7Mes
I think the witcher 4 will sell 30 million copies on release at 80€ each = 2.4 billion sales. Previous margins were about 60% with the own engine, since this time the unreal engine is used, I think the margin will be lower, if we assume 40%, 960 million profit remains from the release alone. Current market cap of cd projekt: 2.3 billion. everything is still a dream of the future, in the long term the investment will pay off I think. I am currently holding 200 shares at €25.80.
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7Mes
@FresherAlman Despite my bullish sentiment, this is too ambitious in my opinion. I forecast release figures similar to Cyberpunk. Conservative. What's exciting is the sheer number of games that will be released in the next decade. 3x Witcher within about 6 years, 1x Cyberpunk 2 and 1x a new IP alongside other, smaller projects like Sirius or the Witcher 3 remake. In this respect, I don't think it's a bad thing if it doesn't reach 30 million sales at release. About half that would be great.
Regarding the margins... that's not true. There has never been a 60% margin in recent years. The highest margin was in 2020 with almost 54%. The average seems to be a little over 30%, which probably also has to do with the necessary bug-fixing of Cyberpunk. I also think that the margin will decrease. Conservatively, assuming that not everything goes smoothly with the new games either, maybe 23%.
Even with this, admittedly very cautious, outlook, I still think it is completely undervalued. What makes the share so attractive are the many releases from 2026 onwards.
Regarding the margins... that's not true. There has never been a 60% margin in recent years. The highest margin was in 2020 with almost 54%. The average seems to be a little over 30%, which probably also has to do with the necessary bug-fixing of Cyberpunk. I also think that the margin will decrease. Conservatively, assuming that not everything goes smoothly with the new games either, maybe 23%.
Even with this, admittedly very cautious, outlook, I still think it is completely undervalued. What makes the share so attractive are the many releases from 2026 onwards.
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