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tbh, all gaming industry should be a no touch for the next months, i dont want to overexagerate AI, but pirate gaming is really a growing issue
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@walth98 Could you elaborate on your thoughts here? If anything AI will make it near impossible to pirate games in the future. Who has better access to advanced technology? Multi billion dollar companies or non-profit hacker groups that upload pirated games for fun?
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@Soprano we can agree that any sector with high exposure to pirate product is a risk to price in, affecting directly the top line. what i want to stress about the gaming industry is that the clients are people with over average it skills, that are good enough to spend 1h looking online for reliable piratated version. and unfortunately the incentive for hackers to pirate good games increase more then proportionally to the game success. AI programming is not Terminator is just a basic task support to programmers, and the entire cybersecurity world is just chasing innovation from hackers. New attack, well Learned. Please, discount my tought for the fact that I love cybersecurity stocks.
Your stock had a clear over reaction to the new, and the little analyst coverage makes it less efficient in getting to the real price. so its true, there most likely some disallignment between price and real value. but i wonder what it takes to reallign those, what kind of news are you looking for? next earnings? most likely. Well why not, it makes sense, for a buy now and sell after good earnings. For the Long I still dont like the sector, for the short as a trade sell after good earnings makes sense.
We should study how good the new game is. How would you proceed?
BTW in terms of exposure at gaming industry, I like $SE. Good compromise of exposure to heavily admortised games, this takes away of the equation of the capex risk required by realising new games. But that's a mix of businesses, I agree it is not a great comparison with yours.
Your stock had a clear over reaction to the new, and the little analyst coverage makes it less efficient in getting to the real price. so its true, there most likely some disallignment between price and real value. but i wonder what it takes to reallign those, what kind of news are you looking for? next earnings? most likely. Well why not, it makes sense, for a buy now and sell after good earnings. For the Long I still dont like the sector, for the short as a trade sell after good earnings makes sense.
We should study how good the new game is. How would you proceed?
BTW in terms of exposure at gaming industry, I like $SE. Good compromise of exposure to heavily admortised games, this takes away of the equation of the capex risk required by realising new games. But that's a mix of businesses, I agree it is not a great comparison with yours.
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@walth98 You overestimate the "hacker industry" by far. Ever heard of anti-tamper? Since months there have been only a few individuals world wide that are able to bypass newest DRM (digital rights management software). Of course smaller games like Frostpunk 2 are pirated on the day of release. But bigger companies like Ubisoft can afford this technology and so their games aren't pirated even MONTHS after they release.
It's a matter of risk evaluation for companies. Do you believe the amount of loyal customers is greater than the cost of anti piracy software? Polish game developers believe in the quality of their product and the cost of thieves is smaller than the cost for protection. EA and Ubisoft don't have this kind of customer affection anymore. They fully protect all their games because they know people would not buy them otherwise.
AI will only improve the anti-tamper software (on the expense of the customer obviously because if you honestly bought software that is anti-piracy protected you suffer a lot of performance loss + higher energy consumption + less compatibility + no mod support)
PS. I have evaluated the quality of the game as explained by playing it myself + reading the reviews from press and other customers.
It's a matter of risk evaluation for companies. Do you believe the amount of loyal customers is greater than the cost of anti piracy software? Polish game developers believe in the quality of their product and the cost of thieves is smaller than the cost for protection. EA and Ubisoft don't have this kind of customer affection anymore. They fully protect all their games because they know people would not buy them otherwise.
AI will only improve the anti-tamper software (on the expense of the customer obviously because if you honestly bought software that is anti-piracy protected you suffer a lot of performance loss + higher energy consumption + less compatibility + no mod support)
PS. I have evaluated the quality of the game as explained by playing it myself + reading the reviews from press and other customers.
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