5G·

How is such an opinion

I'm just wondering whether the glory days of M7 are over.

As usual, no investment advice, just my (sometimes somewhat personal) view on things. What do you think?

$AAPL (-0,72%) - I like Apple and almost only use Apple, but oh boy... there's just nothing more to come...

$MSFT (-0,63%) - in view of competitors like ServiceNow and Palantir (for me indirectly OS), the decreasing number of employees in companies, the growing cloud and data center alternatives... I'm also finding it difficult to say that yes, this will continue in the future...

$TSLA (-2,45%) - The air is out... I haven't believed in the story for a while now

$GOOGL (-0,84%) - phew.... currently very bad air with all the legal disputes... I'm already wondering whether the company will continue to exist like this

$AMZN (-1,04%) - I see difficult times in the short/medium term due to the external factors... but the need still exists, I don't see any real alternative either... would still be a good investment for me

$NVDA (-2,18%) - just like Amazon

$META (-1,37%) - is not a business for me personally anyway, but they make money with it... I admit... I have no reasonable opinion about it

16 Commenti

userc818a6f2df6247c9@userc818a6f2df6247c9

$AMZN offers the internet from space, $GOOGL builds self-driving cars and cabs, $GOOGL and $MSFT build quantum computers... All these companies earn cash and work for you. They may not be real innovations, but they will continue...

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Nobody@Nobody_123

@userc818a6f2df6247c9 yes, that's right

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Kreua@Kreua

@userc818a6f2df6247c9 - Agreement. What is important is the innovative strength beyond the current "core business". If we manage to successfully monetize AI and full self-driving, human robotics, quantum computing and possibly space travel, we will remain a club member. Personally, I think $AAPL has the lowest chances in this respect; I have never been able to form a clear opinion on $TSLA.

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Marcel@Mcl1991

I'm not an Apple fan boy. But I doubt that there's nothing more to come. AI will certainly continue to find its way into all devices. Apart from that, it's this Apple bubble that has been created in which Apple fans (have to) operate and these products also feel like a status symbol for many. I doubt that Apple will be a high-flyer again. But I don't believe in underperformance.

Windows is still the most popular OS in the world. By a wide margin.
https://de.statista.com/infografik/22410/marktanteil-fuehrender-pc-betriebssysteme/
MS Office products are also very popular. Here, too, I estimate that AI will continue to gain ground. And the status of Windows will not be challenged by other OSs. Just like the Office products.

Tesla is a thing of its own. The political events and actions of Musk are now in the image of the company. Technologically, they will certainly still achieve something and what Tesla delivers in terms of price/performance is already impressive. Even with the small car for €25k that is still to come (whenever...). However, the image has been damaged. I don't know how widespread the damage is around the world. In Europe, however, it is already noticeable.

Doubt the continued existence of Google? No way... Google Search, Android, YouTube, Cloud, Mail... Just to name a few. The company is just as indispensable as Microsoft and Apple.

I would go with Amazon. The tariffs can certainly be painful, just like the global political disputes.
But Amazon is Amazon and I don't see any real competition. Apart from the delivery service, there's also the cloud, TV, etc.

I'm also going with Nvidia and Meta.

To summarize: I believe that AI will become much more prevalent in all IT companies, making devices more powerful, and that companies will come up with a lot more ideas in the future that we're not even thinking about now.
One example that comes to mind is chatgpt. We hardly noticed anything about it. Suddenly it was there, most people were totally taken aback and now many people use it almost every day. That's IT.

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Nobody@Nobody_123

@Mcl1991 I did not write that the companies are going bankrupt, but that I am concerned that the peak has been reached...

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batic420@batic420

I have to admit that I find your statements really difficult 😅

$MSFT has delivered good figures and has managed to establish itself in the business and consumer sector like no other. They provide Windows, the world's most widely used operating system, have Azure, a cloud provider that is an absolute cash cow and ensure that companies can work productively with their Office365 apps. All of this in a very well-functioning ecosystem.

$AMZN is the marketplace for goods that are sold online. Everyone can find what they are looking for here. With AWS, you also have a cloud provider that is popular with companies and is absolutely future-proof in my opinion. They are investing heavily in AI and continuing to expand their data centers.

$NVDA Since the AI boom, AWS has been one of the favorites for anyone who thinks highly of themselves and wants to integrate AI into their business processes. Their hardware runs in huge data centers and ensures that AI continues to advance. With CUDA, they have also created a platform for developers that is also very popular.

$META is also one of the big players when it comes to social media and AI. Instagram, FaceBook, WhatsApp, etc. are all now owned by the group. The latest news about the company also only bodes well for the future. (Own meta-AI app, etc.).

These are just a few examples. I think it's never a bad thing to have a critical view of things, but if you really look at the big picture, you realize how established these companies have become. 😎

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Nobody@Nobody_123

@batic420 I'm not disputing any of that...obviously I communicated badly. I didn't mean that they will be insolvent tomorrow. They will all still exist. But somehow I wonder if that's all there is to it and the peak has been reached. I mean, what else is there to come? Except for NVIDIA with the demand and Amazon conquering other markets. But the rest... I don't know

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Simon@SimonSays97

They are all no longer innovative large corporations that use AI, rockets, robots, etc. to give themselves a hip image. Tesla gets its ass kicked by BYD. META and Alphabet are squeezing every last cent of advertising revenue out of their platforms. Amazon is dependent on cheap Chinese products. Apple will not be able to manufacture its products as cheaply and precisely in India or any other country. Microsoft is still squeezing the money out of its platforms via a subscription model and siphoning off data, even though Windows has long been an outdated and inefficient operating system and there are better alternatives. Nvidia will soon be superfluous because the competition, especially in China, is catching up and the AI hype will soon collapse. Then Microsoft, Alphabet and Amazon will have outdated data centers, in which they have invested a lot of money, and won't get any more out of them. Monopolies like Nvidia only last a short time. And of course, each of these companies has a positive outlook in relation to the trade war, because nobody wants their share prices to fall. They want to delay the final collapse for as long as possible. If necessary in the future with balance sheet manipulation...

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Nobody@Nobody_123

@SimonSays97 yesaaaaaaaaaa, we agree on many points... I sign many of them

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Tenbagger2024@Tenbagger2024

@SimonSays97
A lot of black painting.
Switching from Windows and Office to other software would cost companies far too much and is often not even possible.

Meta will develop WhatsApp into a super app. And will prevail with Cyber World and glasses.

Alphabet is active in several future sectors.
Autonomous driving, quantum computing, AI, etc.

Nvidia is constantly investing in new companies and small start-ups in the field of AI.
Robotics and autonomous driving will hardly be possible without NVIDIA.

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Nobody@Nobody_123

@Tenbagger2024 So you mean we haven't reached the top yet?

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Tenbagger2024@Tenbagger2024

@Nobody_123
Continue to see growth and potential

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Tenbagger2024@Tenbagger2024

@Tenbagger2024
But I'm only with Alphabet, Microsoft and Nvidia.

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Simon@SimonSays97

@Tenbagger2024 Who cares what the majority thinks? That's exactly your problem, you think nice gimmicks that are not the future are future growth drivers. That's exactly why everyone will more or less suffer a total loss over the next 10 years if they continue to invest money in such companies.

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Tenbagger2024@Tenbagger2024

@SimonSays97
What are your top companies?

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Simon@SimonSays97

@Tenbagger2024 Not a company. I sold the entire portfolio in January before Trump's inauguration and switched into short-dated € government bonds. In the hope that countries won't go bankrupt so quickly and the EU won't introduce capital controls so quickly. People don't understand the implications at the moment. And I'm not one of those idiotic doomsday prophets who have been saying this for 10 years. I've been in it since 2015 and have made very good profits. But certain indicators have been turning since last fall. The recession in the USA was already announced in late summer/autumn 2024. Since 2008, massive speculative bubbles have been created, particularly in the West, through extreme government debt and expansive monetary policy. Whether in US equities, crypto, real estate, gold, derivatives... The USA will have to refinance 10 trillion dollars of debt in 2025 alone. The auctions are going badly and many countries will sell US government bonds in the coming months. This means the Fed will have to buy. This means an escalating money supply and a flight from the dollar into gold or other currencies. Trump has triggered the collapse with his tariffs and economic uncertainty. Even if he were to row back now, the damage has already been done and confidence in the US has been permanently damaged. Regardless of the Shiller P/E ratio, Buffett indicator, price to sales ratio, price to book ratio, S&P 500 to bonds ratio, Dow to gold ratio, the US stock market is more badly overvalued than ever before. In addition, the yield curve for 10-year minus 2-year US government bonds has been inverted for the longest time by far. And it can be statistically proven that the longer this yield curve is inverted, the greater the crisis and the sharper the downward trend. What I want to say is that this will not just be any recession or financial crisis, what Trump has now triggered is the end of the West. What do you think will happen if the US slides into a severe recession now? Government revenues fall, the Fed has to help with refinancing, Americans become unemployed en masse, loans default, banks get into trouble, the state can't help... And the country is massively divided and radicalized. Black vigilante groups, radical left-wing groups and anarchists practicing urban warfare and stocking up on weapons and ammunition. The same goes for white supremacists, conservatives and radical right-wing groups. In addition, states that want to secede because they don't want to implement what Trump is proposing. I see the USA in civil war by 2030. Western Europe will follow. It's not about which share is better, but about how to prepare for the collapse of the West and possibly save some of the assets to get something from the farmer in bad times. People are dismissing it because of the mammon, but that's how it will turn out. The chaos will start in June when shelves become empty, and in July and August there will be no more ships coming from China. In July, the BRICS will publish their new payment system as an alternative to the dollar. At the same time, China will probably dump government bonds to further destabilize the US... And then let's see how much of a party there is left when food and clothing stop coming from China. Whether private investors will still be partying on the stock market for no reason and buying up prices, or whether all their money will go on overpriced food and they will become unemployed bit by bit because tourism will collapse and the logistics sector and car companies will shake...

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