1Sem.·

Possible tenbagger

I just had a conversation with @Multibagger in another post and promised to post a few stocks that I once saved somewhere as potential tenbaggers!

Unfortunately only 3 of the 10 I promised have turned out, as the rest like Kraken and Ondas are already well known here!

$SMR
$RR
$GRAB (-0,02 %)

I'm sorry that I can't offer any well-founded analyses or assessments now, because that's not my area!

But this post is more for the "usual suspects", maybe you can do something with it 😉

@Multibagger
@Klein-Anleger
@Tenbagger2024 These are just the 3 I can think of off the top of my head, but the post is of course for everyone!

Best regards 🚀

14 Commentaires

Raketentoni@Raketentoni

1Sem.

Here's the cold shower for the "tenbagger" dream at NuScale Power (SMR). Since he's betting on growth, we'll ignore dividends completely and just look at substance vs. valuation.
You can throw the following text at him (nicely wrapped, of course):
"Moin,
Before we start dreaming of 'Tenbagger' here, we need to take a sober look at the figures. SMR is an extremely hot story (Small Modular Reactors), but financially it's still a black hole. Here is a reality check on why the 'Tenbagger' is still a long way off:
1. valuation from the fantasy world (price-to-sales)
NuScale is valued on the stock exchange as if it already had hundreds of reactors on the grid.
The reality: The turnover is minimal and often does not consist of electricity sales or reactor deliveries, but of state subsidies or advance payments.
The problem: We are talking about an absurd price-to-sales ratio (P/S ratio). You are paying an extremely high price for every dollar of revenue that is not even profitable. To justify the current price level fundamentally, they would have to deliver now - but they are not.
2. the 'cash burn' machine
Look at the free cash flow. It's deep red.
Nuclear power development is incredibly expensive. NuScale burns millions of dollars every quarter on research, certification and personnel.
Danger of dilution: Where does the money come from to keep the lights on? Not from profits (they don't exist), but by issuing new shares. This means that your share of the cake (the share) is getting smaller and smaller because new pieces are constantly being baked to ensure survival. This is poison for the share price.
3. the project disaster (Utah warning)
Reminder of the 'Carbon Free Power Project' in Utah: This was supposed to be the flagship project. It was canceled. Why? Because the costs exploded (from 58 to 89 per MWh).
If even the flagship project fails because of the costs, who can guarantee that the next projects will be profitable? A 'tenbagger' needs scaling. But nuclear power scales extremely slowly and expensively.
4. the time factor (opportunity costs)
Building a nuclear power plant takes years, often decades. Even SMRs take years for licensing (NRC) and construction.
Years can pass before the first real profitable revenues are generated. In the meantime, the running costs eat up the capital.
Conclusion:
SMR is not an investment, but a pure bet on politics and the future of energy in 10 years' time. The current figures (turnover vs. loss) do not justify the hype. Anyone who invests here must expect the capital to be eaten up by capital increases (dilution) before the first reactor even earns money. That's too much 'hope' and too few 'figures' for a solid portfolio."

@Multibagger @Tenbagger2024

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Basti92@BavarianLion

1Sem.

@Raketentoni For many candidates, it's just a bet! Rocket Lab, Ondas or Kraken Robotics are no different! Moreover, we are not talking about a "solid" portfolio here, with stocks like Alphabet or Allianz! The people I have highlighted are specifically looking for these "gambles"!
All of today's tenbaggers had negative free cash flows in the early days, it was no different with Palantir and co!

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Raketentoni@Raketentoni

1Sem.

@BavarianLion all good, the people you marked already know why I'm posting this here 😬 I had Palantir from €7 when nobody believed in it. I know what you mean, but Mr. @Tenbagger2024 just asks Mr. PROMT for his opinion 🙃 so everyone has their own strategy

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Basti92@BavarianLion

1Sem.

@Raketentoni Everything fits 😀 Personally, I'm not at all into the topic of tenbaggers! I'll probably never have one in my portfolio either! Just as a question: You say you've been in Palantir since €7! What was different from other candidates that are now at €7? Personally, I wouldn't know what to look out for to know if it could possibly become a Tenbagger 😉

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Raketentoni@Raketentoni

1Sem.

@BavarianLion I can tell you, at the time it was still a gut feeling, but somehow the idea really stuck with me :)

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Basti92@BavarianLion

1Sem.

@Raketentoni So there wasn't the decisive clue for you, or any figures that said: This is going to be something!

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Brian@Aktienhauptmeister

1Sem.

$GRAB I also have one in my depot, but you need a lot of patience for a tenbagger. But the potential is definitely there 🚀

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jkb92@jkb92

1Sem.

@Aktienhauptmeister probably a good place to start right now, what do you think?

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DerDanner@Therapeut

1Sem.

@Aktienhauptmeister I used it several times a day in Vietnam and Singapore, there is nothing better there

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Brian@Aktienhauptmeister

1Sem.

@Therapeut Of course, there are local alternatives, but none of them have as strong a presence as $GRAB. I can only speak for Vietnam, as I have not been to Singapore, but in Vietnam there are literally grab drivers on every street corner. The prices are affordable. Whether rich or poor, anyone can book and use $GRAB. I am absolutely bullish on $GRAB. A few years ago, even $UBER had to give up its place in the Southeast Asian region because they lost out to $GRAB.

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DerDanner@Therapeut

1Sem.

@Aktienhauptmeister also find the app design better than that of Uber

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Brian@Aktienhauptmeister

1Sem.

@Therapeut I can only agree with you! App design is also an interesting feature compared to other providers.

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Dan@fizzelfritz

1Sem.

$GRAB is actually represented everywhere in SEA. I think normal cabs are better in Singapore if you need a car. Otherwise Grab and don't forget your delivery service.
Outside Singapore, Grab is everywhere and easy.

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Chris@Multibagger

1Sem.

OK, thanks. I already have $RR in my portfolio. I had $GRAB, but it fell victim to the yield check. I'll take a look at the third one.

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