1Sem.·

Eli Lilly sinks after double downgrade by HSBC. "We prefer Novo to Lilly at the current share price," adds HSBC.

$LLY (-2,36 %)
$NOVO B (+0,8 %) Eli Lilly shares fall 1.5% after HSBC downgrades the pharmaceutical company's shares twice from "buy" to "reduce".

Rival Novo Nordisk launches weight-loss drug Wegovy in Thailand, ahead of Lilly's Zepbound. Source: https://de.tradingview.com/news/reuters.com,2025:newsml_L8N3R61LI:0/

Stay tuned, next week there will be new figures from Novo. From the low on April 17 Novo has already recovered +10% away. Let's see if and how often the support around €51 will be tested🙄

update April 30: Novo was able to increase to +15% from the low by the end of the month. Positive news about cooperations allowed the share to "breathe a sigh of relief". Let's see if we still see the 62€ before the earnings🙄

TomTurboInvest

@TomTurboInvest

3Sem.·

Novo Nordisk - a technical review📉

$NOVO B (+0,8 %) The chart shows the period from the strong price performance in March/April 2021. From this point onwards, the price was supported by strong momentum and closely followed the red line, which represents the second standard deviation of the VWAP (Volume Weighted Average Price). This second standard deviation ran quite parallel above the SMA50 until the trend reversed in July 2024.

The significant volume peaks were in the price ranges around € 51, € 70 and € 83. Numerous positions were built up between April and November 2022, particularly in the €51 range. The price is currently at the lower edge of the first standard deviation of the VWAPwhich lies exactly on one of these volume peaks. From a technical perspective, this could represent a strong support zone. The next few weeks, up to the earnings on 7 May, will show whether institutional investors defend their trades from this area.

A positive scenario would be a bounce up to the next volume peak around € 70 or even beyond to above the VWAP (blue line). A negative scenario on the other hand, could mean a fall in the share price to around € 40.

After the share price reached the lower edge of the first standard deviation of the VWAP yesterday, I increased my Novo position by a further 10%. Despite the current price losses, which are likely to affect many investors, the fundamental figures make me optimistic about the future.

Estimates for sales and EPS for the next few years are still rising
P/E ratio, KUV and KBV are at the same levels as in 2018
Gross margin is >80%, EBITDA margin >50%,
Cash flow from operating activities continues to rise.

Some have already pulled the ripcord and exited $NOVO B (+0,8 %) exited. My position is already quite large for my individual share positions with a total of 220 shares, so I may well adjust the position size again slightly in the event of a bounce. Let's see what happens after the earnings on May 7?

How do you see Novo? Have you already pulled the ripcord, or do you have strong nerves and are taking advantage of the current price weakness to expand a market leader in the diabetes sector?

@Sebi I would also like to see a picture including RSI and MACD - thanks for pointing this out - I'm sure many people will find it interesting!

12 Commentaires

Lukas98@Lukas98

1Sem.

Sebi gets shaky again at HSBC's assessment.

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Sebi@Seebi

1Sem.

@Lukas98 😀😀 yes yes yes. I'm just saying 7 May, that's when it gets brutal

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Lukas98@Lukas98

1Sem.

@Seebi no matter if it goes up or down..I will have to think of you 😂

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TomTurboInvest@TomTurboInvest

1Sem.

@Seebi I hope so for your sake, otherwise your world view could collapse 😅
I would buy again strongly, really strongly - if there is a strong dip I will double my position 😁
I hope you can hold out then...

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Sebi@Seebi

1Sem.

@TomTurboInvest 😀 I am confident that it will be just like the last quarterly figures. Briefly up 4 percent and then permanently down. And you will continue to hope and believe and curse the day you bought more😀
I hope you can withstand the loss

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TomTurboInvest@TomTurboInvest

1Sem.

@Seebi I am also confident, I was at Meta when everyone was just beating on it, I was at Zalando, at Shopapotjeke, etc...😅
Time will tell, May 7th is not relevant🤷🏽‍♂️
I'll get through the interim book loss, it's only a small part of my risk capital.

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Epi@Epi

1Sem.

Tell me, shouldn't the volume peaks from 2022 be offset against inflation? Or are these simply psychologically important lines for people who calculate without inflation?

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TomTurboInvest@TomTurboInvest

1Sem.

@Epi regardless of time and inflation, these are the price ranges on the y-axis where there was a lot of trading. Volumes don't lie and have a memory 😅
That's the nice thing for traders😁
At least it looks as if the main volumes of institutional investors keep accumulating at the same level.

The question of inflation is a legitimate one, but I can't answer it from a psychological perspective. But anyone can ask themselves that question.

If you bought a share in 2022 at a price of €100, for example, at what point is it now psychologically at a loss for you? At less than €100 or less than €110 (including inflation)?

Or to put it another way, to track your performance, do you adjust your equity annually in line with inflation?

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Epi@Epi

1Sem.

@TomTurboInvest The fact that the volume spikes say something can be explained well by behavioral finance, in particular by loss aversion: losses hurt more than profits. This is actually a psychological defect because it encourages irrational behavior. Inflation is probably due to the anchor effect, i.e. the increased price sensitivity in the vicinity of the purchase price.

It's actually totally stupid, but if it works?🤷

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TomTurboInvest@TomTurboInvest

1Sem.

@Epi If the general data is correct, then over 95% of volumes come from institutional investors, but even there are people / fund managers behind them who do not want to let their clients' trades run into losses. And these investors have the volume to move prices.
Be that as it may, technically it works, so I continue to orient myself to the volume and volume-weighted average prices.
Maybe I'll write a post about my swing trading, a hobby with little time investment but regular income, and I've been doing it for years 🤷🏽‍♂️

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Epi@Epi

1Sem.

@TomTurboInvest Yes, I would be interested in that too. Especially to optimize my trading around the turn of the month. I think it would be cool! 👌

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bull_investor_vkmhk@bull_investor_vkmhk

1Sem.

I hope they learn from the US market mistakes and open up other economic areas. Even if the fat cats are there, of course... 🤗

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