Pezi@Pezi

1Settimana

The rally will not continue like this, the only question is when it will end.

If your post corresponds to reality, how will you sleep when things really go downhill?

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Olli@Olli68

1Settimana

@Pezi Ok, I was exaggerating a bit 😉

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