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$9434 (+0,8%)
$FR0010108928
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$OPEN (+8,2%)
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$LCID (+0,4%)
$CBK (+0,54%)
$ZAL (+0,64%)
$NOVO B (+1,82%)
$VNA (+0,33%)
$BAYN (+0,54%)
$UBER (+1,16%)
$SHOP (+0,78%)
$MCD (+0,32%)
$DIS (+0,67%)
$ROK (+0,35%)
$ABNB (+0,79%)
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$PETR3T
$ANET (+0,96%)

🌍 Macro & markets:

Stock markets rose significantly, supported by a fragile ceasefire between Israel & Iran as well as falling oil prices. Additional tailwind was provided by signals from the Fed, which raised hopes of a summer interest rate cut.

✅ S&P 500 $SPY: +1.11% to 6,092

✅ Nasdaq 100 $QQQ: +1.53% to 22,190

✅ Dow Jones $DIA: +1.19% to 43,089

✅ Russell 2000 $IWM: +1.28% to 2,161

✅ 9 out of 11 sectors up - tech ($XLK +1.8%) ahead, energy ($XLE -1.3%) at the bottom

🚢 Consumer data & corporate news:

✅ Carnival $CCL (+0,58%)
: +6.91% - Strong figures with record sales, high ticket demand & record bookings for 2026. The forecast was raised, despite geopolitical risks the desire to travel remains unbroken.

⚠️ FedEx $FDX (+0,41%)
: After-hours -5%. Weak Asian demand forces 35% capacity cuts on transpacific routes. Full-year guidance lowered, shares down 17% YTD.

🤖 Developments in the robotaxi sector:

✅ Uber $UBER (+1,16%)
: +7.52% - launch of self-driving Waymo vehicles ($GOOG +1.04%) in Atlanta. Waymo with over 1 million autonomous miles & 150,000 paid rides/week.

✅ Lyft $LYFT (+0,58%)
: +6.09% - Analyst upgrade to "Buy", price target raised from $16 to $21.

📰 Other headlines:

⚠️ Fed officials dampen expectations:

• Bostic expects only one rate cut at the end of 2025, points to inflationary pressure from new tariffs.
• Barr confirms cautious stance, Powell signals "willingness to wait"

✅ OpenAI builds up competition from Microsoft & Google:

Own productivity suite announced directly in ChatGPT, including collaboration features.

✅ Anthropic achieves partial success:

AI training on copyrighted books classified as "fair use", piracy trial to follow in December.

✅ Broadcom $AVGO (+1,21%)
: New all-time high - optimism around AI chip pipeline, HSBC raises price target to $400.

✅ Nektar Therapeutics $NKTR (+0,45%)
: Share price doubles after convincing study on eczema drug, up to 90% symptom improvement.

🔎 Summary:

✅ Consumption & travel sector surprise positively

⚠️ Trade & logistics under pressure, especially Asian routes

✅ Robotaxi & AI with further momentum

⚠️ Fed remains cautious, next weeks in focus: tariffs & possible postponement of interest rate hikes

As part of my ETF DIY project, I analyzed $UBER (+1,16%) analyzed them using my self-developed valuation system:

Moat: 3/5

• Market position: +
• Uniqueness / differentiability: +
• Switching costs: -
• Technological advantage: +
• Brand loyalty: -

Growth: 5/5

• Turnover & profit: +
• Scalability: +
• Industry trends: +
• Ability to innovate: +
• Geographic expansion / penetration: +

Risk: 2/5

• Regulatory & geopolitical: -
• Market risks: -
• Competitive situation: -
• Balance sheet quality: +
• Sales diversification: +

Dividend: 0/1

• No dividend.

Belief: 0/1

• Concern about competition and relatively easy market entry barriers.

Total: 10/17

• Uber is saved with factor 3.

If you are not yet familiar with my system and the ETF-DIY project - just take a look at my profile.

The complete analysis and my thoughts on it can also be found on YouTube:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kI_7jhFIp-A

I just have to post my frustration right now

It's too cringe on Insta, but I just have to say that I hate this juice store soooooo much

Nothing really nothing works here

I'd rather pay my 300€ for $UBER (+1,16%) if I have to go somewhere than not to arrive at all

$MMK (+0,61%) is still stuck on the VWAP & POC, but the vola around the VWAP is getting smaller and smaller, let's see in which direction it will break out. Sometimes it takes a little patience. The price is still hovering around my entry at €75.31

With $STZ (-0,33%) a similar picture, the price is also still at the POC and at the lower edge of the deviation1 of the VWAP.

@Multibagger Are you still in with your ticket, or has the dip washed you out below the edge?

My position stands at -3%, but that is still well within my risk. The first attempt to move away from the edge failed, but it still offers good support. I'll sit this out for a while 😅

Well, and then there's $UBER (+1,16%)

After trading Uber in the VWAP range several times over the last few months, I cautiously re-entered after the 2nd breakout from the range. But then it fell back further than I had expected. But I'm staying in for the time being - my -5% position isn't hurting me yet. It will be interesting to see how the next few days develop.

Conclusion: 3 current trades, one around 0%, two slightly in the red - nevertheless I have confidence in the setup around the VWAP. I'll keep you posted.

As always, first the link to the first post, where you will also find the links to all the other parts https://getqu.in/cbIOkg/

Today there are a few more details on the indicators from part 3 https://getqu.in/9XGYtO/

As described in part 3, I start my analysis with the SMA 200 / 50 / 5 daysto get an overview of the trend.

Example $UBER (+1,16%)

For me, an important setting for the SMA is that I always use the SMA regardless of my chart setting always on a daily basis. daily basis. This means that even if I have set the chart to weekly or 4h, it always shows me the SMA on a daily basis.

Example $UBER (+1,16%) 1h hour chart - but the SMA are still on a daily basis, not like the default setting, which always refers to the chart - then the SMAs would be calculated on a 200 / 50 / 5 hour basis!

Next, I'll get the VRVP to see the volumes. I have set the chart to the range since Uber has been in an overarching sideways phase.

I can see the price area with the highest volume and the distribution where 68% of the volume has taken place.

My VRVP settings are as follows, I adjust the line size depending on the visible range - the larger the range, the larger the number of lines.

So, I now have a good overview of the trend after a few minutes.

Now it's time to continue with the VWAP. My anchored VWAP I place it in a prominent position for me. In this case the last low before the start of the sideways phase. This is how I see the "DNA" of Uber - How does Uber behave in the statistical areas of the volume-weighted average price.

For my short-term trades, I zoom into the close range, but the anchored VWAP remains. I only switch to the 1 hour chart and the last few months.

The white circles then show potential entries and exits for me. The orange circles at the bottom show the earnings, there's always a lot of movement😁

Of course, I also look in detail at the price action, i.e. the candles per time unit.

In principle, this describes my main procedure for determining the buy/sell point.

That's it 🤷‍♂️ has been working for me for a long time with the outcome as described in part 2 https://getqu.in/TVNdpR/

Because of the overview, I have hidden the VRVP in the VWAP views, but I always leave it on for my analysis.

Example anchored VWAP with VRVP and SMA5 for the short-term trend

Example anchored VWAP with VRVP and VWAP on a weekly basisI can see where the VWAP of the current week has moved. It's also nice to see how and where the big volumes of the week have positioned themselves 😁

So, that's a bit more detail on my setup. As you can see, with a little practice and routing, you can analyze a stock in a short time. For me, such an analysis usually takes no longer than 10 minutes and I know whether a trade makes sense for me and where to place my buy and sell orders.

PS: I have found a clever script on TradingView for some of my stock screener filters. You can always display some criteria live - in the chart at the bottom right

You can find it under the indicators: Ticker Dashboard For Better Stock Selection

$ADYEN (+0,47%)
$MMK (+0,61%)
$MRK (+0,73%)
$KTN (-1,13%)
$BRBY (+0,62%)
$OMV (-0,49%)
$VER (+0,45%)
$BG (+1,16%)
$VOE (+1,05%)
$ZAL (+0,64%)
$VRTX (+0,47%)
$RDC (+0,08%)

#trading

$UBER (+1,16%)

Uber share: Chart from 20.05.2025, price: USD 92.46 - symbol: UBER | Source: TWS

The share could be overheated in the short term, but the path of least resistance is likely to be the upside in the long term.

A key aspect of Ackman's investment thesis is Uber's potential in autonomous driving. In his announcement, he pointed out that the market for autonomous driving is potentially huge.

In recent years, Uber has strategically positioned itself to benefit from this development without developing the technology itself. Instead, the company is relying on a whole series of partnerships with several providers - also to ensure that no single provider achieves a dominant position and can dominate the market and dictate prices in the future.

Autonomous driving could reduce the cost of journeys, increase availability and significantly expand the addressable market.

Outlook and assessment

However, Uber is interesting even without all these future fantasies. I warned against the stock for years, but switched to the bull camp 1-2 years ago.

Uber has managed to expand its market position far enough to dictate prices - to drivers as well as restaurants and end customers. The business model is certainly not a win-win situation for everyone involved, but it has made the company highly profitable.

Free cash flow was positive for the first time in the 2022 financial year. In the 2023 financial year, FCF was USD 1.61 per share and in 2024 it was already USD 3.21 per share.

In the current financial year, an increase of 28% to USD 4.10 per share is expected. Uber therefore has a forward P/FCF of 22.3.

This means that Uber is even valued below average, the S&P 500 is valued higher and is unlikely to increase its FCF by around 20% p.a. in the coming years.

https://www.lynxbroker.de/boerse/boerse-kurse/aktien/uber-aktie/uber-analyse/?a=3355991664&utm_medium=email&utm_source=newsletter&utm_campaign=newsletter-boersenblick&newsletter=true&mc-rss-cache-bypass=2025052106&goal=0_d93daae099-c0d569347b-410756260#warum-bill-ackman-milliarden-auf-uber-setzt

As always, first the link to the first post, where you will also find the links to all the other parts https://getqu.in/cbIOkg/

Thanks to the bad weather, the next part will be published before the weekend! 🌨🌨 Next week I'll be traveling for work from Monday to Wednesday - so long posts will be difficult. But maybe I'll be able to pick up some exciting insights from SAP & Amazon. 😊

I'm pretty busy, but if anyone happens to be at SAPPHIRE in Madrid... 🍻

Today I'll give you an insight into my trading setupbut first I'll briefly talk about the outcome bias. This is an important topic that can become a trap, especially at the beginning of trading.

Outcome bias

Outcome bias is the misconception that the quality of a trade is determined by the result. Anyone who enters into a trade on the straight and narrow and then makes a profit often thinks they have got the hang of it. I like to compare it to a casino: I bet on red, win and consider myself "strategic" 🤪😅

When trading, it is important to success or the strategy by the repeatability by repeatability. By clear rules. A strategic trade can lead to a loss. An intuitive decision can lead to a profit. Anyone who makes the latter the yardstick for their trading is undermining long-term success.

👉 Remember: In trading, it is not those with courage and luck who are rewarded in the long term, but the systematic ones!

This leads us straight to the first details of my setup.

What are my premises?

• I only trade shares - no derivatives, leveraged products, KOs, Forex or anything else

I have tried a few things, but for my trading behavior shares have proved to be the most sustainable with the best profit/loss ratio.

• Keep it simple - Only a handful of indicators

Over the years I have tried all kinds of indicators and oscillators. From RSI, MACD, Fibonacci, all possible trend lines, so that the actual chart progression was barely visible 🤪

• I only trade when it makes sense according to my rules

Trading not just for the sake of trading. Quality before quantity, if it doesn't fit or if time is tight, then I don't trade for a week or two.

Now that you know that my focus is only on equities, I'll move on to stock selection. In my opinion, this is just as important as chart analysis and deriving entry and exit points.

What are my filter criteria for screening?

• ADR Average Daily Range

The daily range is the range between the daily high and the daily low, a large range facilitates short-term trading, e.g. intraday or only a few days

• ADV Average Daily Volume
• $VOL
  Average daily volume multiplied by the last daily closing price

These two filters ADV and $VOL ensure the liquidity to get out of the trade at any time.

• Market capitalization

I am not a fan of penny stocks and very small market capitalization

• Gap greater than 5% on earnings

• Upcoming earnings

I also like to trade around earnings, there's often a lot of movement.

In general, I like stocks that are moving in a sideways trend, or prices that are at the VWAP or at one of the outer edges of the deviation bands.

What are my indicators for chart analysis?

• SMA 200 / 50 / 5 for trend determination

Attention ONLY for trend determination - is not used for entry/exit points!

• VRVP Visible Range Volume Profile - the volume profile on the Y-axis. You can usually see it on the left-hand side of my charts. This shows me volume areas where there was a lot of trading. I derive my entry/exit points from this indicator and the VWAP

• VWAP Volume Weighted Average Price - shows me the average volume-weighted price at the various time levels. I usually look at this on a monthly and weekly basis. For very short-term trades such as intraday also on a daily basis or on a session basis. I then use the "anchored" VWAP for the entry/exit prices. In return for the fixed values of the VWAP such as month, week or day, I can place it exactly where I want to see the VWAP from. Points for anchored VWAP are swing changes.

• Volume per time unit I usually hide it again after the first glance in order to keep a clear overview. It's about seeing the interest per candle.

Conclusion: I only use SMA and volume, no more, but also no less.

PS: A short "deepdive" on the indicators, the exact settings, etc. will follow in a separate post👆 https://getqu.in/Ka18zh/

In general, I always start my analysis on the stock's home exchange. First a quick look at the last 10 years in the weekly chart, then I continue with the daily chart looking at the last 2-3 years and then the close range of the last months or even just days, depending on how the time horizon of my trade is set up. In the close range, I also like the 4h, 1h or 15min chart. The whole thing is overlaid with the 3 SMAs 200 / 50 and 5 days for the short-term trend.

Once I have a good overview of the trend, I move on to the 2nd layout with VRVP and VWAP or aVWAP. I am always happy when significant volumes of the VRVP coincide with the VWAP or the bandwidths 1 and 2 of the anchored VWAP. According to my statistics, the success rate is highest here. Depending on which exchange I want to trade on, I then also set the chart to this exchange.

I could write endlessly about volume in connection with the VWAP, but that would go beyond the scope of this article. Volume highs, volume lows, POC, volume area, deviation bands 1 and 2, etc...

To see how I use these indicators, you are welcome to read my posts on $NOVO B (+1,82%) or also $UBER (+1,16%) to see them. Or also my short 5min analysis for $MRK (+0,73%) which I recently created for my compatriot @7Trader recently. You can find them all in the feed of my profile from the recent past.

Should I go into more detail on charts & inferences in my future trading posts? Let me know in the comments!

So, that's it again for today - have a nice week!

Click here for part 4

https://getqu.in/Ka18zh/

$RDC (+0,08%)
$KTN (-1,13%)
$ZAL (+0,64%)
$MMK (+0,61%)

#trading