6J·

Germany's economy is staggering and the government has been standing idly by for years. Investors probably no longer ...

First of all: it is not the government's fault that we have to endure one crisis after another. Corona, the Russian war, the Middle East. None of these things are the government's fault.

But the way crises are handled is definitely something that can be blamed. And I'm by no means referring to the controversial coronavirus measures.

No, I'm talking about economic policy. The energy transition, which continues to devour billions without any benefit (on the contrary!) for the economy (and highly questionable benefits for the environment), the phase-out of nuclear power, which has not been shaken for years: despite Nordstream, despite the Russian war, despite the Middle East conflict.

Tens of thousands of insolvencies every year show what this does to the German economy. The figures for our automotive and chemical industries, two of the most important sectors in Germany, show this.

And the government is pouring billions into budget holes instead of investing them as promised. At least that's what the Ifo Institute, which cannot be accused of being right-wing extremist (to dismiss this argument out of hand), says.

One of my biggest positions is, as some people know $NTG (+3,41 %) a medium-sized chemical company with wonderful and important products, good management and generally good prospects. But what good is that if the general conditions in this country are getting worse from week to week? Energy prices continue to shoot through the roof?

I'm not yet ready to throw in the towel on Nabaltec because I believe in the company and its figures. But at some point I may have to realize that with an investment like this I have to trust not only the company, but also the economic policy in Germany.

I'm not sure whether I still do.

48 Commentaires

Keineui@Keineui

The energy transition was badly overslept, but everyone is now shouting that prices are now shooting through the roof because of the energy transition? Even today, when every blind person recognizes that energy dependency on gas and oil is simply not sustainable, everyone continues to applaud the incredibly incompetent Minister for Economic Affairs. Why isn't she simply thrown out?
And the energy transition is not the only thing that has been and continues to be deliberately overslept.
What this country actually needs is more progressive economic policy. You don't have to like Habeck as a person, he certainly wasn't flawless, but at least he always had an explanation for his actions.
We need to finally get away from the fact that the combustion, gas and oil lobbies determine the everyday lives of average citizens.

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FairValue@FairValue

@Keineui The fairy tale of the energy turnaround will not come true if it is told a thousand times and ridiculously claimed that we need to go in the wrong direction even more.

There will be no independence from fossil fuels for industrialized nations in the foreseeable future.

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Charmin@Charmin

@Keineui Independence from oil and gas is something I'm actually in favor of. But you can't achieve that by simply turning off the gas tap and blowing up nuclear power plants at the same time ...

Expanding renewable energies and using existing infrastructure for as long as necessary - you have to do that in parallel. With a plan over many years, possibly decades.

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Keineui@Keineui

@FairValue There is simply no alternative. We can discuss whether nuclear power is too fast and too early. But the fact is that going back in is unaffordable today. What happens when you are dependent on authoritarian governments for oil and gas supplies should be well known (and yes, let's include the USA for the sake of simplicity). So what to do, burn coal? Please, that makes me laugh.

So put solar on the fields and roofs, wind turbines wherever possible and then use BESS to support the grid and control it intelligently. The solutions are all there and what's more, it would be much quicker and cheaper than reopening the nuclear power debate.

We would also like to see local energy generation, be it biogas-powered fuel cells or whatever. But we'd rather throw a spanner in the works of companies like VoltStorage GmbH (and no, I'm not affiliated with them in any way), choke off the solar and PV market and give this lead away to China (Solarworld/QCells, you name it)...

Shall I start with the wind industry? Would you prefer that the manufacturers also have to emigrate or that the mountain of paperwork for the construction of a wind turbine is now miles long and it takes 5+ years to get approval?

We would rather bury our tax money in nonsensical and climate-damaging subsidies instead of taking even one step in the right direction. I have to stop, I'm talking myself into a rage here...

But when I hear/read fairy tales about the energy transition, I have to get it out.

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FairValue@FairValue

@Keineui We have over 170 GW of installed solar and wind capacity and although this is a massive overcapacity, we can't even reliably produce our electricity with it and have to keep massive backups ready and use them regularly. The reasons are well known and the storage capacities are simply not there. When that happens, I'll be right behind it, but we're still miles away from it.

And don't even get me started on the fact that only 20% of primary energy in Germany can currently be supplied by renewables. You can't seriously claim that you only have to do more, here and there and a little biogas, and then it would be possible to replace 8k petajoules from fossil fuels in no time at all. That's crazy.

And beyond that, the economy doesn't seem to believe these promises about the energy transition for a second. Otherwise, investment in Germany would have to skyrocket as a result. The opposite is the case.

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TotallyLost@TotallyLost

@FairValue I'm not that deep into the subject, but the storage problem should be solved in the long term by using the excess capacity to produce hydrogen with electrolysis and store it.
The existing and new gas infrastructure should then be used for this.

Of course, this will result in massive costs in the medium term, but once this is in place, we will be completely energy-independent and the costs per kWh should also be lower.

However, you also have to electrify transportation and heating. And, of course, expand the grid.

But I don't think that's impossible, we're not the only ones doing it.
China is also massively expanding its renewables, and not because they're left-wing greens.

I think we want to make progress?
However, continuing to burn fossil fuels is exactly the kind of standstill that is always denounced.

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NEWT@SteelAnacott

@Keineui I see it similarly. Many mistakes were certainly made at the traffic lights, especially the public image was catastrophic and the tabloid media exploited it skillfully. Which probably made some things seem worse than they were. However, what some people feared before the last election is currently becoming apparent: unfortunately, voters often confuse economic proximity with economic competence when it comes to the CDU/CSU.

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SG@RundesBalli1

@Keineui the Russians would still be supplying cheaply if Ukraine had not blown up the pipeline

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FairValue@FairValue

@TotallyLost Storage problem should(!) be solved. Okay, let's talk when it's solved. It won't do us any good in the next 5 years.

China is massively expanding in all areas, including nuclear power and coal, because they want to become the world's number one power and have understood that they need astronomical amounts of energy, preferably diversified and cheaply converted.

We want to make progress? Yes. Thanks to the green transformation, Germany is hurtling full steam ahead into the abyss. Once again. Reality shows: we cannot do without massive use of fossil fuels in the foreseeable future. Maybe in 20-30 years, but not in the foreseeable future.
And many risk assessments at large corporations, but also in medium-sized companies, come to precisely this conclusion, which is why they are increasingly relocating their sites abroad and are only consuming assets at their local sites.

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TotallyLost@TotallyLost

@FairValue... "Okay, let's talk when it's solved. It won't do us any good for the next five years."

And should we therefore stop expanding it?

According to this logic, we can stop all projects that are not completed after 5 years.

Incidentally, it doesn't send out a good signal when a country changes its strategy every fart.
Neither to the economy nor to partners.

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FairValue@FairValue

@TotallyLost We should not stop working on storage technology. I didn't say that either. It's just that without it, an increase in wind and solar power won't bring us anything worth mentioning, neither in terms of electricity nor primary energy.

A strategy should definitely be changed if it was doomed to fail from the outset or turns out to be obviously wrong. How much further downhill does it have to go before this realization sets in?

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Voir toutes les 21 autres réponses

MoneyMaze@MoneyMaze

I think the situation in the last few weeks has shown that the energy transition was basically the right thing to do.
The only mistake was to shut down all (!) nuclear power plants too early.
Unfortunately, it is now too late and the nuclear power plants cannot simply be switched back on/new ones built.
The other countries in the world that have not opted for renewables (and don't have enough nuclear power plants) will suffer more than we will.

In retrospect, I think Habeck is much better than when he was in government, he did a lot of things right.

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Dukke@Dukke

Sleeping through the energy transition, sleeping through digitalization, sleeping through electromobility, sleeping through investments in education and infrastructure. But there are enough greedy, incompetent managers. Home-made problems? Not yesterday, but for decades...

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Julian@MoneyISnotREAL

@Dukke VW sends its regards!

That with the bonuses for the managers and that the state of Lower Saxony also approves it... 🥴

When it comes to lining their own pockets, they're all over it.

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Julia@Quasar

The government is certainly not to blame for the current crises - but the governments of recent years are responsible for the fact that Germany is much worse at dealing with these crises than most other Western countries. And since urgently needed reforms are clearly not possible in this country, this is probably just the beginning.

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Julian@MoneyISnotREAL

@Quasar and that has mostly been the CDU/SPD for the last few decades, with a few exceptions.
So you can blame the current government, because they slept through it, filled their pockets and didn't draw up any kind of plan for the future.

Even now - 95% of the special debt is being misappropriated. This is voter fraud and abuse at its finest. This should actually have criminal consequences, but mei. Judges are appointed by politicians.

Politicians are not to blame for the geopolitical situation, but they are not doing anything about it either. Gas storage facilities sold to US companies in January. Energy transition ... Renewable energies are being blocked, gas-fired power plants and oil-fired heating systems are being promoted.
You don't have to like e-mobility, but our German carmakers still have exactly 0 sales in Asia. Mercedes has sold over 50% there, VW over 30%.

Our infrastructure lives from the substance of the 60s - 80s. That is now slowly falling apart.

The extent of the misappropriation of the debt package will only have a massive impact in 5 - 10 years. Economy destroyed, debts cannot be repaid, ... National bankruptcy. At the moment, we are only descending from the high - to use a capital market analogy:
We are just a few % down from the ATH, but the collapse is yet to come.

There are far too many problems that are not being addressed. A new plaster is simply stuck on and then we are surprised that it continues to fester left and right.

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Fanni_Spielgeld@Fanni_Spielgeld

I always find it funny how the biggest turbo-capitalists mutate into genuine socialists as soon as there is a real crisis. Fun fact: The state is not only there for the well-being of the German economy. It has the task - sometimes even in contrast to this - of reconciling the interests of all so elegantly that neither famines nor civil wars break out, the rich are not beheaded and the poor are not enslaved. We sometimes forget that this alone is a pretty big achievement that not all governments manage to pull off. And no: I am not a CDU voter, neither right-wing nor left-wing green. I just can't listen to the whining anymore, which in my opinion is a much bigger problem than a mediocre government.

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Julian@MoneyISnotREAL

@Fanni_Spielgeld The state is already no longer fulfilling its core tasks. There would be money for this, but the red pencil would have to be applied to positions...

Without an economy, no work, no taxes, no GDP. That is the declaration of bankruptcy for a state.

Of course, it has the task of reconciling many interests and it will never get it right for everyone. However, so much has gone wrong in recent decades.
The fact alone that 95% of the "special assets" (aka debt) are being misappropriated ... As it is not being used for infrastructure, education, reforms for the economy, energy, digitalization, ... which would have been a reinvestment in the form of GDP over the next few years.
So it is thrown out. Our social gap between "rich" and "poor" is widening year by year. Our middle class, which employs tens of millions of people, is heading straight for the wall. Social injustice is one of the biggest drivers of envy, hatred and extremism (left and right). The SPD and CDU are currently discussing how and where they can further increase taxes. There are currently no more wage increases, because you can be happy if your company doesn't throw you out.
(small middle class with approx. 100 employees - now approx. 1/3... and not because the people were bad or the company was mismanaged)

We will pay the bill, especially in 5-10 years, when the state has less and less revenue and continues to increase taxes on the last remaining payers - to the point where the state becomes incapable of acting and cannot fulfill any of its core tasks (that's why we pay taxes, among other things!).

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Fanni_Spielgeld@Fanni_Spielgeld

@MoneyISnotREAL Well, we ourselves don't look after the German Mittelstand very lovingly, preferring instead to shovel our capital into US corporations. And when they announce mass redundancies, we are happy about a few percent higher returns. The money we "earn" as a result is probably not just spent on high-priced European products. How is a government supposed to counter such developments if everyone is always pointing the finger at others instead of starting with themselves?

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Charmin@Charmin

@Fanni_Spielgeld Socialist? I think you need to see a doctor.

I'm the last person who has even the slightest socialist leanings. What's being done right now is socialism, a planned economy. The state is destroying the basis of our industry, driven by ideology. I don't want the state to subsidize or pay, I want it to stop actively destroying the basis of our industry.

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Julian@MoneyISnotREAL

@Fanni_Spielgeld It's also called risk diversification, because my workforce is dependent on the "German state", my entire healthcare, my property, my land and my pension provision (statutory health insurance). All in € and directly dependent on the political and economic situation in Germany.
For reasons of diversification and risk spreading, it is then logical to invest my liquid assets outside of Germany.

Furthermore, we have such a grotty shareholder culture in Germany because, as you write, every shareholder is directly a "capitalist", and the word has a very bad connotation in Germany. Capital via shareholders is important for companies and companies in Europe urgently need it to be able to invest, but we prefer to hoard it in savings accounts and let it be eaten up by inflation.

Your statement is pure conjecture and you claim that because I invest in shares, I only consume luxury goods, don't pay attention to the middle class or prefer to take all the risks for a few percent return...

-Why is Germany one of the few industrialized nations not to have a sovereign wealth fund?

-Why is being a shareholder a direct negative burden (as you are)?

-Why are many companies privately owned? ...because in Germany the stock market culture is seen as "evil", as you do.

- In many areas, there are no functioning competitors to "foreign" products. In the areas of IT, finance, smartphones, ... The EU has gloriously missed the boat. Just think: we've had free real-time bank transfers for a few months now. 🥴 For me as an end consumer, Wero as a payment service provider is more of a beta version, less suitable for everyday use - 20 years too late.
Which credit card do you use? Exactly, Visa or Mastercard, duopoly on the market. European alternative? None.

I take the risk and give a company equity with which it can apply for loans or make direct investments. In return, I receive a return in the form of profit sharing, i.e. added value.

And why are you pointing the finger at US companies for mass redundancies? We don't have to go that far. Our VW managers get bonuses, the employees forgo bonuses or are made redundant. SAP, BWM, Mercedes, the chemical sector, general industry ...

Our government is messing around far too much. Cancelling subsidies for solar systems, promoting oil heating instead and instead of building battery storage systems, emergency gas power plants are being built - with state subsidies.

Let's not even talk about how the special debts are being misappropriated.

It would be like giving me €100 and asking me to buy you a packet of cookies for €5.
I go shopping with the €100, buy ME cookies for €5 and bring you a pack of chewing gum. I keep the rest of the money.
That's what the CDU / SPD are doing with the "special fund" (the wording alone is deliberate deception of the citizen...)

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Alex@A1bund7

I can't understand how you can shift the blame away from the government. After all, they are the only ones who can correct the course. Continuing to do the wrong thing is certainly the worst sign for the industry and the world. That is seriously insane.

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MarTheRadi@marda304

The fact that the money from the special debts has been misappropriated, I would call it embezzlement, is a huge scandal in my view. But the reaction in the media alone, and also here in GQ as an example, shows that something is absolutely wrong here. Why is no one being held accountable for such billion-dollar trickery? Why do our control systems for the separation of powers no longer work? We are sliding further and further into debt without any checks and balances, and we are doing so with our eyes open.

At the same time, we are kept busy every day with what nonsense the US president is up to. Playing golf, giving away shoes. Whatever kind of nonsense. All this distracts us from the fact that we are on fire at all levels.
And there's one thing I don't agree with. Of course it's the government's fault. They have a responsibility. But they don't take it. They're just happy to take the per diems.

What I ask myself as an investor. Last year there was a lot of talk about investing in Europe now because of DT, the dollar and so on. But honestly. Do you feel comfortable putting even more assets in the eurozone? With all the problems that exist here? That would be too risky for me. I get my money here in euros and my property is also in euros. That's enough for me with lumps. Investments are distributed globally. I don't see a rosy future for Europe.

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Basti92@BavarianLion

@marda304 It's incomprehensible to me that the news is completely silent on this topic 🤔 Call it what you will, but for me this money was embezzled and that's a real scandal! Perhaps even the biggest in recent decades (if you look at the sums involved)! I don't even want to know how much of this money went into the private pockets of politicians, but nobody in Germany seems to care, after all, we're perfect 😂 It's much more interesting to see what Captain Orange is up to on the other side of the world! When I look at the stupidity of many people in Germany, I seriously ask myself whether I can still manage to turn things around. In addition, we are still giving billions to a corrupt, criminal "president"
billions to a corrupt, criminal "president" in Ukraine instead of trying to salvage the broken relations with Russia at least a little!
Sorry if that was written in such an extreme way, but what goes on in this country sometimes makes me really angry 🤬

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Mr. K@TechNav

At least you are buying here with 2014 prices... and they are really undervalued. Very good company!

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Name M.@userc818a6f2df6247c9

I'm starting to get an appetite for Nabaltec, can it go down even further? Which companies offer similar raw materials? Doesn't Nabaltec have a "moat"?

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Name M.@userc818a6f2df6247c9

Gemini says: "Nabaltec is a leading global supplier of functional fillers based on aluminum hydroxide and aluminum oxide as well as specialty oxides. Competitors producing similar halogen-free flame retardant products and additives are mainly large international chemical companies.
BNP Paribas Wealth Management - Private Banking
BNP Paribas Wealth Management - Private Banking
+2
The main competitors and companies with a comparable product range include
Almatis: Considered the world's leading manufacturer of premium aluminum oxides.
Huber Engineered Materials: A major player in halogen-free flame retardants, particularly those based on aluminum hydroxide (ATH) and magnesium hydroxide (MDH).
Albemarle: Also produces aluminum hydroxide-based flame retardants.
Nabaltec's competitors in the field of mineral-based flame retardants: These include companies such as Lanxess and Zhejiang Zhongshan Chemical.
Nabaltec specialty
Nabaltec distinguishes itself through its specialization in functional fillers such as Apyral (aluminum hydroxide) and Napox (aluminum oxide), which are used in the cable industry, plastics processing and electronics to reduce flammability.

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