Find the sector uninteresting. Why take this risk? There are so many companies that have better business models.
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@MiIliardenmehling In what way do you think there are better business models? Because of the capital intensity or why?
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@JRow exactly, and the market is fully developed. Where is the growth supposed to come from?
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@MiIliardenmehling I assume that the demand will decrease due to the change in the energy mix. Therefore, I completely agree with you that the crude oil market is tapped or will show low growth rates in terms of production (1 - 2% p.a. for the next 5 - 10 years). Nevertheless, I believe that there will be an artificial shortage of raw materials, i.e. OPEC+ will continue to reduce their production volumes in order to ensure their prosperity. Consequently, my thesis is that revenue growth will come from pure price increases and thus the market will then grow much stronger. I think it is clear that gas and oil producers are not tenbaggers, but I can imagine an above-average return to the market in the future.
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@JRow The OPEC countries cannot increase prices too much, because then other oil fields will become profitable again. Fracking in the USA, for example. I think it is very difficult to forecast the oil price in the long term.
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