Inspired by @MozartTrading you can now read my assessment of the 7 most important stocks in the US economy.
Let's start with what is probably the most boring of the 7 stocks. Apple hasn't done much wrong for years, but it hasn't done much right either. Overall, the operating business is moving sideways and the valuation is not cheap. Overall, however, you don't get a quality company too cheap here. There are certainly worse stocks, but there are also plenty of better ones.
HOLD.
META is also relatively boring, but at least significantly cheaper. Overall, I see more sense in buying here, but META is also relatively lacking in innovation and not very well diversified. META still refuses to break down how much revenue is made with which app, but as I see it, they probably make the absolute majority of their total revenue through Instagram and advertising. META has certainly been trying to broaden its base for decades, but even several years after my last analysis, they have not been really successful. At least they have a good M&A team because they have had more success on average with the companies they have acquired than with those that come entirely from their own company. HOLD
Can actually be summarized in a few words, because this is by far the most volatile share of the big 7. A share that has a lot of potential, if you want to believe the CEO's promises. But only then. Fundamentally, Tesla is not really understandable at all, you either have to have confidence in Elon or leave it alone. HOLD (or SELL)
$GOOGL (-1,31%) / $GOOG (-1,08%)
Is probably the slightly more exciting alternative to META, cheaper and simply more broadly positioned. Alphabet also makes a lot of money through advertising, but they also have several other irons in the fire. They have Cloud. They have Android. They have YouTube. They're also trying to do something in the direction of quantum computing and Waymo. Somehow Alphabet is at least involved somewhere in all the important topics. That's pretty good. In comparison, however, it's noticeable that Alphabet has also been responsible for a lot of pipe failures over the last few years. Of course, Alphabet is by far the best value compared to the other stocks. But there is usually a reason why shares are cheap. And again, no one wants to give you Alphabet, but Alphabet also has to fear by far the most pressure from regulatory authorities, even ahead of Apple and Tesla. Overall, however, it has to be said that Alphabet is better diversified than META and cheaper than Apple, which is why this is the first BUY rating.
The shooting star par excellence. Nvidia is strongly positioned in the most important trend of our time and has very high market power due to its unique technology, which the competition is currently unable to keep up with. The only reason for this is that the business model is not particularly well diversified. At the moment, everything depends on the data centers and here I will let you in on an industry secret: they will not continue to grow at 30-40% p.a. forever. However, this knowledge is already reflected in the share price and has already been priced in to some extent. Compared to Alphabet, Nvidia is less diversified, but has fewer regulatory worries and better management. Therefore, there is also a very clear BUY.
Time for the first S-tier company in the mag7. Microsoft actually has the perfect business model and is represented in countless future trends. You have the cloud, you have gaming, you also have something like social media with LinkedIn, you sell your own hardware, you also have a search engine and earn money through advertising, but of course mainly through the subscription model. Microsoft is not the market leader in every area, but it is fundamentally successful in every area. And that's what makes Microsoft so special. There are markets in which Microsoft is absolutely dominant and those in which it is only number #2 or #3 it is at least enough to avoid being completely flattened and having to retreat. For example, they are not the biggest cloud, but at least they are the most profitable. By and large, this is what sets Microsoft apart from Google. Microsoft only really knows the word failure from the times of Steve Ballmer, who maneuvered the company onto very sharp cliffs a few times. The biggest fails in Microsoft's history, such as Windows Mobile, also date back to these times. I would love to try out an MS Surface to see how well Windows performs on mobile devices today, but in the past it was a real disaster.
But before I digress too much, I'll tell you that MSFT is definitely a STRONG BUY from me.
Drum roll here comes my favorite stock. Amazon started as a bookstore, is known to most as an online store but is actually so much more. As if it wasn't impressive enough that Amazon gets so much out of such an unattractive business model as e-commerce, they are also active in many other areas and are amazingly successful overall. When it comes to shopping, they often manage to be one of the cheapest providers and still earn a lot of money. They are also a postal service provider. And an airline. And a streaming service. And not forgetting the world's largest cloud provider. What makes Amazon so special is that they often build up business areas for their own needs and then sell them to other customers at the same time. This horizontal integration and the resulting synergy effects are amazing and offer further compounding potential, especially in the future. Together with Rivian, they build their own vehicles for their own delivery service and are then themselves their biggest customer. I don't think there's even enough space to tell you about all the business areas in which they are now active. For example, they are now also active in the advertising business. Amazon is a company that really excites me because they keep finding niches where the other big tech companies aren't really active and because they consistently push ahead with developing products that not only their customers but also they themselves can use. At the moment, earnings are still a size smaller than Apple, Microsoft and Alphabet, but they still have the potential to make the leap to the very top. Therefore, in addition to MSFT, a STRONG BUY.
