Merck & Co

Merck $MRK (+3,24%) released positive news on Tuesday about a new, more convenient version of its cancer drug Keytruda. This development comes after a number of setbacks and is particularly important as Keytruda loses its patent protection in 2028. The new subcutaneous Keytruda performed well in a Phase 3 trial and could be a serious competitor to biosimilars, which will be launched in 2028. Shares in Merck rose 0.3%, a small ray of hope for the company, which has struggled recently with problems with its Gardasil vaccine in China. The new formulation could also be exempt from Medicare price negotiations, giving Merck additional pricing power.

With $MRK (+3,24%) it gets interesting and worrying at the same time!

Next support: USD 88.33

If the support at USD 88.33 holds, this could be a sign of a recovery. This could mean that the price will move upwards again, as many traders and investors see this level as a good buying opportunity.

What do you think? What do you think about the share being so cheap? In the last 10 years it has rarely been so cheap, if I'm not mistaken. Do you think the support at USD 88.33 will hold? And if so, how could the share price develop? Let us know your opinions and assessments in the comments!

Analyst updates, 15.11. 👇🏼

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- JEFFERIES raises the price target for ASML from EUR 760 to EUR 840. Buy. $ASML (+3,19%)

- RBC raises the price target for TESLA from USD 249 to USD 313. Outperform. $TSLA (+0,05%)

- JPMORGAN raises the price target for WALT DISNEY from USD 125 to USD 128. Overweight. $DIS (+1,21%)

- JPMORGAN raises the price target for SIEMENS from EUR 215 to EUR 230. Overweight. $SIE (-0,41%)

- BARCLAYS raises the target price for SIEMENS ENERGY from EUR 21 to EUR 35. Equal-Weight. $ENR (+3,25%)

- LBBW raises the target price for EON from EUR 13.80 to EUR 13.90. Buy. $EOAN (+0,26%)

- HAUCK AUFHÄUSER IB raises the target price for ADESSO from EUR 80 to EUR 85. Hold. $ADN1 (+2,73%)

- DEUTSCHE BANK RESEARCH raises the target price for BURBERRY from GBP 7.40 to GBP 8.60. Hold. $BRBY (+1,55%)

- BERENBERG raises the price target for TALANX from EUR 76.20 to EUR 91.10. Buy. $TLX (+0,87%)

- BERENBERG raises the price target for HAPAG-LLOYD from EUR 163 to EUR 169. Hold. $HLAG (-2,2%)

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- JPMORGAN lowers the price target for BAYER from EUR 34 to EUR 25. Neutral. $BAYN (-0,14%)

- SANTANDER downgrades SHELL from Neutral to Outperform and lowers target price from GBP 30.50 to GBP 30. $SHEL (+1,41%)

- WARBURG RESEARCH lowers the price target for SECUNET from EUR 216 to EUR 210. Buy. $YSN (+3,55%)

- METZLER lowers the price target for SIXT-STÄMME from EUR 105 to EUR 95. Buy. $SIX2 (-1,06%)

- ODDO BHF lowers the target price for MERCK KGAA from EUR 187 to EUR 176. Outperform. $MRK (+3,24%)

- METZLER lowers the price target for SMA SOLAR from EUR 20 to EUR 16. Hold. $S92 (-3,24%)

- DEUTSCHE BANK RESEARCH lowers the price target for GRENKE from EUR 28 to EUR 24. Buy. $GLJ (-2,51%)

- BERENBERG lowers the target price for K+S from EUR 15.70 to EUR 14.70. Buy. $SDF (-1,36%)

- BERENBERG lowers the price target for AUMANN from EUR 17 to EUR 14.50. Hold. $AAG (-0,88%)

- BERENBERG lowers the price target for DERMAPHARM from EUR 58 to EUR 50. Buy. $DMP (-0,6%)

- BARCLAYS lowers the price target for SYMRISE from EUR 123 to EUR 115. Equal-Weight. $SY1 (+0,82%)

Summary Earnings, 14.11. 👇🏼

Siemens AG Q4 24 Earnings: $SIE (-0,41%)

- Orders At 22.93Bln Euros (est 21.36 Bln Euros)

- Revenue Rising 1% To 20.81 Bln Euros (est 20.77 Bln Euros)

- Profit 3.12 Bln Euros (est 3.0 Bln Euros)

- Net Income Of 1.90 Bln Euros (est 1.80 Bln Euros)

Swiss Re Q3 24 Earnings: $SREN (+1,31%)

- Net Income Of $2.2 Billion For The First Nine Months Of 2024

- 9m Return On Investments (ROI) Of 3.9%; Recurring Income Yield Of 4.0%

- Return On Equity (ROE) Of 13.4% For First Nine Months Of Year

- Still Expects To Achieve A Group Net Income Of More Than $3 Billion For 2024

- Currently Expects Losses Resulting From Hurricane Milton To Be Less Than $300 Mln, Which Will Impact Group Results In Q4 2024

E.ON SE 9M 24 Earnings: $EOAN (+0,26%)

- Adj EBIT EU4.37B, -23% (Y/Y)

- Sales EU56.28B, -19% (Y/Y)

- Still Sees FY Adj EBITDA EU8.8B To EU9B, (est EU8.94B)

- Still Sees FY Adj Net EU2.8B To EU3B (est 2.92B)

Deutsche Telekom AG Q3 24 Earnings: $DTE (+0,38%)

- Net Income EUR 2.957B (est EUR 2.396B)

- Adjusted EBITDA AL EU11.10B (est 11.05B)

- Rev EU28.50B (est 28.39B)

- Sees FY Adj EBITDA Al About EU43B

ASML is sticking to its long-term goals and plans to increase sales to between 44 and 60 billion euros by 2030, with a gross margin of 56 to 60 percent. Despite the current difficult market conditions, ASML CEO Christophe Fouquet sees promising long-term prospects for the semiconductor industry, especially due to the AI trend. $ASML (+3,19%)

Talanx expects a record profit of over 1.9 billion euros for 2024 and a surplus of over 2.1 billion euros for 2025. The profit increase will be supported by primary insurance and new targets are to be presented at the Capital Markets Day on December 11. $TLX (+0,87%)

Nagarro increased sales by 3.7 percent to 242.9 million euros in the third quarter and adjusted EBITDA by a good eight percent to 34.6 million euros. The company is adjusting its revenue forecast for 2024 to 960 million euros and expects an EBITDA margin of over 14 percent. $NA9 (+1,08%)

Adesso recorded an increase in turnover of 15 percent to 330 million euros in the third quarter and a 37 percent rise in operating profit to 38.9 million euros. Jörg Schroeder will step down as Chief Financial Officer on April 30, 2025; his successor will be Michael Knopp from January 15, 2025. $ADN1 (+2,73%)

Dermapharm increases turnover in the first nine months by just under three percent to 890.1 million euros, while adjusted EBITDA falls slightly to just over 240 million euros. However, consolidated net income rose to just under 93 million euros, and the Group CEO is optimistic for the final quarter. $DMP (-0,6%)

Energiekontor sees itself on course for its annual targets after nine months with an expected pre-tax result of EUR 30 to 70 million, although the upper end of the range will not be reached due to the below-average wind year. Three projects with 79 MW have already been commissioned this year and several more projects are currently being marketed. $EKT (-2,53%)

The financial services provider MLP increased revenue by twelve percent to EUR 746 million in the first nine months and EBIT by almost half to EUR 66 million. The company confirms its forecast for 2024 with EBIT of between EUR 85 and 95 million and expects EBIT of EUR 100 to 110 million in 2025. $MLP (+0,42%)

GFT Technologies is again lowering its annual targets and now expects revenue growth of 10 percent to around EUR 865 million and adjusted EBIT of around EUR 77 million. Profit before taxes is expected to fall to around EUR 65 million, as the environment remains challenging and momentum in the coming months will be lower than expected. $GFT (-0,91%)

ProSiebenSat.1 is lowering its forecast for the year due to weak TV advertising revenues and expects an adjusted operating result of less than EUR 575 million. The Group plans to sell Flaconi and Verivox in order to invest in Joyn, programs and debt reduction. $PSM (+0,04%)

Wacker Neuson is again lowering its annual targets and now expects revenue of EUR 2.2 to 2.3 billion and an EBIT margin of 5.5 to 6.5 percent. In the third quarter, the company reports a drop in revenue of over 20 percent and a 61 percent fall in EBIT. $WAC (+1,83%)

Cewe confirms its annual targets with sales of between 770 and 820 million euros and an EBIT of 77 to 87 million euros, with the upper half of the ranges being targeted. The company generates most of its profits in the Christmas quarter and posts a marginally positive EBIT in the summer quarter, despite increased marketing expenditure. $CWC (-0,9%)

Merck KGaA reports a 1.8 percent increase in sales to 5.3 billion euros in the third quarter, while the adjusted operating result rises by 12 percent to over 1.6 billion euros. CEO Belén Garijo announces that sales for 2024 are expected to be in the lower half of the previous range. $MRK (+3,24%)

Bilfinger records revenue growth of 15 percent to just under EUR 1.3 billion in the third quarter and increases operating profit by 35 percent to EUR 76 million, supported by good demand and the latest acquisition. The Executive Board confirms the adjusted annual targets with an increase in revenue to EUR 4.8 to 5.2 billion for 2024, also taking into account a savings program and special effects from the integration of Stork. $GBF (+0,45%)

K+S is revising its production forecast for 2024 downwards due to high sickness rates and now expects an operating result (EBITDA) of around EUR 540 million. In the third quarter, the company reports a decline in sales and EBITDA, with profits exceeding analysts' expectations but remaining below consensus estimates for the full year. $SDF (-1,36%)

Unpopular trades Part XXII

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Were sold:

$OHI (+1,03%) +33%

$MRK (+3,24%) +0,6%

$M&M +7%

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Purchased $UBER (+0,76%)

Uber is bringing the cab of the future to the road in an innovative way, with strong growth and now profitable: and I got on board.

As I said when I made my initial purchase, here is my follow-up purchase.

Figures were okay, higher growth than expected with a weaker margin. Should remain a one-off effect from the acquisition.

Cancer research and veterinary medicine should continue to grow

Posi now full

Merck and Co. Q3 2024 $MRK (+3,24%)

Financial performance

• SalesMerck recorded total global sales of USD 16.7 billion in the third quarter of 2024, an increase of 4% compared to the prior-year period. Excluding currency effects, growth amounted to 7%.
• Net incomeGAAP net income for the third quarter was $3,157 million, a decrease of 33% compared to the prior year period.
• Earnings per share (EPS)GAAP EPS decreased to USD 1.24, compared to USD 1.86 in the third quarter of 2023.

Income statement

• Cost of salesIncreased to USD 4,080 million compared to USD 4,264 million in the previous year, a decrease of 4%.
• Research and development (R&D)R&D expenses increased by 77% to USD 5,862 million, mainly due to acquisitions and related costs.
• Selling, general and administrative expenses (SG&A)SG&A expenses increased by 8 % to 2,731 million US dollars compared to the previous year.

Key figures and profitability metrics

• Gross marginGAAP gross margin was 75.5% in the third quarter of 2024 compared to 73.3% in the previous year.
• Effective tax rateThe effective tax rate amounted to 22.7% in the third quarter of 2024.

Segment information

• Pharma sales: Increased by 5 % to USD 14,943 million. Keytruda sales grew by 17 % to USD 7,429 million.
• Gardasil/Gardasil 9: Sales fell by 11 % to USD 2,306 million, mainly due to lower demand in China.

Competitive position

Merck continues to show strong growth, driven by Keytruda, new product launches and the Animal Health business.

Forecasts and management commentary

• Full-year sales guidanceMerck expects full-year sales to be between $63.6 billion and $64.1 billion, including a negative currency impact of approximately 3 percentage points.
• Non-GAAP EPS guidance: EPS is expected to be between USD 7.72 and USD 7.77, also impacted by a negative currency effect of approximately USD 0.30 per share.

Risks and opportunities

• RisksChallenges include declining sales of Januvia and Janumet and lower demand for Gardasil in China.
• OpportunitiesGrowth opportunities arise from the increased use of Keytruda worldwide and contributions from new product launches such as Winrevair and Capvaxive.

Summary of results

Merck's performance in the third quarter of 2024 shows a moderate increase in sales, mainly driven by Keytruda and new product launches, although there were challenges in certain segments such as Gardasil. The company is investing heavily in R&D, which is reflected in the significant increase in expenditure. The outlook for the year remains positive, with expected sales growth and a strategic focus on expanding the product pipeline. Nevertheless, currency effects and competition in some markets continue to pose risks.

Positive aspects

• Sales growth: Total global sales rose by 4% to USD 16.7 billion in the third quarter of 2024, with growth excluding currency effects amounting to 7%.
• Keytruda performanceKeytruda sales increased by 17% to USD 7.4 billion, driven by increased global utilization in earlier indications and high demand in metastatic indications.
• Animal Health segmentSales in the Animal Health segment increased by 6 % to USD 1.5 billion, or 11 % excluding currency effects.
• Improved non-GAAP gross margin: The non-GAAP gross margin increased from 77.0% in the previous year to 80.5%, mainly due to a favorable product mix.
• Strategic acquisitionsMerck completed the acquisition of CN201 (MK-1045) from Curon Biopharmaceutical, which is expected to strengthen the portfolio and support future growth.

Negative aspects

• Decline in net incomeGAAP net income decreased by 33% year-on-year to USD 3,157 million.
• Decline in Gardasil salesGardasil/Gardasil 9 sales decreased by 11% to USD 2,306 million, mainly due to lower demand in China.
• Increased R&D expenditureR&D expenses increased by 77% to USD 5.9 billion due to costs related to acquisitions and higher clinical development expenses.
• Decrease in non-GAAP EPSNon-GAAP EPS decreased to USD 1.57 compared to USD 2.13 in the third quarter of 2023, impacted by expenses related to business transactions.
• Currency impactThe company was impacted by negative currency effects, particularly the depreciation of the Argentine peso, which negatively impacted overall performance.

Earnings next week 🚀

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First purchase in the health sector