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After more than 25 years of negotiations, the EU and the South American economic alliance Mercosur (Brazil, Argentina, Paraguay, Uruguay) have concluded a historic free trade agreement. This creates one of the largest free trade zones in the world - with over 700 million people and a combined economic area worth around 22 trillion USD.

This agreement could trigger global economic and stock market effects - for companies, industries and investors.

_________________________

🛃🚢 What will happen to the Mercosur agreement?

• Tariffs on up to 91% of EU exports and 92% of Mercosur exports are to be gradually eliminated.
• The aim is to create a larger single market, better market access, simplified rules and more stable trading conditions between Europe and South America.
• Until now, high tariffs have applied to cars (approx. 35%), machinery (14-20%) and chemical products (up to 18%).

_________________________

📊 Possible effects on the stock market

📈 1. industries with strong exports benefit from higher demand

Europe can sell its products more easily in South America:

• 👩‍🏭 Cars & car parts
• 🏭 Mechanical engineering
• 🧪 Chemicals & pharmaceuticals
• 🪄 Electronics & high-tech

The elimination of customs duties and fewer trade barriers will increase the margins and competitiveness of these industries.

Possible examples of Frofiteurs:

• VW $VOW (-1,14%) BMW $BMW (-0,31%) Daimler $DTG (-1,34%)
• Siemens $SIE (-0,63%)
• BASF $BAS (+0,4%) Covestro $1COV (+0,08%)
• SAP $SAP (+0,12%) , ASML $ASML (-3,14%)

➡️ Expected share price impetus from higher export revenues and capped production costs.

_________________________

🍖 2. agricultural & food sector in focus

The agricultural business is also becoming more closely networked on both sides:

• Tariffs on wine, oil, cheese, dairy products and luxury foods are being reduced or gradually created.
• EU producers will gain greater market access in South America; conversely, South American agricultural exports (e.g. beef, sugar) will have better access to the EU.

Possible beneficiaries:

• Nestlé $NESN (-0,54%) Danone $BN (+0,94%)
• Heineken $HEIA (+1,52%) AB InBev $ABI (+1,77%)
• FrieslandCampina $FCEPL

⚠️ However, critics point out that price pressure on local farmers* also arises and environmental risks can increase, for example due to cheaper imports.

_________________________

🚗 3. raw materials & energy: medium to long-term effects

Mercosur countries export large quantities of raw materials:

• Soy, sugar, coffee, ethanol, grain
• Brazil is also a major supplier of crude oil and minerals

One of the aims of the agreement is more stable commodity trade with fewer tariffs, which can influence commodity prices and move the shares of commodity and energy companies.

Possible beneficiaries:

• Vale $VALE3 (-1,84%) Petrobras $PETR3 (+1,79%)
• Bunge $BG (+1,91%) , ADM $ADM (+3,45%)

_________________________

🏦 4. finance & services sector

The agreement also facilitates:

• Market access for financial services
• Opening of telecom and transportation markets
• Opening of public procurement to EU suppliers

➡️ This could strengthen banks, insurers and logistics companies that operate across borders.

Possible beneficiaries:

• Allianz $ALV (+1,07%) Deutsche Bank $DBK (+0,35%)
• DHL/Deutsche Post $DHL (+0,48%) Kuehne + Nagel $KNIN (+0,86%)

_________________________

🔄 Short-term market risks

Not everything is automatically positive:

• 🇪🇺 Agricultural protests in Europe show resistance to cheap imports.
• Political uncertainties remain - many parliaments need to ratify.
• Sectors with low competitiveness could come under price pressure.

_________________________

📌 Conclusion

The Mercosur agreement could be an issue with far-reaching effects:

✅ Strong export industry gains new sales markets

✅ Agricultural and luxury food sector gains sales opportunities

✅ Financial and service sector benefits from market expansion

✅ Raw material exporting countries in South America could become more integrated

⚠️ At the same time, there are risks for local producers and price distortions that could have a regional impact on share prices

_________________________

Question for you: What is your opinion on the agreement? And in which sectors or listed companies do you see the biggest winners in the long term?

_________________________

Sources:

- 🌎🤝 Mercosur-Freihandelsabkommen zwischen EU & Mercosur unterzeichnet – größte Freihandelszone weltweit

- 💶📈 Wirtschaftliche Chancen für EU-Exporteure und Importeure durch Zollerleichterungen

- ⚙️🚗 Branchenanalysen mit Zollabbau-Effekten für Maschinen, Autos, Chemie etc.

- 🌾🥩 Agrar- und Rohstoff-Impakte durch neue Marktchancen und Quotenregelungen

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The new Nestlé $NESN (-0,54%) Group CEO Philipp Navratil wants to make savings and is cutting 16,000 jobs. The manager has increased the savings target from 2.5 billion to 3.0 billion Swiss francs by the end of 2027.

In his first major public appearance, Navratil explained that volume growth was his top priority. "To this end, we have increased our investments in a targeted manner and have already achieved initial results. Now we need to do even more, act faster and accelerate our growth momentum."

A lot of work is needed to get Nestlé back on track. Because when it comes to key indicators such as sales growth and share price performance, the food giant, whose products range from ready meals and frozen products to confectionery, coffee, Vittel water and pet food, is now lagging behind rivals such as Danone $BN (+0,94%) and Unilever $ULVR (+0,28%) are lagging behind.

Source text (excerpt) & graphic: Handelsblatt, 16.10.2025

Neutral performance after 5 years.

~ 1,000 Euro dividend.

Stop loss undercut

The British investment bank Barclays has lowered its price target for Danone from 85 to 82 euros, but left its rating at "Overweight".

The European food company's business should have held up quite well at home and in Asia, wrote Warren Ackerman in his outlook for the reporting season on Monday. However, currency headwinds are causing headaches and there are more questions about Latin America, for example.

However, the focus is likely to be on US consumer sentiment and the outlook there for the second half of the year.

Earnings summary this morning 👇🏼

$ULVR (+0,28%) | Unilever Q3 2024 Earnings

Rev €15.25B (est €15.398B)

DIV/SHR €O.4396

Underlying Volume 3.6% (est 3.1%)

Underlying Sales 4.5%, (est 4.25%)

Still Sees FY Underlying Sales To 5% (est 4.2%)

Still Sees FY Underlying Oper. Margin At Least 18%

2024 FY Outlook Unchanged

$BARC (-0,28%) | Barclays Q3 2024 Earnings

Pretax Profit £2.23B (est £1.96B)

Net Interest Income £3.31B (est £3.11B)

Investment Banking £594M (est £552.3M)

FICC Rev. £1.18B (est £1.13B)

Sees FY Cost To Income Ratio About

Sees FY UK Net Interest Income About £6.5B

$AAL (-3,33%) | Anglo American Q3 2024 Earnings

Diamond Prod 5.6M Carats (est 5.6M)

Copper Output 181,000 tons (est 181,334)

American Sees Fy Diamond Prod 23M to 26M Carats

De Beers To Continue To Assess Options To Lower Output

PGMS Demerger Is On Track To Complete By Mid 2025

$RMS (-1,73%) | Hermes International Q3 2024 Earnings

Rev €3.70B (est €3.68B)

Sales At Constant FX 11.3% (est 10.5%)

Leather Goods Sales At Constant FX 14% (est 12.8%)

CFO: Sees No Change In Global Trends Early Q4

CFO: China Higher Basket Spend Made Up For Lower Traffic

$005380 | Hyundai reports a 6.5% drop in profits in the third quarter despite an increase in sales, leading to a fall in the Seoul share price of almost 5%. Operating profit falls to 3.6 trillion won, while the operating margin drops to 8.3%.

$BN (+0,94%) | Danone increases its turnover in the third quarter by 4.2% to 6.9 billion euros, exceeding analysts' expectations. Demand is particularly high in North America and Asia.

$RNO (-0,83%) | Renault increases sales by 1.8% to 10.7 billion euros in the third quarter, but falls short of analysts' expectations. Exchange rate effects have a dampening effect on the result, without which a 5% increase in sales would have been possible.

$SY1 (-0,46%) | Symrise raises its forecast for organic growth in 2024 to around 7 % after strong sales growth in the first nine months. Sales rose by 6 % to 3.8 billion euros, driven by petcare and fragrance products.

$WAF (-2,03%) | Siltronic raises 2024 EBITDA margin guidance to 24-26% as acceptance of new Singapore factory is delayed. Third-quarter sales rise 2.3% to EUR 357m, exceeding expectations, while profit falls to EUR 19m.

$BEI (-0,74%) | Beiersdorf records organic sales growth of 6.5% to 7.5 billion euros, but falls short of analysts' expectations. Sales of the luxury brand La Prairie fall by over 7% in China, while the annual targets for 2024 are confirmed.

The market overview for 🇺🇸 & 🇪🇺:

US MARKET🇺🇸

Monday

• PACS Group ($PACS) and UL Solutions ($ULS) have potential IPOs.
• Neel KashkariPresident of the Minneapolis Fed, delivers remarks.

Tuesday

• Release of the NFIB Small Business Optimism Index (March).
• Quarterly reports from WD-40 ($WDFC (-0,87%) ) and Tilray Brands ($TLRY (-3,76%) ).

Wednesday

• Publication of the consumer price index (March).
• Publication of the wholesale stocks (March).
• Publication of the minutes of the March meeting of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC).
• Publication of the monthly federal budget of the USA (March).
• Speeches by Austan GoolsbeePresident of the Chicago Fed.
• Quarterly reports from Delta Air Lines ($DAL (-1,79%) ) and Applied Digital ($APLD (-3,89%) ).

Thursday

• Publication of the initial applications for unemployment benefits (April 5).
• Publication of the producer price index (March).
• Speeches by John C. WilliamsPresident of the New York Fed, and Raphael BosticPresident of the Atlanta Fed.
• Quarterly reports from Constellation Brands ($STZ (+0,38%) ), Fastenal ($FAST (-1,49%) ) and CarMax ($KMX (+1,76%) ).

Friday

• Publication of the preliminary Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index (April).
• Speeches by Raphael Bostic, President of the Atlanta Fed, and Mary C. DalyPresident of the San Francisco Fed.
• Quarterly reports from JPMorgan Chase ($JPM (+0,17%) ), Wells Fargo ($WFC (+1,35%) ), BlackRock ($BLK ), Citigroup ($C (-0,44%) ), State Street ($STT (-0,95%) ) and Progressive ($PGR (+0,58%) ).

EUROPEAN MARKET🇪🇺

Monday

• Publication of Industrial Production Index🇪🇺

Tuesday

• ZEW Economic Sentiment🇩🇪 will be published
• Quarterly reports from Ericsson ($ERIC A (+2,06%) )🇸🇪, Beiersdorf AG ($BEI (-0,74%) )🇩🇪, Sika ($SIKA (-0,95%) )🇨🇭, Rio Tinto PLC ($RIO (-1,31%) )🇬🇧

Wednesday

• Release of CPI data🇪🇺
• Quarterly reports from Hays ($HAS (+0,26%) )🇬🇧, Petershill Partners ($PHLL )🇬🇧, Just Eat Takeaway ($TKWY )🇬🇧, Entain ($ENT (-1,34%) )🇬🇧, La Francaise ($FDJ (-8,96%) )🇫🇷, Legal & General ($LGEN (-0,14%) ), Tryg ($TRYG (-3,02%) )🇩🇰, BHP Group Ltd ($BHP (-2,03%) )🇬🇧, ASML Holding ($ASML (-3,14%) )🇳🇱Volvo B ($VOLV B (-0,51%) )🇸🇪, Severstal ($CHMF )🇷🇺

thursday

• Publication of Construction Output🇪🇺
• Quarterly reports from Danone ($BN (+0,94%) )🇫🇷, Nokia Oyj ($NOKIA (+3,28%) )🇫🇮, Tele2 AB ($TEL2 B (-0,38%) )🇸🇪

Yesterday it became known that Russia is taking control of Danone's and Carlsberg's shares in their Russian subsidiaries by presidential decree. This is despite the fact that both companies had announced that they would leave the Russian market because of the Ukraine war. The decree names the Russian state as the temporary administrator of the shares of Danone Russia and Carlsberg's Baltika subsidiary.

Danone said it was reviewing the situation and would take measures to protect its rights as a shareholder in Danone Russia and its business operations. The company had already announced that it would end most of its operations in Russia, retaining only its infant formula business. Danone stresses that Russia's decision will have no impact on Danone's financial targets for 2023. Now that's something to look forward to!

Carlsberg is also affected by the measure. Its Baltika subsidiary is a leading brewer in Russia. Carlsberg had already announced that it would cease its operations in Russia and find a buyer. The presidential decree now probably brings uncertainty into the sales process.

I didn't know that a country could take over shares in foreign companies by decree. Did you know that? How do you think the situation will develop for $BN (+0,94%) and $CARL A (+0,79%) in Russia continue to develop? I checked stock prices earlier and both stocks dropped after the presidential decree. 📉

Water - chemistry in everyday life

Today a topic is announced, which stood above all by Nestle $NESN (-0,54%) in the last few months. But even on hot summer days, our livelihood and the business behind it are discussed again and again.

What was with Nestle?

Nestle is almost permanently in the criticism. I expressly ask that the activities and personal opinions under the post not be made known. The business unit "Nestle Waters" operates production sites in about 34 countries, for example for the table water "Pure Life". The criticism behind this refers to the production sites in areas where there is traditionally a shortage and, in accordance with pumping, the groundwater level is further lowered. I will leave it open whether Nestle is primarily to blame in this respect. In any case, it is important to remember that water licenses are officially sold to Nestle in all countries. Nevertheless, some YouTubers have realized that they can generate a lot of attention and money by denouncing international corporations. I hope at least that they will think about this in the future when they enjoy their Wagner pizza or their Kitkat in live streams. Otherwise, that would be tantamount to a double standard ...

Whatever one may think about it. There is definitely a danger of nationalization in the event of water shortages at private waterworks. Therefore, I would generally exclude an investment in this respect. In drinking water treatment, however, one cannot do without the private sector. The uses of the individual products are too varied for them to be used specifically for water.

But what is the situation in Germany?

Based on the Food Act, Germany has the Drinking Water Ordinance. The aim of the ordinance is to protect human health and to ensure quality and purity. Since the 2012 update, the problems of legionella have also been taken into account. The suppliers are responsible for this.

More precisely defined are the data in the annexes of the Drinking Water Ordinance itself. https://www.gesetze-im-internet.de/trinkwv_2001/BJNR095910001.html

But how do I now manage to make water usable?

Of course, this depends first and foremost on your regional origin. Water always has different quality classes and must be processed differently accordingly. According to the German Federal Environment Agency, almost 63% of drinking water comes from groundwater. Significant differences exist, however, especially in the east/west comparison. The irregular and ruthless planned economy of the former GDR has left its mark on the environment even today. In general, however, there are always strong impairments along the industrial metropolises. While the Saale, Oder, Ruhr and Ems rivers in particular bear the marks of industrialization, the soils around the chemical sites of central Germany in particular are still heavily impaired. I have taken corresponding accusations from the Water and Soil Atlas.

But why this huge introduction now?

Both in the air and in the soil we have countless impurities or even toxic particles. These are washed out by rain, get into the soil and thus ultimately into the groundwater.

In the course of this, suitable methods must now be found to maintain our drinking water quality.

Basically, we have the possibility to separate the substances from the water mechanically, thermally or chemically.

How does this work?

Due to the difference in regional water qualities, drinking water treatment must of course always be considered very specifically. Nevertheless, chemical treatment with ozone is always the first step. The treated drinking water is then fed into the public network via mechanical separation stages, such as sedimentation and filtration, through to chemical separation with regard to the degree of flocculation and pH value regulation. Samples are regularly taken by the authorities and tested in independent laboratories.

But who benefits from drinking water treatment?

From a personal point of view, I consider the investment in a private drinking water producer, such as Nestle or Danone, as risky. $BN (+0,94%) as risky. One can be denounced too much in the public perception and the more likely a discontinuation of the table water can become. Furthermore, especially in countries where there are shortages, one may well expect nationalization of the production and treatment facilities.

In addition, there are lucrative and promising opportunities for participation in the suppliers.

An investment in the treatment of drinking water can necessarily be linked to the treatment of wastewater.

The most prominent representatives of the private sector in this regard are American Water Works $AWK (-1,21%) , known as the dividend king. In direct competition, if one can call it competition at all, is Essential Utilites, but also United Utilites. $WTRG (+0,59%) but also United Utilites $UU. (+0,52%) in Great Britain.

On the German market, by the way, Veolia $VIE (+0,3%) with its subsidiary Veolia Water dominates the German market. It holds countless stakes in municipal waterworks. All in all, according to its own website, it supplies about 5 million people in Germany with drinking water and processes their wastewater.

Apart from direct drinking water processing, there are also very lucrative suppliers of drinking water solutions and quality assurance. The best known example is probably Xylem $XYL (-4,47%) . In addition to fluid technology, which includes pump construction and other equipment, the analytics division is a sunshine for investors. The broad range covers the entire field of water analysis. This means that the company does not only participate in municipal water systems, but also in industrial customers who are subject to legal requirements. It is almost impossible to find a direct competitor that is so broadly positioned in this segment.

However, if you want to give it a try, KSB's pumps division is $KSB (-1,91%) is very representative in Europe. Whereas in the USA, IDEX $IEX (-0,9%) can offer an alternative in the field of technical pumps.

But also in the field of chemical water and wastewater treatment, some companies have specialized.

Ecolab $ECL (-1,05%) , better known for cleaning agents and disinfectants, has been owned by Nalco Water since 2011. The focus here is on water and wastewater treatment additives, which are also part of any drinking water processing. Notable among these are slime solvents for biocides and legionella, as well as corrosion protection additives and hardness stabilizers.

Another particular competitor is DuPont $DD (-2,86%) . In particular, the "Water & Protection" division. The focus here is on special resins that can adsorb specific substances from water and also filter them. Depending on the sourcing, this extends into the nano- and ultrafiltration range. Ion exchangers can also be used to ensure higher water purity.

Have you used water today? Then you have probably already come into contact with one of these representatives.