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AktienAmateur069
@AktienAmateur069
9Mo·

After being instructed by @DonkeyInvestor how to present your portfolio on getquin in a sensible way in order to receive sensible feedback, I am hereby starting an attempt to present my model portfolio, which I would like to work towards in the long term.

I already posted my current portfolio the other day, the model portfolio presented here is a kind of wishful thinking of what my portfolio should/could look like in the long term.


My investment horizon and my goals:


I am 22 years old and studying economics, so I still have many years to go before my state pension. However, my goal is to retire a little earlier, i.e. when I can live off my portfolio without reducing its value every year.


My investment strategy:


I have opted for a buy & hold strategy with two ETFs as the fixed core of my portfolio, a few individual stocks that I am convinced of in the long term and a small crypto mix.


The ETFs:


ETF no. 1: $IS3R (+0,56 %)

ETF No. 2: $216361 (-0,23 %)


My single stock/thematic ETFs:


45 individual positions with 1% weighting each, see sample portfolio.


My cryptos:


Approx. 5 to max. 10% crypto weighting.

Of which 50% $BTC (-1,34 %) , 25% $ETH (-2,03 %) , 25% $SOL (+4,53 %)



Why this investment strategy?


I do not yet have sufficient experience with economic indicators and find it difficult to assess how an interesting share is valued at the current time, which is one of the reasons why I have opted for a buy & hold strategy with the two ETFs as the fixed core of my portfolio and a few individual shares that I am convinced of in the long term.


About the ETFs:


I would like to weight both ETFs at 25% each and therefore already invest in both regularly.


ETF no. 1: MSCI World Momentum ETF


This ETF differs from the normal MSCI World in that it overweights stocks with current price momentum, which has proven to be a superior strategy in recent years. With this ETF, I always have the winners of current developments in this rapidly changing world in my portfolio over the long term.


ETF no. 2: Ossiam Shiller ETF


For me, this ETF offers a nice complement to the Momentum Factor ETF, as it invests somewhat more anti-cyclically. The ETF selects the five sectors with the lowest relative CAPE (Cyclically Adjusted Price Earnings) from the S&P 500. The relative CAPE coefficient assesses the relative costliness of a sector based on its current and long-term historical prices and earnings. The method then calculates the sector with the lowest price momentum over a 12-month period, i.e. the sector with the worst performance in the period under review. Each of the remaining four sectors is given the same weighting (25%) and the components of the investment universe are rebalanced on a monthly basis. In short: This is a rather anti-cyclical way of investing, but by leaving out the worst performing sector you are also not falling into the trap.


About my individual stocks/thematic ETFs:


As already mentioned, I am not yet experienced in judging whether a share is currently fairly valued or not. I also don't want to have any companies in my portfolio where I have to research every two weeks whether the business model will still be needed in the near future or not. However, I don't want to do without individual shares altogether either, as a pure ETF portfolio would simply not give me any pleasure. So my solution is as follows:

I take buy&hold-compliant individual shares into the portfolio, where I am simply convinced of the business model in the long term.

I would take these 45 individual positions (including the 3 thematic ETFs) and weight them all at around 1% (excluding the weighting of individual companies in the ETFs). If you buy shares to hold them for more than 20 years, the current valuation plays a somewhat less important role. Even stronger corrections are not the end of the world here, but rather offer good opportunities for additional purchases.


The following shares are in my current portfolio but not in the model portfolio:




Of course I won't sell all of these stocks immediately, I just think that they are rather unsuitable for my long-term strategy, even though I still see good potential for some of them in the near future...

I simply blindly added a few of them to my portfolio at the time without having really looked into the respective company in detail. I will think again (also taking your comments into account) about whether I want to keep these shares or not and when I might sell them.


-. A few of the 45 positions in the sample portfolio are certainly not classic buy & hold companies, for example Tesla, BYD, Intuitive Surgical, MercadoLibre etc., but they are companies that I am personally convinced of in the long term and that I assume will perform very well in the long term.

-. I am aware that the GAFAM stocks that I have in my portfolio as individual positions are also heavily weighted in the ETFs, which is intentional, as I find these companies so enormously strong that I have no problem with them having a total weighting of around 3-4% through individual positions and ETFs.

-. The high US weighting has bothered me for a long time, but I'm coming to terms with it more and more. Many of the companies in the model portfolio make their sales worldwide anyway.


About my cryptos:


I don't want to give cryptos a high weighting, as there is a very high risk involved. I have set myself a 5% weighting. If the weighting exceeds 10%, I halve it again and put the profits into equities. However, if the weighting falls below 5%, I'm happy to buy more, as cryptos naturally also offer great performance opportunities and the high volatility means there are always opportunities to buy.



My outlook:


I will continue to save in the two ETFs and make sure that I add 45 individual positions to my portfolio in the long term, where I am relaxed and also expect a good performance. As things stand, these are the 45 positions from the model portfolio.



Which I am consciously doing without:


-. I am not a fan of dividends. Even if the psychological advantages should not be underestimated, there are simply many reasons why a focus on dividends does not make much sense as a young investor. I want nice price gains that are not held back by high dividends. That's why you won't find any tobacco or oil stocks in my portfolio.

In the withdrawal phase, I will still receive reasonable dividends, as I have some dividend growth stocks in my portfolio, which I think will be noticeable after a few years. I would also like to finance my pension simply by selling some of the stocks.

-. I also deliberately avoid stabilizing factors such as gold. It's unnecessary with an investment horizon as long as mine and simply costs returns in the long term.



I hope the presentation of my strategy is clearly formulated, I would be extremely pleased to receive factual and detailed feedback from you and I will also take criticism to heart.


Many thanks in advance! 🙏🏼

50Positions
100 208,04 €
0,21 %
29
35 Commentaires
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Nostradonkey💩@DonkeyInvestor
9Mo
Great presentation of your depot. You've put a lot of thought into it, you can tell 👍. You already had my feedback. But here's a rough summary anyway:
I'm curious to see whether you can really beat the market with your ETFs in the long term and I'll keep my fingers crossed for you.
I think it's very good that you're not focusing on high dividends.
45 individual stocks + ETF would be too many positions for me. You should keep an eye on the shares.
I would get rid of companies that don't fit your strategy immediately.
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AktienAmateur069@AktienAmateur069
9Mo
@DonkeyInvestor Thank you for your feedback! 🙏🏼
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AktienAmateur069@AktienAmateur069
9Mo
@DonkeyInvestor But I do have one question:

Among the 45 positions there are some practically non-disruptible quality companies, e.g. $DE $BMI or $AAON

What exactly should you keep an eye on here on a regular basis? If the quarterly figures aren't quite as good as expected or the share price corrects a little or has a longer sideways trend, that's relatively uninteresting for a long-term investor, isn't it? How exactly would you deal with such "boring stocks"?
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Nostradonkey💩@DonkeyInvestor
9Mo
@AktienAmateur069 No company is safe. I would keep an eye on the reason why you invested in the company. If you think very long-term, you can, for example, observe the quarterly figures over a longer period of time, how the moat is behaving / is there new competition, are there disruptive technologies that the company is missing out on, what is driving the management, how are growth prospects developing, ...
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Tenbagger2024@Tenbagger2024
9Mo
Hello my dear,
Thank you for the high praise.
But I personally don't see myself as an expert.
That's why I always find it difficult to evaluate a portfolio and everything I write is just my personal opinion.

It is also difficult to discuss this very complex topic in just a few words.

That's why I would be enthusiastic about a regulars' table for equities.

As far as stock valuation is concerned, I would use a chart with a 200-day line and look at how far the stock is above it. It also helps to look at the P/E ratio with the history and, in the case of growth stocks, the expected P/E ratio or also the P/E ratio and the PEG.
There is also the fair value.

As far as your portfolio is concerned, I would be a little more cautious with Hershey due to the high cocoa prices.

I will probably also add Celsius to my portfolio, as Celsius is starting to expand in Europe and still has enormous growth potential. Cooperation with Pepsi and Suntory.

All I can say about NVIDIA is cash machine, the free cash flow has just doubled and the net margin is over 50%. So the war chest is full, so investments can be made and I think there will be takeovers

I have already written something about Medpace. I am convinced of the company because the story is right.

With Tesla, I see Elon as the biggest threat to the company because he is unpredictable. In my opinion, e-mobility is only a temporary solution. The high price war is at the expense of the margin.

Ferrari's order books are full for years. The Portofino is a complete success.
And the margin is unique in the industry.

Fastenal and Stryker are absolute endurance runners and quite robust and continue to grow.

Microsoft and Alphabet belong in the portfolio.

Linde is a profitable company with hydrogen fantasy and there is also a dividend.

Itochu is a Buffet Invest.

Reliance is one of the largest stocks in any India ETF.

Badger Meter is a compounder, think water will be the new gold someday.
Scientists predict that there will be wars over water at some point.

If you have any further questions, please do not hesitate to contact me.
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AktienAmateur069@AktienAmateur069
9Mo
@Tenbagger2024 Thank you for your assessments of the shares!

I will not sell Celsius and Nvidia directly, the path to my model portfolio is still a long process.

With Celsius I will wait for the expansion into Europe and see how the product is received. However, I don't see Celsius as a long-term option... Healthier energy drinks can also be brought out by manufacturers with a bigger name and a deeper moat, e.g. $MNST or Red Bull. In addition, Celsius has hardly any customer loyalty; every consumer has to decide anew every day whether to put the Celsius drink on the checkout conveyor belt or not. As a company in the consumer sector, the only way to protect yourself against this is to have a very big brand name, such as $KO. With Celsius, I'm a little worried that it's just a prolonged hype that will soon be over könnte🤷🏻‍♂️ We've seen how this can end with $BYND 😬

I only have one Nvidia share at the moment, but I will hold it at least until I also hold a Nvidia share through the ETFs, as I still have a lot of faith in the company.

I'm also still a little hesitant about Tesla... I'm more convinced by the products themselves than by the idea that everyone will soon only be driving electric cars. And Tesla is also a kind of AI company. Of course, Elon Musk can be criticized a lot (I don't think much of his character either), but you have to admit that he is simply a genius who is involved in practically all the blatant technological developments that are currently taking place on our planet and I think that Tesla (from a purely economic point of view) can consider itself lucky to have someone like that on board, as this greatly increases the chances that this company will continue to play a role in a very rapidly changing world in the future. But it is certainly not a "no-brainer"😅
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Tenbagger2024@Tenbagger2024
9Mo
@AktienAmateur069
I personally don't think that Celsius will disappear from the market so quickly. The cooperation with Pepsi and Suntory in particular should contribute to the success and establishment of the brand.
Just as we have seen with the example of Monster through the cooperation with Coca Cola.
Monster is an established brand that will probably not disappear from the market and can continue to generate growth.
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AktienAmateur069@AktienAmateur069
9Mo
@Tenbagger2024 I'm curious to see what will happen😌 I originally went in with €500 and recently took €300 profit, but am now back at €500. As of now, I'm reasonably relaxed here and will just let the position run for a while longer. As things stand, however, I'm assuming that I won't hold my Celsius shares for several years, but of course you can't rule anything out on the stock market😬😅
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Tenbagger2024@Tenbagger2024
9Mo
@AktienAmateur069
Not bad as a small addition to endurance runners and compounder values.
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AktienAmateur069@AktienAmateur069
9Mo
@Tenbagger2024 After all, the stock market is no fun without one or two riskier positions😌😄
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AktienAmateur069@AktienAmateur069
9Mo
I would be particularly pleased to receive brief assessments from experienced stock market experts such as @Simpson @RealMichaelScott @Tenbagger2024 @aktien4future or @Techaktien!

I've learned a lot about the stock market from you, so an assessment from you would certainly help me enormously! Maybe you have the time to take a look at it.
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Der_komische_Vogel@Der_komische_Vogel
9Mo
That sounds like a plan 👏🏻👏🏻👏🏻
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Der_komische_Vogel@Der_komische_Vogel
9Mo
Would be a bit too many individual companies for me personally, but stay tuned, I think gut👏🏻💪🏼
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AktienAmateur069@AktienAmateur069
9Mo
Supplement:
I deliberately refrain from a stronger emerging market weighting. The political situation for many stocks is simply too uncertain for me. I am trying to benefit at least a little from the economic upturn in Latin America and India through $MELI $WALMEX* and $QDV5.
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Nico Uhlig@RealMichaelScott
9Mo
First of all, it's great that you've described your strategy and views in such detail.

Basically, I think a portfolio is good, even if I can't say much about the two 25% ETFs. I don't know whether it wouldn't be better to simply use a normal MSCI World or FTSE All World for the basic investment.

Otherwise, your individual stocks are solid overall. I was just a little surprised that you have Reliance Industry in your portfolio in addition to MSCI India. It already accounts for almost 9% of the weighting there. Did you have something specific in mind here?
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AktienAmateur069@AktienAmateur069
9Mo
@RealMichaelScott First of all, thank you very much for your feedback! 🙏🏼
And yes, I am aware of the high weight of Reliance in the India ETF, I had also considered whether I should rather take Reliance out as a single stock and possibly replace it with a $WM or $BRK.B. However, Reliance Industries is simply such a brutally strong company for me that I have absolutely no problem with the overweighting, quite the opposite.
However, I didn't want to do without the India ETF either, as India is a kind of more stable and promising China for me and I would also very much like to be involved in great companies such as $LTOD $MMYT or $INFY and also in possible new companies that could emerge in India in the next few years, the ETF always adapts quite well.
Therefore, I simply leave both positions in Depot👍🏻
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Nico Uhlig@RealMichaelScott
9Mo
@AktienAmateur069 India is of course interesting. Personally, I am currently building up my India share with $FLXI. A construction via ADRs or GDRs is out of the question for me personally.

Otherwise, keep up the good work and build up your knowledge and experience. Then things will look good in the long term.
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AktienAmateur069@AktienAmateur069
9Mo
@RealMichaelScott The choice between $FLXI and $QDV5 was not easy for me either. Even if the FTSE India seems cheaper at first, the exchange rate risk was too high for me and the performance of the index has also deviated significantly from that of the index in recent years. I had a good look at both fund prospectuses and then decided that I simply felt a bit more comfortable with the iShares ETF fühle🤷🏻‍♂️
But of course I also understand everyone who is happier with the $FLXI
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Rendite_Fuxx@Rendite_Fux
9Mo
Basically, I think your approach is great! I'll keep it short: Topic 1. ETF: switch to a world etf. Reason: a momentum etf can also underperform strongly if stocks with momentum do not rise brutally, but all perform poorly or go sideways for several years. (was the topic of today's buy the dip podcast). 2. i think your crypto allocation is really good - but i would think about whether you really want to hold all 3 for the very long term. I have all 3, with a similar weighting, but I'm also planning to take (large) profits over the next few years.
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AktienAmateur069@AktienAmateur069
9Mo
@Rendite_Fux First of all, thank you for your assessment!
Unfortunately, I'm not a fan of a world ETF. Firstly because I only want to cover a very small part of EM through individual positions (with the India ETF, Reliance, BYD, Mercadolibre and Walmart de Mexico) and secondly because I am convinced that the Momentum ETF and the Ossiam Shiller ETF will both perform better.
The overweighting of current winning stocks has always led to better performance and I don't see why this should suddenly change.
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Rendite_Fuxx@Rendite_Fux
9Mo
Hi,
What does the world etf have to do with emerging markets? The world etf in the classic sense includes everything except EM? 🙈 😅
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AktienAmateur069@AktienAmateur069
9Mo
@Rendite_Fux I'm sorry, I thought you meant $VWRL
Then of course I take back the point about EM.
But I also prefer the Momentum Factor ETF to the normal MSCI World.
If you benchmark the two, you can also see that they always perform almost completely the same, except that the Momentum always has the slightly better performance. I believe that overweighting the strong individual stocks is a good way to outperform the normal MSCI World by 1-2% per year.
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Testo-Investor@Testo-Investor
9Mo
@AktienAmateur069 em, small caps and Japan should not be neglected ... you don't know what will happen in the future ... even if your momentum is ok now ... the future can be very different. It can be completely different, as history shows! So you'd better take another look at it. I made the same mistake at the beginning ... but then I was taught better
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Rendite_Fuxx@Rendite_Fux
9Mo
@Testo-Investor Hi, My post was also related to using the Momentum ETF as the core of the portfolio. The description was a bit misleading, which is why I wondered why the ETF "Momentum" is compared to an investment in EM. I myself have of course also invested (slightly) in China equities in recent months, and also have an EM market ETF alongside my World ETF so that I am also invested in such emerging markets (as Gerd Kommer dutifully advises ;) ).
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AktienAmateur069@AktienAmateur069
9Mo
@Testo-Investor I don't want to cover emerging markets broadly. The countries are simply not stable enough for me. I am nevertheless invested here in isolated cases, e.g. through the India ETF, Mercadolibre or BYD. I also deliberately leave out small caps, I simply prefer established quality companies. I cover Japan a little with $8001 and $6367, which is also weighted at over 15% in the Momentum ETF.
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Rendite_Fuxx@Rendite_Fux
9Mo
@AktienAmateur069 Basically, the excess return on small caps (small cap factor) and the theoretical excess return on emerging markets is simply that you invest in them over a long period of time via DCA, i.e. a savings plan, and that may go wrong for 10 years or longer. China, for example, is lower than it has been for many years. But in the long term, at least the statistics show that such investments are worthwhile in terms of excess returns....
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Testo-Investor@Testo-Investor
9Mo
@AktienAmateur069 big mistake your theory... Small caps have enormous potential! Just like China, cheaper than ever -problem of course- but what about in 5 years? Then you have now bought Sau Gondorf and it's off.... Japan... highly interesting ... should be weighted with at least 5% in the overall portfolio... even 15% in momentum won't help :-)
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AktienAmateur069@AktienAmateur069
9Mo
@Testo-Investor Don't get me wrong; I also see enormous potential in China and many companies are absolutely great! Alibaba, for example, is for me at least as strong a company as Amazon, only valued MUCH more favorably. Nevertheless, I have decided to sell my Alibaba shares because it is too unsafe for me to invest in companies where the state simply makes the CEO disappear just because he demands freer markets.
China is unpredictable and therefore the risk is simply too high for me, although I am also aware of the opportunities. In America, things are getting crazier and crazier, but I don't think companies will be over-regulated or even nationalized in the future either. It's debatable whether it wouldn't be beneficial for the population if huge companies like $META $GOOGL or $MSFT were more heavily regulated, but it's undoubtedly positive for share prices that this isn't the case.
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AktienAmateur069@AktienAmateur069
9Mo
@Testo-Investor Japan would have a 15% weighting in my momentum ETF plus a 1% weighting of $6367 and $8001 in my portfolio with a total weighting of 5.75%, so that would fit😌
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AktienAmateur069@AktienAmateur069
9Mo
@Testo-Investor Of course, some small caps have great potential, but out of 100 small caps, perhaps 10 will manage to realize it. I don't have the confidence to filter out exactly these 10 and I don't want a small cap ETF, as the "winning small caps" always "move up" to other ETFs.
In general, however, it is also becoming increasingly difficult for small innovative companies, as the big players have much more resources to push through new innovations.
So I deliberately leave out small caps.
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Testo-Investor@Testo-Investor
9Mo
@AktienAmateur069 According to current science, leaving small caps out is still a mistake. I would think again. But it's your strategy and I don't want to talk you into it... it's all good
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Voir toutes les 2 autres réponses
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Testo-Investor@Testo-Investor
9Mo
Is the 100k now a fake deposit or real money?
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AktienAmateur069@AktienAmateur069
9Mo
@Testo-Investor I don't have a €100,000 custody account, this value was just a good way of demonstrating the distributions. I would like to save towards this portfolio.
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