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Hennington Research
@HennRes
2Mes·

According to a survey of global fund managers by Bank of America ($BAC (-0,11%)) survey of global fund managers, investors see the US shadow banking sector as the most likely source of a potential global credit crisis. This was stated by 31% of the investors surveyed. The shadow banking sector includes financial institutions such as insurers and hedge funds that are not traditional banks. Since the 2008 financial crisis, this sector has grown strongly and now accounts for almost half of global financial assets.

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The reason for concern is that these shadow banks are less strictly regulated than traditional banks. This means they could take greater risks, making them more vulnerable to problems such as loan defaults or liquidity shortages. If a crisis were to break out in the shadow banking sector, this could jeopardize the entire financial system.

In addition to the shadow banking sector, the US commercial real estate sector (24% of investors) and US government debt (17% of investors) were also cited as potential triggers for a global credit crisis.

immagine del profilo
Hennington Research
@HennRes
2Mes·

A survey by Bank of America ($BAC (-0,11%)) of global fund managers shows that most investors expect the FED in September 2024 will start cutting interest rates. More than half (56%) of the investors surveyed expect the first interest rate cut on September 18, and 87% assume that the first rate cut will take place in the second half of the year will take place. According to Refinitiv, the money markets are already pricing in an interest rate cut by 25 basis points in September completely in September.

These expectations are supported by data showing a slowdown in inflation and a slowdown in economic activity, suggesting that the interest rate hikes to date will not be enough. interest rate hikes of the FED have been effective. With inflation under control and a rising unemployment rate it is expected that the FED will shift its focus from fighting inflation to preventing job losses and a possible recession.

The CME FedWatch
tool shows a 100% probability of a rate cut by a quarter of a quarter percentage point in Septemberwith a small chance of 6,7% for a reduction by half a half a percentage point. Leading Fed members have also signaled that a rate cut could be justified in the coming months.

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