1Settimana
Dec 2013 to May 2015
Jan 2018 to Jan 2019
Nov 2021 to Dec 2022
These are the periods in which it went down (apart from small corrections). perhaps you can see the pattern here that it almost always went down for about a year and it usually started in winter.
The periods in between where it went up amount to about two years.
So should we expect it to go down for a year from December / January?
What is your opinion here?
Jan 2018 to Jan 2019
Nov 2021 to Dec 2022
These are the periods in which it went down (apart from small corrections). perhaps you can see the pattern here that it almost always went down for about a year and it usually started in winter.
The periods in between where it went up amount to about two years.
So should we expect it to go down for a year from December / January?
What is your opinion here?
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1Settimana
@Tenbagger2024 Thank you for your comment and the really good question.
I say yes because of my thesis/assumptions. Maybe it's only Feb/March. But it will go down again, because the yield drop will be over at some point and the capital will look for another asset class where it can generate returns. At some point, crypto will also be completely overbought again. And of course at some point it will be oversold in the very long term.
However, unlike before, we now have new variables or unknowns: significantly more retail and institutional capital through ETFs, we no longer have a zero interest rate policy, no corona lockdowns... which is why the bull market will have its own characteristics again.
I say yes because of my thesis/assumptions. Maybe it's only Feb/March. But it will go down again, because the yield drop will be over at some point and the capital will look for another asset class where it can generate returns. At some point, crypto will also be completely overbought again. And of course at some point it will be oversold in the very long term.
However, unlike before, we now have new variables or unknowns: significantly more retail and institutional capital through ETFs, we no longer have a zero interest rate policy, no corona lockdowns... which is why the bull market will have its own characteristics again.
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1Settimana
@frugalfreisein
I have seen that the period between the corrections is of course 3 years.
If there is a systematic approach, the correction should not take place until the end of next year.
I think this correction is also important so that the upward trend can continue.
I have seen that the period between the corrections is of course 3 years.
If there is a systematic approach, the correction should not take place until the end of next year.
I think this correction is also important so that the upward trend can continue.
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•1Settimana
@Tenbagger2024 I also see the corrections as important. And the more BTC becomes mainstream, the less violent they will be.
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