@ClaraLvt It’s an FFFP Calculation. If no misprizing would happen - why would futures and stocks and markets fluctuate? It’s a traders expectation. That’s it. There’s always alternate views. That’s how one wins or looses. I didn’t take a bet on rate cut actions. It’s just my opinion. If I’d be in the feds position, and based on public numbers, I wouldn’t cut and fuel and risk a spike in inflation. Especially since the current rate is rather healthy.

I’d just represent the other 8-ish %.

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GeldGenie@GeldGenie

4Mo

@Ph1l1pp If I’m wrong so be it. I won’t care and I’ll make money either way long term 🤷‍♂️

I don’t make a finite claim to be right. But you seem to, so I hope you’re right. 👍

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GeldGenie@GeldGenie

4Mo

@ClaraLvt @Ph1l1pp Oh and lastly: The FED has the problem of double bind.

Cut rates now:
Likely worsens inflation if demand stays strong, especially with tariff-related cost pressures, but could support hiring and avoid layoffs if economy slows. Inflation could de-anchor from 2% target, forcing hawkish comments in the press briefing after. Beeing just as negative as no cut.

Hold rates:
Helps contain inflation, especially from demand side, but risks slowing job growth further, especially in interest-sensitive sectors (housing, capex, credit markets).

One way or the others: some loose some
win.

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ClaraLvt@ClaraLvt

4Mo

@GeldGenie Job numbers are horrible—> rate cuts. And when trillions are poured into betting markets by big banks it’s not just talks but a real analysis that had been made by professionals and you can make big betting against it if you believe that they are wrong. And I am sure you’ve seen the recent raise in bank related stocks after the recent numbers came out, so this rate cuts is mostly already priced in

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GeldGenie@GeldGenie

4Mo

@ClaraLvt again: double bind.

It’s not just big banks betting 😅

And please read some research on FED rates and banking stock correlation in short and medium term. There‘s enough out there disproving your point.

Not gonna discuss that further unless there‘s actual data-driven arguments 😅

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Voir toutes les 7 autres réponses

Jose@Kspykee

3Mo

Very good intuition 🍻🍻

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misinvest@misinvest

3Mo

@Kspykee thank you my friend 🙏

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ClaraLvt@ClaraLvt

4Mo

Most likely already priced in

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misinvest@misinvest

4Mo

@ClaraLvt the price moves in a very lean range for 3 months now, so I believe it is going to break out

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Garcia Y.@priordesantacruz

3Mo

What broker did you buy it from?

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misinvest@misinvest

3Mo

@priordesantacruz From Erste, but I don’t recommend it, because the fees are really high. Fortunately, I have employee account and I can trade with lower fees 😁

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Garcia Y.@priordesantacruz

3Mo

@misinvest ok i see, thx

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Garcia Y.@priordesantacruz

2Mo

@misinvest I hope you did not sell

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misinvest@misinvest

2Mo

@priordesantacruz still have it with a 56% growth in 1 month 🙏

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Garcia Y.@priordesantacruz

2Mo

@misinvest yesssssir, i think gold is a must nowadays

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