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My 10B model: This is how I try to find possible tenbagger candidates


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The 10B model is my attempt to systematically identify tenbagger candidates. The aim is to find companies that realistically have the potential to grow tenfold over the next few years. Of course, this will only work for very few - but even one hit can shape a portfolio.


The basic rule: size matters. A tenbagger rarely starts at 200 billion market capitalization. The entry hurdle in the model is therefore less than 10 billion euros. Companies in the EUR 1-5 billion corridor are the most exciting because they still have growth potential but are no longer pure early-stage gambles.


I set up the screening with ChatGPT - for data collection, pre-filtering and peer comparisons. Exciting candidates are followed by manual checks: annual reports, management calls, competitive position, balance sheet quality.


Criteria (scoring 0-20 points each, 100 in total):


  • Growth & profitability: strong sales growth (ideally > 20% p.a.) and progress in profitability. Ideally, the Rule of 40 (sales growth % + operating margin % > 40) is fulfilled.
  • Moat: sustainable competitive advantage (technology, network effects, market access, regulation).
  • Market size: addressable market ideally ≥ 10× current market capitalization.
  • Financial stability: solid balance sheet, debt ratio < 3× EBITDA, sufficient cash buffer.
  • Valuation & momentum: multiples vs. growth, downside scenario, timing (e.g. RSI).


Interpretation: > 80 points = real 10B candidate; 70-79 = watchlist material; < 70 = mostly quality stock without tenbagger potential.


$INOD (+0,27 %) Innodata - ≈ USD 2.7 bn / ≈ EUR 2.28 bn - 74 points (in the portfolio)

Growth & profitability: 15/20 - strong double-digit growth, but still volatile.

Moat: 12/20 - niche IP and data sets, but no insurmountable moat.

Market size: 17/20 - AI data services highly scalable.

Financials: 12/20 - freshly profitable, but still volatile.

Valuation & Momentum: 18/20 - very hot (RSI > 70).


Exciting stock, but the momentum masks the financial fluctuations - watchlist for me, not core.


$AMPX Amprius Technologies - ≈ USD 1.6 bn / ≈ EUR 1.36 bn - 73 points (watchlist)

Growth & profitability: 15/20 - great potential in the battery and aviation sector, still early stage.

Moat: 16/20 - technology clearly differentiated, provides lead in certain segments.

Market size: 18/20 - batteries remain a global multi-billion topic.

Financials: 8/20 - high CapEx, no positive cash flow yet.

Valuation & Momentum: 16/20 - volatile but attractive valuation.


An exciting innovation stock - if the transition from pilot to series production is successful, this could be exciting.


$NXE (+2,48 %) NexGen Energy - ≈ USD 5.0 bn / ≈ EUR 4.26 bn - 76 points (watchlist)

Growth & profitability: 14/20 - no revenues yet, but clear leverage at project start.

Moat: 15/20 - high-quality uranium reserves, strong project know-how.

Market size: 18/20 - uranium is experiencing a global surge in demand.

Financials: 12/20 - good cash, but dilution risks after capital rounds.

Valuation & Momentum: 17/20 - positive sentiment in the uranium sector, clear trend.


NexGen is closely linked to my contribution to the uranium supercycle - for me one of the most exciting levers in the energy sector.


$NICE NICE Ltd - ≈ USD 9.1 bn / ≈ EUR 7.77 bn - 79 points (watchlist)

Growth & Profitability: 18/20 - Cloud & AI drive CX platform, Rule of 40 fulfilled.

Moat: 17/20 - technological depth, high customer loyalty.

Market size: 18/20 - huge CX/AI potential.

Financials: 16/20 - strong cash flow and margins.

Valuation & Momentum: 10/20 - expensive, timing is critical.


Top quality - but I would be patient and wait for better entry windows.


$NU (+1,17 %) Nu Holdings - ≈ 73-75 bn USD / ≈ 62-64 bn EUR - 85 points (in portfolio)

Growth & Profitability: 19/20 - high double-digit customer growth, profitability significantly improved.

Moat: 15/20 - strong brand and network effects, but intense competition.

Market size: 20/20 - Latin America with huge address market; US expansion underway.

Financials: 16/20 - stable margins and high capital ratio.

Valuation & momentum: 15/20 - ambitious, but covered by growth.


A quality stock and good benchmark for the model - but at over EUR 60 bn no longer a classic 10B candidate; a tenfold increase from this level is unlikely.


These examples show how differently candidates perform in the 10B model. INOD, AMPX, NXE and NICE are between 73 and 79 points and are therefore exciting watchlist material with clear triggers. NU stands out with 85 points, but no longer fulfills the original "below 10 billion" rule - here I am more interested in confirmation that the model criteria work and that a company can grow strongly in the long term.


The 10B model is not a promise of returns, but a tool for filtering out the most exciting companies at an early stage and then critically examining them. The combination of systematic screening and manual analysis ensures that fantasy and reality are clearly separated - and in my opinion, this is where the best opportunities arise.


Next, if there is interest, I will introduce my Hidden Quality Radar (HQR) - a framework that attempts to identify "under the radar" quality scores through 100-point scoring and link them to visibility factors.


What do you think of the approach - and which small/mid caps under 10 billion would you currently place in the 10B category?

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28 Commentaires

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Thank you my dear,
for your great effort.
I also follow this approach to some extent. However, I only include these stocks in my portfolio as satellites.
NU with almost 50 billion market cap. Of course, it's not a small cap, but it still has the potential.
Have you been able to beat the NASDAQ with your approach so far, and have you been successful?
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@Tenbagger2024 Thank you for your comment and for the kind words.

I also work with these values as a satellite. I beat the NASDAQ over the last 3 years, over 5 years I am behind. But especially the first few years (I started at the beginning of 2021) there was also a lot of trial and error with stocks that I would no longer buy today (e.g. $INTC, $CSCO, $PYPL, $M3BK, $CLI, etc.) :D Let's see how it goes in the next few years. At the moment I feel comfortable with my portfolio and approach. Whether outperformance is possible in the long term remains to be seen - but it is of course a goal.

To get closer to this goal: Do you have any exciting stocks that I can take a closer look at?
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@Liebesspieler
I'm very happy about the exchange. In the last post from @Aktienfox, for example, there were some exciting values.
But of course new exciting stocks are constantly appearing. But my portfolio with 60 positions is hardly able to absorb any more.
My last tenbagger was just $APP, and I still see potential here.
There is a lot of hype about all drone stocks at the moment, so I am being rather conservative at $AVAV and am considering investing in my last post $TDY.
Tomorrow I will observe how the Israeli stocks develop, perhaps there will be an opportunity at $ESLT.
In Israel I am already at $GILT, maybe also Tenbagger potential.
Robotic is also a topic, here I am at $PNG. Oceans are being rediscovered.
With the Bitcoin run, I continue to see opportunities at $HOOD, $COIN, $DEFI etc.
I'm a little apprehensive about Treasurys 🙈.
There could always be tenbaggers in the pharma sector. But very difficult with all the biotech companies.
Here I am with $CAMX, $KRYS and $CORT.

By the way, I still see potential in SoFi
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@Tenbagger2024 Thank you for all the exciting ideas. I'll take a closer look at the values in detail.

By the way, a huge thank you to you for the great content over the last few years. You are one of the reasons why I have decided to be more active on this platform. The same goes for @Multibagger.

It's great what you do here!
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@Liebesspieler
Thank you, but it's not us. It's the whole community.
And I think the way we treat each other here is simply sensational.
That's the way
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Great contribution. Very interesting. How does $ASTK perform in your model? I find them exciting, the only question is whether they will finally step on the gas in the data center sector.
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@Keineui Thank you for the feedback and for the idea. Enclosed is the result, which I have not analyzed in depth:

Asetek is a specialist for liquid cooling systems in the PC and server sector with an additional SimRacing division ("SimSports"). The company is in a transitional phase: while the OEM business with partners such as Corsair or NZXT delivers stable margins, falling unit prices and weak SimSports sales are slowing down profitability. Overall, it is a company with a very small market capitalization and more of a turnaround case than a classic tenbagger.

Here is the valuation from the model:

$ASTK Asetek - ≈ SEK 1.5 bn / ≈ EUR 135 M - 72 points (Watchlist)
Growth & Profitability: 14/20 - Gaming Cooling stable, SimSports weak; operational turnaround 2026 at the earliest.
Moat: 15/20 - Technology lead through >70 patents and OEM contracts, but declining pricing power.
Market size: 14/20 - Niche markets (gaming, simulation) with limited volume but stable demand.
Financials: 13/20 - Gross margin ~45%, still negative cash flow, balance sheet solid after cost cutting.
Valuation & Momentum: 16/20 - favorably valued, turnaround fantasy in AI cooling and server designs.
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Good contribution, thanks for that. I see $INOD being the first of those as a tenbagger. I actually still see a lot of dilution rounds at $NXE. But with patience, it can become one.
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@Multibagger Thank you for your assessment. What are your current values at the top, if you don't mind me asking?
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@Liebesspieler that I want to buy or have in my portfolio
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@Multibagger so depot and watchlist? Thank you ☺️
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@Liebesspieler I believe in $IREN, $NBIS, $INOD, $ONDS, $IPX, $UUUU as tenbaggers, all of which I have in my portfolio.
On the watchlist I have $TTD, $NU, $RIOT and $AMPX, although I still have to decide whether I would rather add to $KULR in case of weakness
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@Multibagger Thank you! Lots of exciting values that I need to look at in detail. This is exactly why I love this platform
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Thanks for the contribution.

I also find $NU very interesting, but then I think I would opt for $MELI, as they are both partly in the same sector. What do you think?
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$MELI is a great value. I chose $NU because the company is more focused. This makes it easier for me to follow the development. But I think both stocks offer similar opportunities
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@Liebesspieler Yes, that's true. The risk but also the potential return is definitely higher there.
I feel safer with $MELI. I haven't done a DeepDive yet, but as far as I've read, both are also active in the fintech sector in South America + $MELI still has an e-commerce division.
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@ShindyDeanMartin Exactly - some time ago I read an article in which it was said that $MELI is the Amazon & Paypal of South America. An exciting combination as a platform - although more complex to understand in detail
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@Liebesspieler
$CPNG I also think it's exciting and perhaps also has the potential.
@ShindyDeanMartin
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Very interesting approach. It would be great if you could give an update from time to time.
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@Mi-t-chel I am very happy to do
Very good contribution Liebesspieler.
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@portfolio_prophet_mvktb thank you very much 🙏
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Thank you for sharing
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Thank you very much.... has convinced me so much that I put up two baskets for Monday morning. Amprius in particular is convincing. KULR Technologies is another candidate - also "ordered" for Monday
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@ZaphodB I wish you every success ☺️
Hey, I'd be interested in the step before you go down the path described here? So how do you find the companies that you then compare etc.? ?
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