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Will the CSPX fall in 2025?

Bank of America (BoA) warns that the current market, characterized by a rush of investors into growth stocks, often through passive investing, is reminiscent of past bubbles such as the "Nifty Fifty" and the dotcom era. While stocks may continue to rise in the short term, historical patterns following such bubbles point to potential future problems. This concern stems from the high concentration in the market, as evidenced by the market capitalization of U.S. stocks, which is well above historical norms compared to the rest of the world.

Do you think that the $CSPX (-1,14%) will fall in the remainder of 2025?

#etfs
#sp500
#usa

https://www.businessinsider.com/stock-market-crash-growth-bubble-ai-dotcom-nifty-fifty-sp500-2025-2#:~:text=Bank%20of%20America%20says%20growth,the%20S%26P%20500%20down%2040%25

8 Commenti

Tenbagger2024@Tenbagger2024

You can see from the current quarterly figures that most companies, especially tech companies, are continuing to increase their profits. As long as the majority of companies in the S&P can continue this trend, they will continue to rise. Only an event such as an economic crisis, recession, pandemic, financial crisis or similar will force the stock market into a bear market.

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VP@VPT

Please mark the correct link of the article.

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VP@VPT

I think it will continue to go up this year... or rather we can look back on low double-digit growth at the end of the year, provided earnings & balance sheets continue to be so stable that the growth comes less from valuations and more from earnings growth.
Corporate earnings remain high and US equities continue to outperform.

P/E ratios of the S&P and S&P Equal Weight diverge sharply, with the Equal Weight only slightly above the 10-year average.
The increase in the S&P is largely due to a changing sector concentration. Mag 7 and Tech are increasing significantly, but Tech is also valued differently and given higher multiples compared to many other industries in the S&P, so comparing today's P/E ratios to those of the past becomes more difficult.

My investment horizon is still long enough, so even if things go down there will be good opportunities again. And who knows whether a "crash" will come next week or only in 1-2 years. Therefore, let savings plans run :-)

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Robert@RP73

I don't think so. Americans are energized by Trump...make America great again.... and so on. In addition, all doors are opening for unrestrained production with falling government regulations (not having to take the environment into consideration makes production cheap). The Americans always find a way to remain number 1. As Buffet so aptly put it: "never bet against America"

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Epi@Epi

Big crashes on the US market usually fall in Republican times.
This cycle could be different. USA has about 130% of GDP in debt. This forces interest rates to stay low. This in turn should drive inflation up - probably also the goal of the T administration. This in turn could trigger a run on real assets such as equities and commodities. The current gold boom is a harbinger. However, this boom is likely to be relatively short-lived because the US economy will suffer from the new uncertainties.
So: S&P500 first up, then significantly down. 🔮

(Wait a minute! That's what the crystal ball told you last year. Is this thing broken? 😢)

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Hebel-Horst@DoppelSchlechtMinus

@Epi The glass ball will be fine. Statistically speaking, the old clock on my living room wall also shows the right time at least twice a day.

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Epi@Epi

@DoppelSchlechtMinus Lucky me. I was beginning to think I needed a new crystal ball!

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Andreas M.@thor88

@DoppelSchlechtMinus 😂🤣

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