Altria Group

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ISIN: US02209S1033

Ticker: MO

US02209S1033

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Discussione su MO

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165

Mikolaj

@Volcano

2Settimana·

January 2025 Portfolio update

This month was quite special with a lot of opportunities. The biggest surprise was the phenomenal Q4 report of $ASML (-0,72%) . I was lucky to buy some more shares a few days before the announcement that's why the price I ended up paying is that good. I raise my personal buy target of $ASML (-0,72%) from €620-€650 to €680-€700.

$LMT (+2,16%) mixed earnings were expected by me but the price drop is quite good, that's why I decided to add more shares.

$PEP (+3,26%) have still very attractive price so I plan to continue to buy more and more. Currently, it's the 3rd biggest position in my portfolio and for now, I plan to keep it like this.

Transactions:

$PEP (+3,26%) - Bought x1.3 at $150.30

$LMT (+2,16%) - Bought x0.4 at $459.90

$ASML (-0,72%) - Bought x0.7 at €629.60

$TTE (-1,26%) - Bought x3 at €55.00

$PEP (+3,26%) - Bought x0.7 at $144.99

Dividends:

$MAIN (-0,54%) x10 Dividends at $0.25

$MO (+1,86%) x2 Dividends at $1.02

$VICI (+2,65%) x4 Dividends at $0.433

$TTE (-1,26%) x2 Dividends at €0.79

$PEP (+3,26%) x2 Dividends at $1.355

Unrealized gain/loss: +4.13%

Realized gain/loss: NA

2 Commenti

The W.@thewolfofallstreetz

2Settimana

At these prices, ASML is still a good buying opportunity for long-term investors in my view

•

TaxesAreTheft

@TaxesAreTheft

3Settimana·

Altria Q4/FY2024 Earnings Review

Volume:

Combustables: -10%

Total Oral: -1%

On!: +40%

NJOY devices: +22%

NJOY consumables : +15%

Market Share:

Marlboro: 41.7% -60bps

Copenhagen: 19.1% -440bps

Skoal: 7.6% -170bps

On!: 8.3% +150bps

NJOY: 5.5% +280bps

NJOY ACE

In the patent dispute with JUUL, the ITC rules in favor of JUUL. As a result, the import and sale of NJOY ACE is banned and NJOY ACE will be off the market from April 2025.

Combustables Volume

There is no end in sight to the ever-shrinking US cigarette market.

Oral

Copenhagen (-8.8%) and Skoal (-9.9) are now shrinking at the same rate as the cigarette market; in my opinion, these can no longer be counted among the "new" alternative growth products as once planned by Altria. On! sales figures look good, but market share can only be gained very slowly.

Conclusion

On the whole, the report is quite sobering to disappointing. The goals that were set with NJOY have now been discarded and can no longer be achieved. And statements such as "we expect the Altria's future earnings growth to be negatively impacted by further "RRP catch-up investment"." are more than disappointing for me.

For me, this shows once again that the $MO (+1,86%) Altria management is no longer what it used to be. NJOY is finally on the market and they didn't manage to check the patent situation beforehand. Cronos, JUUL and now NJOY. One can only hope that they don't screw up with On!

9 Commenti

Stephan Schnee@MrCumEx

3Settimana

LOL :D No, Juul does not currently have full approval from the FDA in the US. In 2022, the FDA banned the sale of all Juul products because it determined that Juul had not adequately demonstrated that its products met health standards. However, this ban was later suspended while Juul appealed the decision, putting the company in legal limbo. The FDA lifted the ban in June 2024, but emphasized that this decision did not constitute approval of Juul's application and that the review was still ongoing. Thus, Juul does not currently have final approval, but is in a process in which the FDA is still reviewing its products.

•

Aktien Stammtisch

@Aktien_Stammtisch

3Settimana·

Altria Q4 2024 EarningsReport Summary

$MO (+1,86%)

Altria navigated a challenging 2024, balancing regulatory headwinds in the e-vapor segment with strong performance in traditional tobacco. The company continued its commitment to returning capital to shareholders, announcing a $1B share repurchase program and maintaining strong dividend payouts.

📊 Income Statement Highlights (Q4 2024 vs. Q4 2023)

▫️ Net Income: $3.04B vs. $2.06B (+47.5%)

▫️ Total Revenue: $5.97B (flat YoY)

▫️ Revenue Net of Excise Taxes: $5.11B (+1.6%)

▫️ Adjusted EPS: $1.29 vs. $1.18 (+9.3%)

▫️ Gross Margin: 60.3%

▫️ Operating Income: $2.88B

▫️ Operating Cash Flow: $11.86B

▫️ Free Cash Flow: $5.12B

💼 Balance Sheet Highlights (as of Dec 31, 2024)

▫️ Total Assets: $35.18B

▫️ Total Liabilities: $37.37B

▫️ Equity: ($2.24B) [negative due to share repurchases]

▫️ Debt-to-Consolidated EBITDA Ratio: 2.1x

▫️ Cash & Equivalents: $3.13B

Segment Performance

Smokeable Products (Cigarettes & Cigars)

▫️ Net Revenue: $5.26B (-0.2% YoY)

▫️ Operating Companies Income (OCI): $2.64B (+2.3%)

▫️ Marlboro Market Share: 41.3% (-1.0pp YoY)

▫️ Cigarette Shipment Volume: 16.6B units (-8.8%)

▫️ Black & Mild Cigar Shipments: 431M units (+2.9%)

Oral Tobacco Products

▫️ Net Revenue: $692M (+2.7% YoY)

▫️ Operating Companies Income (OCI): $453M (+11.0%)

▫️ Copenhagen Market Share: 18.1% (-3.6pp)

▫️ Nicotine Pouch (on!) Market Share: 8.9% (+2.0pp)

NJOY (E-Vapor)

▫️ Consumable Sales Volume: 12.8M units (+15.3%)

▫️ Device Shipments: 1.1M units (+22.2%)

▫️ Market Share: 6.4% (+2.8pp YoY)

🔮 Future Outlook

▫️ 2025 EPS Guidance: $5.22 – $5.37 (Growth of 2%–5% from $5.12 in 2024)

▫️ Capital Expenditures: $175M – $225M

▫️ Regulatory Headwinds: NJOY faces ITC ruling impacting product sales by March 31, 2025

▫️ Dividend Growth: Commitment to mid-single-digit annual growth

▫️ Smoke-Free Strategy: Increased investment in e-vapor and oral nicotine pouch segments

3 Commenti

Thoranos@Thoranos

3Settimana

Good figures! And debt continues to fall.

•

S.A.U.

@SAUgut77

4Settimana·

Withdrawal of the FDA's menthol ban proposal in the USA

The Food and Drug Administration (FDA) is backing away from its previously proposed tobacco product standard to ban menthol as a characterizing flavor in cigarettes on public health grounds. The FDA argued that menthol increases the appeal of cigarettes, especially to younger audiences. The proposed ban was intended to reduce experimentation and use among youth while improving the health of current menthol cigarette smokers by encouraging smoking cessation.

The withdrawal of this proposal is seen as a positive for tobacco companies who would have faced the loss of a significant market share. In the United States, there are over 18.5 million smokers aged 12 and older who use menthol cigarettes.

The FDA action aimed to address the leading preventable cause of death and disease in the country and reduce tobacco-related deaths and illnesses associated with menthol cigarette use. The agency also hoped to improve health equity by reducing tobacco-related health disparities.

With the proposal now off the table, tobacco companies are likely to be able to continue selling menthol cigarettes without the threat of an imminent ban. This is reflected in the positive share price performance. The market reaction indicates investor relief as a significant regulatory risk for these companies has been removed.

The news is particularly relevant for British American Tobacco $BATS (-1,84%)which, along with its industry peers $MO (+1,86%)
$PM (+1,84%)
$IMB (-2,32%) may now be able to avoid the financial impact that a menthol ban would have had on sales and market share.

1 Commento

Dividendenopi👴@Dividendenopi

4Settimana

I'm going to have a 🚬 first.

•

Jo'

@Jo_Wolf

4Settimana·

MO shares portfolio liquidation

19.19% profit

Taking my gains for allocating in $VWRL (-0,91%) and keeping cash for potential future plays

24.01

Altria Group

Venduto a 51,66 USD

Jo'

@Jo_Wolf

1Mes·

📢 FDA’s Bold Nicotine Reduction Proposal: A Game Changer or a Risky Gamble?

The U.S. FDA has just proposed a groundbreaking rule to reduce nicotine levels in cigarettes and certain tobacco products to minimally addictive levels, potentially saving millions of lives. While the public health benefits are undeniable, the ripple effects on the economy and the tobacco industry cannot be ignored.

📊 Key Highlights:

By 2100, the rule could prevent 48M youth from starting to smoke and help 12.9M current smokers quit within a year of implementation.

Long-term benefits include an estimated $1.1T saved annually in healthcare and productivity over 40 years.

💡 Counterpoints and Economic Impact:

Richard Marianos, former assistant director of the ATF, warns the regulation could inadvertently create new demand for high-nicotine cigarettes, similar to how high tobacco taxes fuel counterfeit markets.

🔍 Smuggling and Revenue Losses:

The Tax Foundation reports that in 2022, 54.3% of cigarettes consumed in New York were smuggled, driven by the nation’s highest state cigarette tax of $5.35 per pack (+$1.50 in NYC).

Marianos predicts smugglers along U.S. borders, especially in states like California and Washington with international cargo ports, could benefit significantly.

📉 Projected Economic Fallout (Chmura Economics Report, Dec. 2024):

$30.6B annual economic impact.

Over 154K jobs at risk.

$8B decline in federal excise tax revenue.

$16B annual drop in state/local tax revenues.

💬 Investor Insights:

What’s your outlook on the FDA’s nicotine proposal and its implications for the tobacco industry and broader economy?

Share your thoughts in the comments, and don’t forget to like and share this post 📰!

$BTI (-2,03%)
$BATS (-1,84%)
$MO (+1,86%)
$PM (+1,84%)

1 Commento

Jo'@Jo_Wolf

1Mes

I reported already 4 days ago that this proposal was imminent, see the article at : https://getqu.in/eJoZ1H/

•

Jo'

@Jo_Wolf

1Mes·

🚭 Biden Administration Targets Cigarette Nicotine Levels

In a significant regulatory move, the Biden administration is expected to propose a rule limiting nicotine levels in cigarettes.

💡 Objective: Reduce nicotine by up to 95%, making cigarettes minimally addictive.

🔎 Impact: Could prevent millions from becoming addicted, with projections of 16M fewer smokers by 2060 and 33M by 2100 (FDA data).

❤️‍🩹 Health Benefits: Smoking kills 480K+ Americans annually. Limiting nicotine could save countless lives while targeting chronic diseases like cancer and cardiovascular conditions.

🚫 Exclusions: The rule wouldn’t apply to e-cigarettes or nicotine replacement therapies.

This proposal presents a major challenge for U.S. tobacco stocks, including Altria Group ($MO (+1,86%) ) and British American Tobacco ($BATS (-1,84%)
$BTI (-2,03%) ). Lower nicotine levels could significantly impact cigarette demand, pressuring revenues. Investors will closely watch whether these companies can adapt by expanding their portfolios into non-combustible alternatives like e-cigarettes or heated tobacco products. Market volatility is expected as regulatory uncertainty looms.

The plan has already met strong criticism from Republican lawmakers. Representative Ronny Jackson (Texas) contended that smoking, despite its health risks, is a “personal choice” Americans should have the freedom to make. Political opposition, coupled with legal challenges, could delay or derail the rule’s implementation.

If approved, the rule could reshape the tobacco industry and public health landscape. However, the uncertainty surrounding its finalization raises questions about its timeline and ultimate impact.

💬 Let's discuss

How do you think this proposed nicotine cap could reshape the tobacco industry and public health landscape if enacted ? Share your thoughts below! Don’t forget to like this post and share it with your network ! 👍🏻

2 Commenti

TaxesAreTheft@TaxesAreTheft

1Mes

Old news, Biden won’t do shit.

••

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Aktienmasseur

@Aktienmasseur

1Mes·

Tobacco value sought

I would like to add a tobacco stock to my dividend portfolio. Which one would you choose and on what basis?

$MO (+1,86%) Altria
$BATS (-1,84%) British American Tobacco
$PM (+1,84%) Philip Morris

I look forward to your feedback!

11 Commenti

1Mes

Clearly $PM or $BATS. Take a look at the blog posts on https://abilitato.de/. The companies are well explained and described there.

•

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Toshi

@Toshi-and-the-Mountain

2Mes·

How to Invest in the rapidly growing ADHD market. $COLL (-1,41%) , a value stock with promising growth!

Collegium Pharmaceutical is a specialty pharmaceutical company that engages in the development and commercialization of medicines for pain management.

The company is not missing a beat. They are growing revenue quarter after quarter and I believe they are worth a second look. Let me give you some quick insights!

$COLL (-1,41%) has become part of Joel Greenblatt Magic Formula List in August 2023. Since then it has never graduated from the List even after the stock gained over 75%. This suggest that this stock is heavily undervalued. *You can find the updated Magic Formula list at the bottom of this post.

Recently, after going through an acquisition that impacted negatively the financials with one time items, the stock dropped significantly opening up new opportunities to buy in.

The new acquisition is very promising and will likely drive future growth. $COLL (-1,41%) bought Ironshore that had an established presence in neurology (ADHD) with Jornay PM. The ADHD market is projected to reach $30.6 billion by 2032.

Collegium reported strong Q3 2024 results, with 17% YoY revenue growth and EBIT margins improving to 35.2%, showcasing operational efficiency.

Still, $COLL (-1,41%) faces risks, including high financial debt, integration challenges for Jornay PM, and potential revenue concentration in pain management products.

At the same time, the management is executing very well on important areas:

Improving the health of the company by paying out debt;
Promoting a share repurchase program

I believe Collegium has compelling valuation metrics and good growth projections that indicate good upside potential.

In conclusion I think Collegium Pharmaceutical's earnings potential is at least as good as it seems, and maybe even better!

Considering all the above, I don't see many reasons against taking a position on this stock right now and holding it for one year as ruled by Joel Greenblatt.

Magic Formula's list (09/12/2024)