I've known it for a long time, of course, and I think we've even discussed it before. Logically, it came onto my radar during my market leader research in the defense sector. But despite all the necessity and operational excellence, the valuation is simply absolutely dizzying.
That's why I was so happy about your idea of $EXENS at the time.
I think Exail is mega, but the valuation leaves much more room for downside than upside in my view.🫣
That's why I was so happy about your idea of $EXENS at the time.
I think Exail is mega, but the valuation leaves much more room for downside than upside in my view.🫣
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@Get_Rich_or_Die_Tryin Hello dear. I'm thinking about getting in before the figures. I think we were put off by the valuation issue when we first exchanged shares last year. And we missed out on some performance due to our hesitation. Similar to perhaps palantir. Because I knew that the issue of valuation would come up. In the end, I made a sector comparison. And the company is still doing quite well. One valuation that I have always been able to rely on in the past is the PEG, and I like that here. And also the forward P/E ratio. As I could imagine that the figures could surprise, I am still considering an entry beforehand. In terms of the chart, the old high has now been overcome. What do you think of my thesis? I don't think the share should fall much further. Especially because of the current situation in Iran
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@Tenbagger2024 Correct, the issue of valuation was also our obstacle last year or at the beginning of this year.😅🫣
Sure, the comparison is extreme anyway if you look at the peers with Kraken and Kratos. Basically, I think your thesis is valid, you can definitely do it that way, I think.
Personally, I would hope that it will come back a little more clearly below €130, today the path to that looks feasible. I don't know when the figures will come out and to be honest, the margin profile is also too thin for me, with a net margin of around 5% there is virtually no room for executive fails.😖
Sure, the comparison is extreme anyway if you look at the peers with Kraken and Kratos. Basically, I think your thesis is valid, you can definitely do it that way, I think.
Personally, I would hope that it will come back a little more clearly below €130, today the path to that looks feasible. I don't know when the figures will come out and to be honest, the margin profile is also too thin for me, with a net margin of around 5% there is virtually no room for executive fails.😖
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@Get_Rich_or_Die_Tryin figures come at the end of the month. And I see the margins a little differently to you. I still see enormous potential in the margins in particular, and I could well imagine them doubling over the years. Which would then really make itself felt in the net result. That's why I don't see the current margin as negative. But rather as an opportunity
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@Get_Rich_or_Die_Tryin Take a look at the margins at Kraken Robotic. I think you could achieve the same with Exail. I still see potential in the margins in particular
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•@Tenbagger2024 Unfortunately, the majority of naval orders, which is what we are talking about here, run the risk of being delayed, sometimes significantly, during execution.
I'm not saying that this necessarily has to happen, but due to the thin margins, the risk cannot be dismissed in my view.🤷🏼♂️
And of course, margins can go completely in the other direction in the near future, but the risk of margin compression at the current level if even one major order goes wrong is much closer in my view.
In the long term I tend to agree with you, in the short term I don't see the overall profile at the current valuation level as ideal for an entry.
I'm not saying that this necessarily has to happen, but due to the thin margins, the risk cannot be dismissed in my view.🤷🏼♂️
And of course, margins can go completely in the other direction in the near future, but the risk of margin compression at the current level if even one major order goes wrong is much closer in my view.
In the long term I tend to agree with you, in the short term I don't see the overall profile at the current valuation level as ideal for an entry.
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@Get_Rich_or_Die_Tryin Didn't you want to tell us about your new strategy?
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@Get_Rich_or_Die_Tryin The profit flow chart is also an older one. Next year, the EBIT margin will be almost 20%. I don't think that's bad for an industrial company. Look at the aircraft or satellite companies with their thin margins, if they have any at all. You also have to leave the church in the village
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@Tenbagger2024 No, my dear, I don't have to leave the church in the village.🤷🏼♂️
My approach to investments, the parameters on which I base my valuation. I justify them with arguments. That may or may not suit you, that's what a forum thrives on, the exchange and different points of view.😊
And from my point of view, nobody needs to be convinced if they have a different approach and feel comfortable with it.😘
And: that's also one of the reasons why I'm not currently invested in any aircraft manufacturer or satellite company.😉
My approach to investments, the parameters on which I base my valuation. I justify them with arguments. That may or may not suit you, that's what a forum thrives on, the exchange and different points of view.😊
And from my point of view, nobody needs to be convinced if they have a different approach and feel comfortable with it.😘
And: that's also one of the reasons why I'm not currently invested in any aircraft manufacturer or satellite company.😉
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•@Tenbagger2024 Yes, I wanted to. Still to come. Just zero time for a comprehensive post at the moment.😩
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•@Tenbagger2024 and I have never badmouthed the EBIT margin.😉
But net and FCF are just thin. There are also industry picks where both offer "more leeway".
That's all I wanted to say, no more and no less.😘
But net and FCF are just thin. There are also industry picks where both offer "more leeway".
That's all I wanted to say, no more and no less.😘
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