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SemiGrowth
@SemiGrowth
3Mo·

$LRCX (+0,91 %) After the weak $ASML (+0,63 %) earnings, I took a quick look at Lam Research and noticed a few things:

  • Lam is quite attractively valued
  • Lam is particularly strong in 2 areas:
  • Asia (China 40%, Korea 18%)
  • Secondary semiconductors (memory, IoT, etc)
  • Lam has a significantly higher service share (than ASML) of approx. 40%


ASML has warned of weak China and Korea sales, as sales are more likely to shift towards EUV and US (US accounted for almost 20pp more sales share than in the previous quarter)


This does not bode well for LAM. We could see weak numbers here in 3 days (earnings) as Asia and secondary semiconductors are not performing.

However, LAM is also somewhat different:

  • There have already been share price losses
  • LAM presented strong figures last quarter (in contrast to ASML)
  • LAM is not so strongly restricted by the US authorities
  • LAM has a high service share, which should limit the downside potential


I would like to buy LAM, but not at this risk. That's why I'm waiting for the earnings to come in.

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9 Commentaires
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Memo0606@Memo0606
3Mo
yes i also find them attractive but unfortunately i already bought them 😅 a few days ago
if it goes downhill again I will buy more
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Pezi@Pezi
3Mo
I'm currently staying away from anything to do with AI or semiconductors. The outlook from $ASML was poor and ASML, as a machine manufacturer, is the start of the supply chain.
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SemiGrowth@SemiGrowth
3Mo
@Pezi However, ASML has given a good outlook for AI machines (EUV)
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news03@user03
3Mo
@SemiGrowth right again
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news03@user03
3Mo
ASML and lam research's dependence on Asian countries and explicitly China is really blatant
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Sebastian B.@Baisse-Jumper
3Mo
@User03 Not that high after all. At least at ASML. The share of sales/profit will become smaller and smaller and the coveted new EUV technology, with which $ASML already earns most of its money, will not go to China anyway. And since new export restrictions are to be expected, ASML will also rely less and less on China. So for me, the issue is pretty negligible in the medium to long term.
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news03@user03
3Mo
@Baisse-Jumper well, a good third is pretty cool 😅
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Sebastian B.@Baisse-Jumper
3Mo
@User03 As I said, it's just old technology. The topic will no longer play a role in the long term. And as an investor, I am only interested in the medium to long-term perspective.
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Smudo@Smudeo
3Mo
Lam is listed in the US and extremely affected by sanctions due to the high proportion of Chinese shares. I see an even higher risk here than with ASML
Sooner or later, China will probably produce here itself.
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