As every Sunday, the most important news from the past week, as well as the most important dates for the coming week.
Also as a video:
https://youtube.com/shorts/98gSyf4ik54?si=lSB_tDY1ht0EYRQS
Monday:
Food prices are rising in China 🇨🇳 and thus increasing inflation. In the first few years after coronavirus, China even had problems with deflation. Even now, inflation is only 0.6%.
Tuesday:
Despite all the crises, more dividends will still be paid out in 2024. 92% of all companies worldwide are likely to increase their dividends. Overall, dividends paid out are likely to rise by 5% to 1.74 trillion US dollars worldwide. The 20 largest dividend payers worldwide in the second quarter include many German 🇩🇪Unternehmen $MBG (+0,18%) Mercedes (USD 6.1 billion),$ALV (+0,65%) Allianz (USD 5.8 billion), Deutsche Telekom (USD $DTE (+0,12%) Deutsche Telekom (USD 4.1 billion) and $BMW (+0,4%) BMW (USD 3.9 billion). The largest payout was made by $HSBA (+0,24%) HSBC (USD 11.7 billion). This is followed by the Swiss 🇨🇭Konzern $NESN (+0,15%) Nestlé (USD 8.7 billion).
The two tech companies $AAPL (+0,16%) Apple and $GOOGL (+1%) Alphabet must pay billions to the EU. Apple has now suffered a final defeat before the ECJ due to alleged state aid by Ireland. Apple now has to pay 13 billion euros in back taxes plus interest.
Alphabet also lost in court and has to pay a fine of 2.4 billion euros. The reason is that Alphabet probably favored its own price comparison service in search engine advertising.
$BMW (+0,4%) BMW cuts its targets and recalls 1.5 million cars. The main reason is probably faulty parts from suppliers. BMW is therefore focusing more on monitoring and training suppliers. Instead of 8 - 10 % profit margin, the target is now 6 - 7 %.
$VOW (-0,09%) VW unilaterally cancels the job guarantee. The termination letters for six collective agreements were handed over to IG-Metall Lower Saxony and Saxony-Anhalt today. Dismissals for operational reasons are possible from July 1, 2025. Previously, job guarantees were in place until 2029, with VW justifying the end with excessively high costs in Germany, which are no longer competitive.
Wednesday:
Heated debate between Trump and Harris. Trump is directly convicted several times by the moderators with false statements. Immediately after the debate, Taylor Swift also speaks out in favor of Harris.
Major insider purchase at $HFG (+0,02%) Hellofresh, CEO Dominik Richter buys shares for more than 10 million euros.
https://www.boerse.de/nachrichten/EQS-DD-HelloFresh-SE-DSR-Ventures-GmbH-Kauf/36459409
There are many indications of an attempted takeover of $CBK (-0,1%) Commerzbank by $UCG (+0,2%) Unicredit buys directly from the German state for more than 700 million euros.
Inflation in the USA falls to 2.5% shortly before the Fed meeting and is thus approaching the 2.0% target. Experts had only expected a fall to 2.6%. Core inflation (excluding food and energy) remained at 3.2%. This should make it clear that the Fed is lowering interest rates. However, the amount of the cut is still unclear.
Thursday:
The ECB cuts the key interest rate by 25 basis points, which is in line with expectations. As a result, there has hardly been any impact on the stock market so far.
Producer prices in the US have risen slightly more than expected. However, the previous month's data was revised downwards slightly. Compared to the same month last year, producer prices rose by 1.7%. Producer prices are a leading indicator for the inflation rate in around 3 months' time.
https://www.ariva.de/news/usa-anstieg-der-erzeugerpreise-schwcht-sich-ab-11369313
Friday:
More and more market participants are expecting a large rate cut of 50 basis points at the Fed decision next week. In the meantime, 47% of interest rate traders believe a rate cut of half a percentage point is likely. If this is indeed the case, there is further upside potential for the markets. On the other hand, if this does not happen, there could be a major sell-off. This decision is therefore likely to move the markets in any case.
Most important dates in the coming week:
Tuesday: 11:00 ZEW Economic Sentiment (DE)
Wednesday: 20:00 Fed interest rate decision (USA)
Thursday: 13:00 BoE interest rate decision (UK)