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@TomTurboInvest nice contribution, thank you đđ¤ As an international logistics manager with focus on the lanes NCMP (simplified exAsia to EU) these topics are my daily bread. Since about August 2022 the sea freight rates are strongly declining and have leveled off again with the current rate to a pre-Covid level. However, one must take into account that due to the geopolitical situation, inflation and the resulting lack of purchasing power, the volume to be shipped has been declining for months or is at a very low level. In short: There is a lack of export volume, forwarders are again contacting customers and asking for volume/orders, shipping companies are canceling planned sailings and announcing blank sailings in order to fill the remaining ships. In parallel, new, large ships with more capacity are being deployed and older, smaller ships are going into the shipyard or being taken off the market. Basically, I can report a slight shift in volumes CN, VN. It remains exciting to see how India will develop. đ It is still gigantic sums of TEU that are transported, but for 2023 to the half-year 2024 I do not assume that the shipping company after the record year 2021/2022 to their sales will continue and here it will be exciting, investors will react to this in the long term. No investment advice đđ
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@iboT_K Do you hear a strong overvaluation between the lines? In other words, the current prices correspond to the decline in business? A hot topic these shipping companies that I would like to have despite the dividend reluctantly in the portfoliođ
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@iboT_K if you're still a logistics manager in this area after Corona, you've already got top resilience đ
đ The "normal" annual peak seasons were nothing compared to that... I work in purchasing, where logistics has taken on a completely different significance, I mean it's always been important, but it's never been such a bottleneck𼜠It's great for us that things have eased up again đ ...
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@GoDividend Sales expectations have been and will be further adjusted and reduced, yes. I do not see record sales in the medium term. * With a fleet of 250 container ships and a transport capacity of 1.8 million TEU, Hapag-Lloyd is the fifth largest shipping company in the world - behind Cosco, CMA CGM, Maersk and the prime MSC. Like Hapag-Lloyd, the considerably larger Danish shipping company Maersk had also recently published slumps in its business figures at the beginning of the year. Accordingly, sales fell by 26 percent in the first quarter to 14.2 billion dollars (around 12.8 billion euros). Earnings before interest and taxes (Ebit) shrank by more than two thirds to 2.3 billion dollars.* Source Manager Magazin (https://www.manager-magazin.de/unternehmen/hapag-lloyd-reederei-mit-massivem-gewinn-und-umsatzeinbruch-nach-rekordjahr-a-4a1c3afb-a541-402e-aecd-23f880e97f7f#)
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@TomTurboInvest yes đ and even with promotion đ¤ Peak seasons are really nothing compared to that. The annual rate increases around Christmas, Golden Week and chinese year are a drop in the bucket in comparison. đ§ I'm with you on that đ anyone who has worked in these areas through Covid and had to deal with supply chain difficulties, equipment issues, 5 digit ocean freight rates and all the challenges, yes today's day to day business is almost boring đđ
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@iboT_K NCMP = NorthChinaMainPort. However, the abbreviation does not describe the trade, otherwise I'm with you đ
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@InvestmentQuelle It is not about the trade, but about the lanes. However, not only the main ports from CN run under the NCMP, but also, for example, the MP from Vietnam ect.
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@iboT_K no that is not correct. NCMP = NorthChinaMainPorts. This includes Shanghai and Ningbo in particular, but certainly not the ports from Vietnam.
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@InvestmentQuelle then tell me with pleasure under which the MP from Vietnam are to be classified in the SCFI (NCMP, MED, SAM, PEGU ect.) đ How do you come on it and which points of contact do you have with me the SC?
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@iboT_K The SCFI is a rate index and has less to do with the regional abbreviation NCMP. If by SC, you mean the supply chain and you go out on a limb with your market assessment as an international logistics manager, then the data should also be correct. I strongly assume that you work as a logistics manager for a company in the manufacturing or trade sector and that your main focus is the procurement of products from Asia. Or do you work for an ocean freight forwarder or shipping company? Then I would be even more surprised about the untruths
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@InvestmentQuelle your statements and theses are super interesting, also your interpretation of "going out on a limb". i would be happy if you tell us what is your assumption under which abbreviation the vietnamese mainports are shown in the SCFI? also interesting to understand would be where you got the knowledge from?
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