The military escalation between the USA, Israel and Iran is causing strong market movements worldwide. Investors are shifting out of cyclical sectors and into security, energy and defense.

_________________________

Bitcoin $BTC (-2,86%) shows surprising stability

• 📈 In the meantime +8,1 %
• 💰 Just over 70,000 dollars
• Stabilization at around 69,000 dollars

Despite geopolitical risks, Bitcoin is apparently being used as a liquidity parking lot in the short term. At the same time, volatility remains high - further escalations could trigger new spikes.

_________________________

🛢 Oil prices up significantly

• Brent: + just under 6 %
• WTI: + a good 5 %
• In the meantime even +13 %

According to the report, the USA is currently no release from the strategic oil reserve. The market is still considered to be supplied, but the situation remains tense.

_________________________

🏦 Banks under pressure

The European banking index loses around 3,5 % - sharpest decline since April 2025.

Particularly affected:

• HSBC - $HSBA (-4,32%)
• Barclays - $BARC (-3,2%)
• Standard Chartered - $STAN (-2,25%)
• Deutsche Bank - $DBK (-5,15%)
• BNP Paribas - $BNP (-5,15%)
• BBVA - $BBVA (-3,91%)
• Commerzbank - $CBK (-4,57%)

In the USA also weaker until the US opening:

• Bank of America - $BAC (-1,07%)
• Citigroup - $C (-2,08%)

Reason: Strong Middle East business of many institutions and general risk aversion of investors.

_________________________

✈️ Travel industry collapses

High oil prices and uncertainty weigh heavily on tourism stocks:

• TUI - $TUI1 (-5,49%) (-11 %)
• Lufthansa - $LHA (-4,77%) (-11 %)

Flights to the region are canceled, travel offers suspended. Investors fear rising costs and falling booking figures.

_________________________

💎 Luxury stocks clearly in the red

The European luxury index loses almost 4 %.

Strongly affected:

• Richemont - $CFR (-3,82%)
• Swatch - $UHR (-3,11%)
• LVMH - $MC (-3,01%)
• Hermès - $RMS (-3,53%)
• Kering - $KER (-5,31%)
• Brunello Cucinelli - $BC (-6,02%)
• Moncler - $MONC (-5,65%)
• Ferragamo - $SFER (-4,82%)

Background:

Luxury is heavily dependent on global travel. Capital flows out of cyclical stocks.

_________________________

🛡 Defense stocks as clear winners

Geopolitical tensions drive up defense stocks:

• BAE Systems - $BA. (-1,77%)
• Lockheed Martin - $LMT (+1,97%)
• RTX - $RTX (+1,49%)
• Kratos - $KTOS (-1,88%)
• Hensoldt - $HAG (-1,68%)
• Leonardo - $LDO (-0,73%)
• Renk - $R3NK (-3,4%)
• Rheinmetall - $RHM (-3,03%)

Partial price increases of 3-6 %.

The focus is particularly on missile defense systems and possible increases in defense budgets.

_________________________

🚢 Shipping companies benefit

Transport values increase due to detour (avoidance of Hormuz, Suez Canal & Bab al-Mandab):

• Maersk - $MAERSK A (+0,22%)
• Hapag-Lloyd - $HLAG (-0,11%)
• Torm - $TRMD A (+0,48%)
• Frontline - $FRO (-6,86%)
• Hoegh Autoliners $HAUTO (+1,88%)

Reason: Shortage of transport capacity and speculation on rising freight rates.

_________________________

🥇 Gold in demand

• Gold price: +2,5 %

Profiteers in mining stocks:

• Evolution Mining - $EVN (-5,23%)
• Northern Star - $NST (-2,67%)

The sector has been showing relative strength for several days.

$4GLD (-1,45%)
$GOLD
$GOLD (-1,64%)

_________________________

📊 Market logic clearly recognizable

Winner:

🛡 Armaments

🚢 Shipping companies

🥇 Gold

₿ Bitcoin (short-term)

Losers:

🏦 Banks

✈️ Travel

💎 Luxury

_________________________

🔎 Conclusion

The market reaction follows the classic pattern of geopolitical crises:

• Risk is reduced
• Capital seeks security
• Energy prices rise
• Defense stocks benefit

The decisive factor remains whether the situation eases diplomatically - or escalates further.

_________________________

Source:

Reuters: Anleger greifen bei Bitcoin als "Fluchtvehikel" zu (Via TradingView)

In this video, I analyze current takeover rumors, merger scenarios and valuation opportunities for several large stocks: PayPal, Commerzbank and Netflix. I combine newsflow, fundamental data, chart technology and the VWAP indicator to classify possible takeover prices and trading opportunities.

💳 PayPal - split or takeover?

Rumors are currently circulating about a possible takeover or split-up of PayPal. According to media reports, Stripe is said to have signaled interest - but talks are at a very early stage. I analyze:

• favorable valuation
• Constant net margin of around 14.7%
• strong cash flows
• low debt
• Attractiveness for hostile takeovers

I use the VWAP indicator to show what price could be realistic for potential buyers.

🏦 Commerzbank - UniCredit before mandatory offer?

UniCredit currently holds around 29.35% of Commerzbank. According to BaFin, a mandatory offer would be necessary from 30%. I explain:

• why there is no threat of a takeover hammer in the short term
• why the current VWAP is close to the share price
• why the share currently offers little M&A fantasy

🎬 Netflix & Warner Bros - billion-euro deal?

Netflix wants to take over Warner Bros. Although the Netflix offer is considered preferred, Paramount has recently improved its offer to USD 31 per share. An extraordinary general meeting will be held on March 20 to vote on the offer. Analyzing:

• the massive share price reaction of Netflix (-50%)
• financing risks
• Long-term synergy potential
• Valuation after the slump

📊 Important brands:

78 USD = interesting

69 USD = extremely favorable

85 USD = clear buy trigger

Netflix is currently trading at a discount of around 30% to its fair value.

Watch this video to find out:

✔ which takeover rumors have substance

✔ how I assess M&A opportunities

✔ how VWAP works as a price indicator

✔ where I see long and short setups

✔ how to trade takeover fantasies

This video is aimed at active traders and investors who want to use M&A news strategically.

Which of the stocks would you rather trade? $PYPL (-2,53%) , $CBK (-4,57%) or $NFLX (-1,59%) ?

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wBTBJEIfd6s

As the share performed very well, it has now become my largest position. I am therefore now taking some profits. 300 shares remain in the portfolio.

Unfortunately, around € 1200 of this will be lost in taxes.

$BNTX (-3,27%)
$ON (-1,99%)
$HIMS (-3,49%)
$PLTR (-2,93%)
$O (-1,21%)
$8058 (-6,55%)
$7974 (-4,41%)
$BP. (+0,2%)
$BOSS (-2,04%)
$SWK (-3,73%)
$SPOT (-1,53%)
$N1CL34
$UBER (-1,41%)
$CPRI (-0,73%)
$SHOP (-3,14%)
$RACE (-3%)
$HOG (-0,71%)
$HTZ (-3,38%)
$PFIZER
$UPST (-3,59%)
$ANET (-1,51%)
$PINS (-1,68%)
$TEM (-3,74%)
$AMD (-3,27%)
$SMCI (-2,75%)
$RIVN (-2,25%)
$BYND (-1,11%)
$KTOS (-1,88%)
$CPNG (-2,17%)
$BMW (-3,46%)
$NOVO B (-2,56%)
$FRE (-4,29%)
$ORSTED (-3,68%)
$AG1 (-4,18%)
$EVT (-6,39%)
$CCO (-4,18%)
$DOCN (-3,24%)
$LMND (-3,03%)
$SONO (-0,89%)
$MCD (-0,15%)
$HOOD (-4,97%)
$QCOM (-1,19%)
$FTNT (-0,89%)
$FSLY (-4,47%)
$HUBS (-2,04%)
$ELF (-1,02%)
$ARM (-4,23%)
$SNAP (-1,49%)
$DASH (-1,42%)
$APP (-3,07%)
$AMC (-0,36%)
$ZIP (-1,12%)
$FIG (-3,59%)
$LCID (-1,75%)
$DUOL
$UN0 (-2,41%)
$CBK (-4,57%)
$DEZ (-5,84%)
$ZAL (-3,15%)
$HEN (-3,7%)
$MAERSK A (+0,22%)
$HEI (-3,8%)
$CON (-4,43%)
$AZN (-1,26%)
$ALB (-5,22%)
$MRNA (-3,71%)
$QBTS (-3,6%)
$WBD (+0,39%)
$LI (-2,01%)
$RHM (-3,03%)
$DDOG (-0,64%)
$RL (-2,2%)
$OPEN (-2,41%)
$ABNB (-1,76%)
$PTON (-2,13%)
$MP (-4,42%)
$TTD (-1,51%)
$STNE (-3,4%)
$SQ (-1,92%)
$GRND (+1,27%)
$IREN (-3,87%)
$AFRM (-1,59%)
$CRISP (-0,05%)
$RUN (-2,28%)
$7011 (-10,76%)
$DTG (-4,35%)
$HAG (-1,68%)
$DKNG (-1,57%)
$LAC (-3,82%)
$KKR (-2,56%)
$PETR3 (+5,1%)
$CEG
$WEED (-1,56%)

The German stock market was weak on Tuesday. Pressure was exerted on the indices not least by weak US stock markets, following the absence of trading in the USA on Monday due to Labor Day. The Dax slipped more sharply below the psychologically important 24,000-point mark, which has come back into focus since last week.

"Recently, buyers have always entered the market at the 24,000-point threshold," commented portfolio manager Thomas Altmann from QC Partners. "However, it is quite conceivable that this buying threshold will gradually shift downwards."

At lunchtime, the leading German index was down 1.1 percent at 23,784 points. The MDax fell below 30,000 points. Most recently, the index of medium-sized companies lost 1.8 percent to 29,914 points.

With regard to the USA, the main focus is on the reaction of the US stock markets after an appeals court denied President Donald Trump the authority to impose far-reaching tariffs on imported products on Friday, citing an emergency law.

"In Asian trade, the continuing uncertainty about the economic impact of the US punitive tariffs was used for profit-taking," said market expert Andreas Lipkow. In view of the power struggle taking place behind the scenes around the US Federal Reserve, there are currently many questions and the upcoming meeting in September is the subject of much discussion.

"An interest rate cut is far from a foregone conclusion." The upcoming economic data from the US, such as the labor market report on Friday, is therefore likely to play an important role. "Many new risk clusters are currently forming, which could still cause considerable fluctuations on the financial markets."

Among the individual stocks in the Dax, the FMC-Aktie ($FMC (-2,18%) ) brought up the rear, losing 4.9 percent. A sell recommendation from the major Swiss bank UBS weighed on the stock. Analyst Graham Doyle referred to structural risks with regard to business development in the USA and the danger of falling consensus estimates for the operating result.

Siemens ($SIE (-5,35%) ) fell by 2.8 percent. They suffered from a downgrade to "market perform" by Bernstein Research. Analyst Nicholas Green justified his move with the strong share price gains in recent years. Commerzbank ($CBK (-4,57%) ) , downgraded to "Equal-weight" by Morgan Stanley, lost 2.4 percent. At the current valuation level, analyst Alvaro Serrano wrote that further progress in the Frankfurt-based company's business plan is needed first.

In the SDax the share price of SMA Solar ($S92 (-4,96%) ) fell by 28 percent. The manufacturer of inverters for photovoltaic systems lowered its forecast for the current year and now expects an operating loss. The restructuring efforts that have already been initiated are to be intensified further.

The fact that the motor manufacturer Deutz ($DEZ (-5,84%) ) is expanding its still small business in the defense market with the planned acquisition of the Sobek Group. The share gained 6.0 percent at the top of the index. The Sobek Group is a drive specialist for drones.

Thank you dear Commerzbank - once again

Partial sale successful!

It's been over a year since my last presentation.

I have continued to pursue my goal of reducing individual stocks during this time. 🎯 I have now reached a point where I am saving a single ETF ( $VWRL (-2,01%) ) with €1,500/month and let all other securities continue to run. 📈

Buying individual stocks has become rather rare for me. However, one of these was a good buy last year: $CBK (-4,57%) with a current +120% 🚀as well as $MUX (-4,29%) which I sold at +33% (a little too late). My 12 Krugerrands also did quite well with an annual performance of around 31%. 🏅

I'm currently holding some cash for a good opportunity. 💶

I am happy about any feedback on my portfolio 🥳

$BNTX (-3,27%)
$KSPI (-1,5%)
$HIMS (-3,49%)
$MELI (-1,49%)
$PLTR (-2,93%)
$DRO (-10,75%)
$IFX (-5,38%)
$9434 (-2,16%)
$FR0010108928
$DHL (-4,1%)
$BOSS (-2,04%)
$CONTININS
$DOCN (-3,24%)
$LMND (-3,03%)
$BP. (+0,2%)
$FRA (-3,45%)
$PFIZER
$SNAP (-1,49%)
$AMD (-3,27%)
$SMCI (-2,75%)
$OPEN (-2,41%)
$CPNG (-2,17%)
$LCID (-1,75%)
$CBK (-4,57%)
$ZAL (-3,15%)
$NOVO B (-2,56%)
$VNA (-4,97%)
$BAYN (-4,2%)
$UBER (-1,41%)
$SHOP (-3,14%)
$MCD (-0,15%)
$DIS (-0,63%)
$ROK (-1,29%)
$ABNB (-1,76%)
$RUN (-2,28%)
$FTNT (-0,89%)
$O (-1,21%)
$DASH (-1,42%)
$DUOL
$S92 (-4,96%)
$DDOG (-0,64%)
$SEDG (-3,7%)
$QBTS (-3,6%)
$RHM (-3,03%)
$DTE (-2,45%)
$ALV (-4,87%)
$LLY (-0,36%)
$CYBR
$PTON (-2,13%)
$DKNG (-1,57%)
$RL (-2,2%)
$PINS (-1,68%)
$TTWO (-0,25%)
$TWLO (-1,57%)
$MNST (-0,07%)
$STNE (-3,4%)
$MUV2 (-3,37%)
$WEED (-1,56%)
$GOOS (-0,93%)
$PETR3T
$ANET (-1,51%)