3Mo
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Polish offshore wind industry plans own specialized vessels
Polish companies such as CRIST, WIKE and Baltic Industrial Group have signed a letter of intent to jointly develop and build specialized vessels for the construction and maintenance of offshore wind farms. The aim is to increase value creation in the country and become less dependent on foreign service providers such as Cadeler. To date, the necessary ships have mainly been chartered from Denmark.
The companies are planning to build at least two to four of their own Wind Turbine Installation Vessels (WTIV) over the next few years. These vessels are not expected to be ready for use until 2028/29 at the earliest, as the development and construction of such highly specialized equipment takes several years.
In the long term, this initiative represents serious competition for international providers such as Cadeler in the Polish market. In the short term, however, Cadeler will remain a key player, as the Polish vessels will not be available for several years. The development strengthens the Polish offshore wind industry, creates jobs and promotes local expertise.
Source: https://www.linkedin.com/posts/wnppl_pge-baltica-stocznia-crist-wike-i-grupa-activity-7344613023682048000-kLdO?utm_source=share&utm_medium=member_ios&rcm=ACoAAB-61EYB1egLwlOLYVk0od8JqitoAcqX_C0
Polish offshore wind industry plans own specialized vessels
Polish companies such as CRIST, WIKE and Baltic Industrial Group have signed a letter of intent to jointly develop and build specialized vessels for the construction and maintenance of offshore wind farms. The aim is to increase value creation in the country and become less dependent on foreign service providers such as Cadeler. To date, the necessary ships have mainly been chartered from Denmark.
The companies are planning to build at least two to four of their own Wind Turbine Installation Vessels (WTIV) over the next few years. These vessels are not expected to be ready for use until 2028/29 at the earliest, as the development and construction of such highly specialized equipment takes several years.
In the long term, this initiative represents serious competition for international providers such as Cadeler in the Polish market. In the short term, however, Cadeler will remain a key player, as the Polish vessels will not be available for several years. The development strengthens the Polish offshore wind industry, creates jobs and promotes local expertise.
Source: https://www.linkedin.com/posts/wnppl_pge-baltica-stocznia-crist-wike-i-grupa-activity-7344613023682048000-kLdO?utm_source=share&utm_medium=member_ios&rcm=ACoAAB-61EYB1egLwlOLYVk0od8JqitoAcqX_C0
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@Khlmysee Thanks for the article. I believe that the market is big enough for several players. Cadeler is forecasting that there will be a shortage of installation vessels from 2027 onwards, which will get bigger every year, so I don't think the threat is huge. Nevertheless, for me Cadeler is only a play for 4 to 5 years until the share has reached a good valuation level, because I simply no longer see this business model scaling from 2028/29 onwards
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•3Mo
@Leipziger_Jung All good, my investment case and investment horizon is now the same as yours. I think 50% should be easy. 😊
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@Khlmysee But if they reach 1.5bn sales in 2027 with a 60% Ebitda margin as they do now in some cases, that would be 850m Ebitda. If we assume a 15x multiple, we would get to 12 to 13 billion euros market cap.
That would be 8x from here. That is my case
That would be 8x from here. That is my case
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3Mo
@Leipziger_Jung would be fine with me too! 🤑😅 I'm surprised that the stock hasn't taken off yet... But it was just what I needed to get started. 😬
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•Maybe because it's a Danish company. They fly under the radar. But I can't imagine that the company will double its EBITDA this year and again next year and the share won't move a meter. So at some point in the next few quarters it will take off (if the estimates are met)
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3Mo
@Leipziger_Jung I don't really see why that shouldn't happen. The estimates are usually based on statements about the backlog, which is enormous in this area for both Cadeler and other market participants.
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@Khlmysee I think it's even underestimated due to the enormous hunger for AI data center energy. I don't know whether this is included in the calculation. The demand for simply all forms of energy will increase enormously
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3Mo
@Leipziger_Jung Did you hear that Orsted has terminated a contract with Cadeler under which one of the ships was supposed to help build a wind farm for Orsted in the North Sea in 2027? The wildlife park is not coming, but Cadeler has been paid compensation for it, which raises the revenue forecast for 2025 by around 100 million dollars.
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@Khlmysee Lol no, how did you get the news? They haven't published anything on the IR. That's my problem with the stock, I don't get anything from anywhere haha :D. At HIMS, the whole Fintwit burns immediately when something happens haha.
Well, you can't say no to 100 million in pure profit, but what was the value of the canceled order? It must actually be a multiple of that if the compensation for it is 100 million.
Well, you can't say no to 100 million in pure profit, but what was the value of the canceled order? It must actually be a multiple of that if the compensation for it is 100 million.
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3Mo
@Leipziger_Jung The current backlog is said to be unaffected by this. Regardless of this, demand on the market is said to be so high that an alternative should not be a problem. I'm going to follow up because people are overstating the news. For Cadeler, I see a chance that they will take money with them and still re-charter the ship.
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