14.10.2024
DAX with a new run-up to record highs? US reporting season could help + Tonies: A box conquers the world + 5 DATES that will be important this week
The reporting season in the USA and the ECB's expected interest rate cut on Thursday should provide fresh impetus for the German stock market in the new week. Billions in economic aid for China should also go down well with the stock market. The DAX could set new record highs. - The weekly outlook.
Small box, big success: the interactive audio platform from Tonies $TNIE (+0,28%) not only makes children's eyes light up. The investors also have every reason to be happy.
5 DATES that will be important this week
- 1. ZEW economic expectations rise in October
The economic expectations of investors surveyed by the Center for European Economic Research for Germany are likely to have risen again in October for the first time after three consecutive declines. Economists surveyed by Dow Jones Newswires forecast that the index has risen to 9.0 (September: 3.6) points. The situation assessment index is expected to rise to 84.3 (minus 84.5) points. The Sentix economic index surveyed among the same group of people has also risen.
>>> Tuesday, 15.10.2024; 11:00
- 2. investment banking gives US institutions a boost
According to JP Morgan $JPM (+2,19%) and Wells Fargo $WFC (+2,42%) the other major US banks present their figures for the third quarter. In particular Morgan Stanley $MS (+2,75%) and Goldman Sachs $GS (+2,89%) with their relatively large investment banks, are likely to benefit from the fact that activity on Wall Street has picked up again. The universal banks Citigroup $C (+1,62%) and Bank of America $BAC (+1,49%) will also feel this. However, they are also noticing the waning tailwind in the interest-bearing business.
>>> Bank of America, Morgan Stanley, Citigroup (Tuesday), Goldman Sachs (Wednesday)
- Wells Fargo reported an 11% drop in third-quarter profit to USD 5.1 billion, but beat analysts' expectations due to higher revenues at the investment bank. This led to a rise in the stock in pre-market trading, indicating a positive market reaction despite the earnings decline.
- JPMorgan Chase exceeded analysts' expectations in the third quarter with a profit of 12.9 billion US dollars, which led to a rise in the share price in pre-market trading. This strong increase in earnings compensated for higher loan loss provisions and could have a positive impact on the share price.
- 3. focus at Sartorius is on the outlook
Sartorius $SRT (-1,35%) is likely to have recorded a rather meagre business performance in the third quarter. Analysts' consensus expectations are for sales revenue to be roughly on a par with the previous year, but this is mainly due to a low basis for comparison and not yet a recovery in organic growth. The focus is on the forecast, which the DAX-listed laboratory equipment supplier lowered in July. Sartorius had referred to the high volatility and limited predictability of short-term business development and only held out the prospect of increasing demand momentum for the final quarter. The succession of Group CEO Joachim Kreuzburg, who is not seeking a further term of office after his contract expires in November 2025, is also unclear.
>>> Thursday, October 17, 2024; 07:00
- 4. the ECB takes an extra step downwards
The European Central Bank (ECB) will probably not be able to escape the pull of falling inflation rates and weaker economic indicators. Statements from ECB Governing Council members of all stripes and data suggest that the ECB will decide on Thursday to cut its key interest rate by 25 basis points to 3.25 percent - a month after trying to avoid exactly this impression. Normally, central banks try to avoid such abrupt swings. However, one must give the ECB credit for the fact that it would only be implementing its promise to adjust interest rates to the data situation.
>>> Thursday, 17.10.2024; 14:15
- 5 China's economic problems are worsening
Economic growth in China could also fall short of official targets in the third quarter of 2024, write the economists at Bank of America (BofA) in a research note. Gross domestic product (GDP) growth is likely to slow to 4.6 percent in the third quarter after 4.7 percent in the second quarter, the economists expect. Beijing has set itself a growth target of 5 percent for the year as a whole. The reluctance of Chinese politicians to take major economic measures, together with contradictory political goals, is contributing to the downturn. Many experts are concerned. Analysts at Gavekal warned at a briefing that deflation is on the way and there is little sign that Beijing's efforts to stabilize the property market and improve consumer and business sentiment are working. For the rest of the world, China's worsening problems are increasing the risk of a global economic slowdown and putting pressure on commodity prices, with a focus on China.
>>> Friday, October 18, 2024; 04:00
Monday: Stock market dates, economic data, quarterly figures
Stock market holiday Canada | Japan | US bond market (US equity markets are open, however)
Quarterly figures / company dates Europe
07:00 Fraport traffic figures for September
Untimed: Volkswagen Pre-Close-Call 3Q | Bawag quarterly figures
Economic data
- 02:00 SG: GDP 3rd quarter FORECAST: +2.0% yoy/+4.0% yoy previous: +0.4% yoy/+2.9% yoy
- 04:00 CN: Foreign trade September trade balance Forecast: +89.80 bn US dollars previous: +91.02 bn US dollars Exports Forecast: +6.0% yoy previous: +8.7% yoy
- Without time specification: AT: Opec oil market report October
