3Mes·

What the current week on the stock market has shown me


The current stock market week is not quite over yet, but we can already make some observations and draw some conclusions:


1) Prices can also fall!

Yes, prices do not only move in one direction; they can also fall. We have already seen in recent months that individual companies have been selectively punished after disappointing quarterly figures; see $NKE (+0,58%), $SBUX (+2,49%) or $PATH (-0,49%). So far, the broad market has nevertheless continued to rise. This week shows that even the broad indices $IWDA (+0,72%) or $VWRL (+0,46%) can fall by several percent. The fact that top-heavy indices such as the NASDAQ 100 $QQQ can suffer daily losses of more than 3% is something that many people seem to be realizing only now. Not every 2% correction is a dip and has to be bought. We can see how quickly things can go down further.


2) Getquin symbolizes the whole drama

In recent weeks, there have been an increasing number of articles in which the author has expressed a supposed fearlessness about investing at the all-time high or overweighting individual stocks that are performing strongly. Personally, I find it unsurprising to read articles on the subject of $NVDA (-0,03%) , $SMCI or most recently $DRO (-0,77%) noticed. The motto "All-in Nvidia" or "Buy the Dip" was celebrated and now you can already see the first posts of the kind "Help I bought Nvidia at the ATH and don't know if I should sell". Above all, this shows that far too few people give sufficient thought to what will happen if a share falls by 10, 20 or even 30%. Far too few people think for themselves, develop a watertight investment thesis or think about the current meaningfulness of the valuation.


To be clear again: I have nothing against the companies mentioned, they are just an obvious example. Many people blindly chase after the current hot stocks and then justify it with empty phrases or talk about momentum. The fact that momentum can also go in the other direction is often forgotten.


3) Hype is and remains hype

In particular, sectors that have only known one direction in recent times are now particularly affected. Be it the chip sector or technology stocks in general. After every valuation was justified by the enormous growth forecast for 2027, we now seem to be facing at least the beginning of disillusionment. For the first time, people seem to be questioning what the supposed AI champions actually want to earn their money with in order to cover the enormous investment costs. Statements with this tenor from the earnings call of $GOOGL (-0,6%) now also seem to be fueling doubts among investors.


Investing on the stock market is and remains psychology: shares that are currently doing well must continue to do well (recency bias) and what is being talked about the most is then directly the best investment. Prices are mainly made by people and people often follow the masses. It is and always will be important to think about your own investments independently of the general opinion and to act anti-cyclically. But that is easier said than done.


Stay tuned,

Yours Michael Scott

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26 Commenti

immagine del profilo
Simply enjoy the fact that you get more shares in the savings plans. For anyone who is not currently day trading, this is a good thing. Red figures in the portfolio are not nice, but they are no more than a snapshot
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immagine del profilo
Very well summarized.
That's why I'm now only invested in the All World. I can't deal with heavy losses on individual stocks in a relaxed manner, but I can with the All World.
I also think that for many people here a broad ETF would be the better option (certainly not for everyone).
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immagine del profilo
Many have simply been added.

My first "crash" was corona. It was perfectly okay to sit it out (but I still had my doubts at times). At that time, however, I had a portfolio of just under 2000-3000 euros and was also down almost 35 percent at times.

I don't know myself how I would feel if I were now 35 percent in the red with a portfolio of just under EUR 50,000 of my own invested capital. I think humility helps most people.
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immagine del profilo
Anyone who talks about dips at 2%... is just difficult. What do I want with 2%? 2% doesn't matter at all if I'm looking for a long-term return.
I find companies difficult whose share prices have risen sharply for a longer period of time and now sometimes have the largest market capitalization. It would stand to reason that a company with the largest market capitalization in the world would not become the next tenbagger. Before that, market saturation, regulatory measures, etc. occur.
Pure gut feeling at this point, but I think it sounds logical. I don't bother with studies, as such shares are not currently among my investments.

I still buy ETFs immediately. 2% is nothing when you consider how long the uptrend has been running since the first ATH of this uptrend. Large corrections of 40-50% due to crises would worry me more. But I can't foresee them.
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immagine del profilo
With the part about "what everyone is talking about is not automatically the best investment", you speak from my soul 🤜🏼🤛🏻
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immagine del profilo
I actually sold most of my shares at $NVDA, but not because of the price, but because I had a notary appointment :-D
Good luck to everyone!
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immagine del profilo
I'm also sitting this out because I'm betting on the long term, the ETFs like the MSCI World or the Vanguard FTSE All world dist are already good ETFs and the base sheet says hold for about 5 years anyway and I'm going through with it now, after every low there is a high again and I've now learned that not everything goes in one direction on the equity ETF market 👍👍
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immagine del profilo
Most of the people posting about being scared or " omg it crashes " ( when it's only down 4/5% ) are either young, or new to the Investment.
Not even speaking of the crypto guys getting ridiculous with their portfolio full of different useless coins that goes to 0 ( I saw that yesterday on someone's profile, that was really fun, 30$ going to 0 in 5 minutes ).
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immagine del profilo
👏👏👏
1
Top contribution. I am pleased that the savings plans do not buy at the all-time high on the first of the month :-)

I would be happy about a 20-30% correction ^^
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