Patrick Schäfer · 2024-09-17T18:10:05.521814Z

First tranche wrapped up. Hope that the downward trend is broken.

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This is just the beginning of the end! Oil will come under the wheels first when the economy collapses! I'm surprised that the shares are still holding up so well.🤔
Attractive only at €20 per share!

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Patrick Schäfer@Hotte1909

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@GordonGekko83 Don't be so negative. Shell is doing quite well in terms of new products. It's only a small position.

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Leo@MCKrummel-Divi-Holding

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@GordonGekko83 what does not come under the wheels when it collapses?

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Dennis@GordonGekko83

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@MCKrummel-Divi-Holding There are certainly sectors that hold up well. Oil is definitely not!

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Horrax D@Horrax

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@GordonGekko83 Toilet paper!!! So yes, basic consumption. The established companies in particular are probably the most resistant. Even if I personally wouldn't count toilet paper among them. But that's the law of the masses... ;)

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Testo-Investor@Testo-Investor

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@GordonGekko83 So your theory is that the big bang is coming soon or already tonight?

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Dennis@GordonGekko83

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@Testo-Investor I expect things to get uncomfortable in the near future and don't see much more potential on the markets. I don't know whether it will actually go down this year or next year. Honestly, I have no idea - I don't have the tools!

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Testo-Investor@Testo-Investor

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@GordonGekko83 I like that! I like to hear that... Falling prices are nice :) I'm hoping for this week.

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Miraglia D.@Danilo84

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Depreciation trend has been broken since August 2023. But cool share, nice to collect dividends 😉

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Patrick Schäfer@Hotte1909

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@Danilo84 I meant the short-term downward trend that had been intact for about 5 weeks.
Dividends are exactly my target 😉

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Miraglia D.@Danilo84

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@Hotte1909 Oh well, I think so. Yes, sure, you can live well with the dividends.

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Soprano@Soprano

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But what is the serious investment case now? Well, oil and gas are difficult for Western companies. Renewable energies are also disappointing. They don't do nuclear power at all. What does the story look like for Shell?

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Patrick Schäfer@Hotte1909

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@Soprano just to name a few points.
Liquefied natural gas expansion
E infrastructure
Large customers Electricity
hydrogen
CO2 capture and storage.
For me personally, the investment period is around 5 years. I have analyzed €30 as a fair entry price for me. I expect a return of approx. 6-8% pa. 3% through dividends +3-5% share price growth pa...
Exit price year 1 would be around €45 then I would have exceeded my target return and all is well. I have not yet defined an exact exit for the other years. It depends on the dividend increase etc. Target price in 5 years would be about 38- 40€ then I would be at about 5.8- 7.95% pa

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Soprano@Soprano

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@Hotte1909 Liquid gas, hydrogen and CO² can also be played via Linde and Co., there are special gas specialists for a reason (I also find them very interesting).

In the foreseeable future, e-infrastructure will only cost money instead of earning it.

However, you have a realistic return expectation. I think 6-8% is pretty meagre and below the market average.

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Patrick Schäfer@Hotte1909

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@useref748d772fc84f3e get smart first. To make it easier, read the article on what Shell is currently building in the Rhineland.

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Seventrader@7Trader

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@useref748d772fc84f3e There are many big caps that were declared dead that have been resurrected. For example Microsoft, IBM, At&t .... And there are a few more. Do you think Shell will dissolve after the last drop of oil and not prepare for it?

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Patrick Schäfer@Hotte1909

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@useref748d772fc84f3e so then you know that they don't just rely on oil. Shell should also be aware that in 30 years there will probably be no more filling stations as we know them 😉

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