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Jonas
@Leipziger_Jung
1Année·

Cadeler

Far too cheap in my opinion

07.05
CAD
Cadeler
Acheté x2298 à 4,362 €
10 023,88 €
5
40 Commentaires
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Tenbagger2024@Tenbagger2024
1Année
Not so favorable when looking at the P/E ratio.
Really cheap when looking at the P/E ratio. A P/E ratio of less than 10, with triple-digit earnings growth, would be rewarded with a decent performance in the tech sector.
I'm surprised how little Cadeler is being played by the stock market
The company is now growing with seven wind turbine installation vessels.
I hope for your sake that the stock market will soon recognize the potential
But I think it will take patience
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Jonas@Leipziger_Jung
1Année
@Tenbagger2024 Yes, I think so too. I have patience haha
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N@Khlmysee
10Mo
I have finally found the entry point. 🫶🏻
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N@Khlmysee
10Mo
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Jonas@Leipziger_Jung
10Mo
@Khlmysee Things are moving forward. 3 new ships are coming this year. One next year. One more in 2027. Shortage of installation ships from 2027. Forward Kgv of 8. 100 percent growth.
Perfect recipe for a juicy return in the next 3 to 4 years.
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Jonas@Leipziger_Jung
1Année
By the way @Kundenservice the key figures are wrong
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N@Khlmysee
11Mo
If Cadeler were to pay out dividends in the future (which does not seem unrealistic given the growth expectations), reclaiming the pro rata withholding tax would of course be annoying.
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Jonas@Leipziger_Jung
11Mo
@Khlmysee Yes, but I'm not a dividend investor. I think if they paid a dividend, that would be the sign for me to get out.
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N@Khlmysee
11Mo
@Leipziger_Jung Yes, that's understandable. I'm thinking about getting in because of the dividends and growth prospects, but I have little or no desire for paperwork. 😅
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Jonas@Leipziger_Jung
11Mo
@Khlmysee If they announce a dividend, you can consider going out again. You would know in advance. It could be years before then. The growth rates are just super strong, especially at the current valuation. According to the efficient market theory, such "market inefficiency" shouldn't even exist 😂
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N@Khlmysee
11Mo
@Leipziger_Jung do some research on $TMC and the current decrees under Trump. It's about the exploitation of rare earths in the sea - manganese nodules that are to be "harvested" from the seabed. I think that might "strike a chord" with you.
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Jonas@Leipziger_Jung
11Mo
@Khlmysee No, unfortunately not :D. Commodity exploration and mining companies are always too tricky for me.
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N@Khlmysee
11Mo
@Leipziger_Jung ok 😅 I think the company is a bit different from conventional exploration companies, but I understand your position. 😊

Do you have anything else exciting?
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Jonas@Leipziger_Jung
11Mo
@Khlmysee Oh, heaps of them. Besides Cadeler, I also find High Tide exciting as one of the few profitable cannabis companies in Canada. On the one hand, they are super-cheaply valued, have years of growth and, above all, improving margins ahead of them in Canada and are now planning to enter the fast-growing European cannabis markets. First and foremost, they want to expand into Germany, where I expect an announcement from management in the next few weeks. For me a 10x candidate in the next 5 years.

Then next up is Kaspi. High earnings yield and that combined with good return on capital. Expansion into the fast-growing Turkish market because they have slowly eaten up Kazakhstan and built up a quasi-monopoly. They also pay a decent dividend and are growing nicely (only this year they have cut the dividend because they need money for the Turkish expansion). I think that from this level a 5x in the next 5 years is possible and that with a nice dividend as I said.

And then as a play on the next few decades, I find Crispr Therapeutics extremely interesting. Simply because, in my opinion, this is the future of medicine and our species. What's more, Crispr Therapeutics is ahead of its competitors because it already has the first approved treatment for sickle cell anemia (one treatment costs 2.2 million US dollars). There are many exciting candidates in the pipeline that will come in the next few years. In addition, they hold 2 billion US dollars in cash and the company is valued at just over 3 billion, with sales now picking up and increasing profitability due to their casgevy against sickle cell anemia.
However, the first quarters have been disappointing in terms of demand so far, so I want to see how things develop. I'm also bothered by the "once and done" principle from an investor's point of view. I mean, for the patients it's a blessing --> one treatment and you're cured, but from an investor's point of view, they reduce their own TAM with every patient they treat and demonetize themselves bit by bit :D
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CaYaRo@CaYaRo
9Mo
@Leipziger_Jung
Congratz to the picks $KSPI and $CRSP; have developed well
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Jonas@Leipziger_Jung
9Mo
@CaYaRo Unfortunately I couldn't invest in either of them :D. Money was missing, but thanks
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N@Khlmysee
10Mo
Exclusive content for you:

Polish offshore wind industry plans own specialized vessels

Polish companies such as CRIST, WIKE and Baltic Industrial Group have signed a letter of intent to jointly develop and build specialized vessels for the construction and maintenance of offshore wind farms. The aim is to increase value creation in the country and become less dependent on foreign service providers such as Cadeler. To date, the necessary ships have mainly been chartered from Denmark.
The companies are planning to build at least two to four of their own Wind Turbine Installation Vessels (WTIV) over the next few years. These vessels are not expected to be ready for use until 2028/29 at the earliest, as the development and construction of such highly specialized equipment takes several years.
In the long term, this initiative represents serious competition for international providers such as Cadeler in the Polish market. In the short term, however, Cadeler will remain a key player, as the Polish vessels will not be available for several years. The development strengthens the Polish offshore wind industry, creates jobs and promotes local expertise.

Source: https://www.linkedin.com/posts/wnppl_pge-baltica-stocznia-crist-wike-i-grupa-activity-7344613023682048000-kLdO?utm_source=share&utm_medium=member_ios&rcm=ACoAAB-61EYB1egLwlOLYVk0od8JqitoAcqX_C0
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Jonas@Leipziger_Jung
10Mo
@Khlmysee Thanks for the article. I believe that the market is big enough for several players. Cadeler is forecasting that there will be a shortage of installation vessels from 2027 onwards, which will get bigger every year, so I don't think the threat is huge. Nevertheless, for me Cadeler is only a play for 4 to 5 years until the share has reached a good valuation level, because I simply no longer see this business model scaling from 2028/29 onwards
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N@Khlmysee
10Mo
@Leipziger_Jung All good, my investment case and investment horizon is now the same as yours. I think 50% should be easy. 😊
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Jonas@Leipziger_Jung
10Mo
@Khlmysee But if they reach 1.5bn sales in 2027 with a 60% Ebitda margin as they do now in some cases, that would be 850m Ebitda. If we assume a 15x multiple, we would get to 12 to 13 billion euros market cap.
That would be 8x from here. That is my case
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N@Khlmysee
10Mo
@Leipziger_Jung would be fine with me too! 🤑😅 I'm surprised that the stock hasn't taken off yet... But it was just what I needed to get started. 😬
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Jonas@Leipziger_Jung
10Mo
Maybe because it's a Danish company. They fly under the radar. But I can't imagine that the company will double its EBITDA this year and again next year and the share won't move a meter. So at some point in the next few quarters it will take off (if the estimates are met)
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N@Khlmysee
10Mo
@Leipziger_Jung I don't really see why that shouldn't happen. The estimates are usually based on statements about the backlog, which is enormous in this area for both Cadeler and other market participants.
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Jonas@Leipziger_Jung
10Mo
@Khlmysee I think it's even underestimated due to the enormous hunger for AI data center energy. I don't know whether this is included in the calculation. The demand for simply all forms of energy will increase enormously
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N@Khlmysee
10Mo
@Leipziger_Jung Did you hear that Orsted has terminated a contract with Cadeler under which one of the ships was supposed to help build a wind farm for Orsted in the North Sea in 2027? The wildlife park is not coming, but Cadeler has been paid compensation for it, which raises the revenue forecast for 2025 by around 100 million dollars.
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Jonas@Leipziger_Jung
10Mo
@Khlmysee Lol no, how did you get the news? They haven't published anything on the IR. That's my problem with the stock, I don't get anything from anywhere haha :D. At HIMS, the whole Fintwit burns immediately when something happens haha.
Well, you can't say no to 100 million in pure profit, but what was the value of the canceled order? It must actually be a multiple of that if the compensation for it is 100 million.
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N@Khlmysee
10Mo
@Leipziger_Jung The current backlog is said to be unaffected by this. Regardless of this, demand on the market is said to be so high that an alternative should not be a problem. I'm going to follow up because people are overstating the news. For Cadeler, I see a chance that they will take money with them and still re-charter the ship.
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Voir toutes les 7 autres réponses
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N@Khlmysee
9Mo
@Leipziger_Jung Orsted is causing uncertainty. I hope to be able to go even deeper. 🥰
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Jonas@Leipziger_Jung
9Mo
@Khlmysee But there's no date for the earnings yet, is there?
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N@Khlmysee
9Mo
@Leipziger_Jung Investor Relations: „H1 2025 INTERIM REPORT RELEASE

Aug 26, 2025 8:00 am EDT“
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Jonas@Leipziger_Jung
9Mo
@Khlmysee ah, ok, thank you :)
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Jonas@Leipziger_Jung
8Mo
@Khlmysee So the results are really good. This year, at the top end of the guidance, we'll be close to 500 million dollars in Ebitda. That means we are trading for 3 to 4 times fwd. Ebitda :D. You can't make this stuff up haha
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Jonas@Leipziger_Jung
8Mo
@Leipziger_Jung 200 million US dollars in net income in H1 xD. If we manage the same again in H2, we will have a P/E ratio of 5.
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