20H·

"Proudly Serving Customers From Coast to Coast"

Hello my dears,

apart from a lot of blah blah blah, there wasn't much news during the night.

So stay brave and stick to your strategy, better days will come.

The stock market will survive even Captain 🍊.

"DAX slumps after Trump speech - oil prices rise sharply again"

So let's get to the nice and cozy part of the day.

You've voted and I'll deliver.

Only not quite because I've just seen that TJX has passed Dollarama on the home straight🏁.

So today I present the runner-up of the vote, and will probably have to deliver the winner over Easter.

But for now, have fun with Dollarama $DOL (+0,96 %)

"Proudly serving customers across the country."

Dollarama Inc. is a Canada-based company that offers a wide range of general merchandise, consumables and seasonal items both in-store and online. The company operates its business through its subsidiaries, including Dollarama L.P. and Dollarama International Inc (Dollarama International). Dollarama L.P. operates the chain of stores in Canada and performs related logistical and administrative support activities. Dollarama International operates retail stores in Latin America through Dollarcity, a retail company that offers a range of general merchandise, consumables and seasonal items in stores in El Salvador and Guatemala, as well as in stores in Colombia and Peru. All stores are owned and operated by the company. They are located in large cities, medium-sized towns and small towns. The company operates approximately 1,569 stores across Canada.

Number of employees: 14,230

Dollarama shares fall as annual sales forecast misses expectations

Published: 11:05 March 24, 2026

The Canadian discount retailer expects comparable sales growth of 3% to 4% for the 2027 financial year, below analysts' consensus of 3.9%.

The forecast follows the results of the fourth quarter of 2026, which were mixed compared to expectations. For the quarter ended February 1, 2026, Dollarama reported net income of 392.5 million Canadian dollars, an increase of 0.4% year-over-year, with diluted earnings per share of 1.43 Canadian dollars, slightly exceeding the estimate of 1.41 Canadian dollars.

Sales rose 11.7% to 2.1 billion Canadian dollars, driven by expansion in Canada and Australia, while comparable store sales in Canada rose only 1.5%, below the consensus of 2.6%. The shortfall was attributed to poor weather and a calendar shift that reduced the busy shopping days leading up to the holidays.

Operating income for the quarter grew 4.7% to 584.4 million Canadian dollars, with an operating margin of 27.8%, down from 29.7% a year earlier. EBITDA increased by 6.2 % to 711.5 million Canadian dollars, which corresponds to a margin of 33.9 %.

During the quarter, Dollarama opened seven net new stores in Canada and one in Australia and repurchased approximately 888,000 shares for 174.8 million Canadian dollars.

Looking ahead, Dollarama expects to return to its historical pace of 60 to 70 net new store openings in Canada in fiscal 2027, while maintaining gross margin guidance of 45% to 45.5% and SG&A in the range of 14.1% to 14.6%.

Analysts at Jefferies said the company delivered strong earnings, but pointed out that growth at the Canadian store level fell short of expectations, reflecting calendar effects and weather-related disruptions.

They also pointed to margin pressure from the peak period of Australian operations, resulting in higher operating costs and a moderate decline in EBITDA margin. Despite these short-term challenges, the company highlighted that Canadian sales remained resilient, with growth supported by higher average transaction values.

Jeffer also pointed out that the company's international operations, including Dollarcity, were solid contributors to overall results and emphasized that Dollarama's ongoing share buybacks and dividend increases demonstrate financial flexibility, even as investments in Australia continue.

The company has a 'Buy' rating and a price target of $235 at Jefferies, which implies an upside from the current level of around $173.

Dollarama shares drop as annual sales forecast misses estimates

DOLLARAMA ANNOUNCES PRIVATE ISSUANCE OF 750 MILLION DOLLARS SENIOR UNSECURED BONDS

MONTREAL, March 31, 2026

Pressemitteilung – Dollarama

A leading Canadian value retailer

Geographical distribution of turnover:

(2026 CAD)

Canada 6.8 billion

Australia 455 million

CAD in millions

Estimates

Year Turnover Change

2025 6.413 9,3 %

2026 7.256 13,14 %

2027 8.099 11,62 %

2028 8.647 6,77 %

2029 9.342 8,04 %

Year EBIT Change

2025 1.711 14,37 %

2026 1.938 13,28 %

2027 2.125 9,63 %

2028 2.362 11,16 %

2029 2.565 8,61 %

Year Net result Change

2025 1.169 15,64 %

2026 1,309 12,06 %

2027 1.408 7,54 %

2028 1.584 12,51 %

2029 1.787 12,82 %

Year Net debt CAPEX

2025 2.160 246,9

2026 2.294 272,8

2027 5.134 499,7

2028 4.918 354,8

2029 5.776 341,6

Year Free cash flow Change

2025 1.397 11,59 %

2027 1.047

2028 1.397 33,39 %

2029 2.043 46,24 %

Year EBITDA margin EBIT margin ROE

2024 31,71 % 25,49 % 493,8 %

2025 33,09 % 26,67 % 148,94 %

2026 33,05 % 26,71 % 99,04 %

2027 31,96 % 26,23 % 72,5 %

2028 32,94 % 27,31 % 57,03 %

2029 33,7 % 27,46 % 54,3 %

Year Earnings per share Change

2025 4,16 16,85 %

2026 4,73 13,7 %

2027 5,141 8,7 %

2028 5,844 13,66 %

2029 6,73 15,16 %

Year Debt ratio FC Yield

2025 1,02x 3,47 %

2026 0,96x

2027 1,98x 2,03 %

2028 1,73x 2,71 %

2029 1,83x 3,9 %

Year Dividend p share Yield

2025 0,368 0,27 %

2026 0,4332 0,23 %

2027 0,5025 0,29 %

2028 0,56 0,33 %

2029 0,6667 0,39 %

Year P/E ratio PEG

2025 33.1x 32.5x 2x

2026 38.8x 34.9x 2.8x

2027 33.2x 22.8x 3.82x

2028 29.2x 18x 2.1x

2029 25.4x 15x 1.7x

Market value 46,563

Number of shares (in thousands) 272,731

Date of publication 24.03.2026

Fundamental strengths of Dollarama

✔️ 1. very robust business model

Value retailers benefit in all economic phases, especially in weaker times.
High price sensitivity of customers → Dollarama gains market share when consumers need to save.

✔️ 2. Steady, predictable growth

Double-digit increases in sales and profits for years.
Expansion in Canada almost complete, but:
Latin America growth above Dollarcity (Guatemala, Colombia, El Salvador, Peru) is a real driver.

✔️ 3. High margins for a discounter

Economies of scale + efficient logistics
Private label strategy
Very strong cash conversion

✔️ 4. Crisis-resistant

Dollarama was one of the most stable retail stocks in North America in 2020-2023

What type of investor is Dollarama suitable for?

👍 Well suited for:

Long-term buy-and-hold investors
Investors who want stable, predictable cash flows
Investors who are willing to pay a premium valuation for quality

👎 Less suitable for:

Value investors
Dividend collectors
Traders who want to play short-term volatility

My personal assessment (clear & direct)

Dollarama is an excellent companybut the share is not cheap. If you are investing for the long term (5-10+ years), Dollarama can be a solid core holding candidate similar to Costco or Walmart, only smaller and more focused.

For a new entry, I personally would rather wait for setbacks towards 150-160 CAD to get a better risk/reward ratio.

Analysis by Mr. Prompt follows in the comments!

@Raketentoni

$DOL (+0,96 %)

5 Commentaires

Raketentoni@Raketentoni

18H

Hello, this is your Mr. Prompt.

Well, your buddy "Mr. Tenbagger" has reached deep into the phrase box again. "Proudly Serving Customers From Coast to Coast" - I'm in tears with emotion! And it's also a truism that the stock market will outlive Captain 🍊 (our orange friend in the White House). Here he is selling us a Canadian junk store at a sporting valuation as the holy grail and promptly uses the excuse of "bad weather" for the missed sales forecast - an absolute classic in the bullshit bingo of board members.

But well, let's strip away the emotions, ignore the noise and send Dollarama (DOL) through our AOK structure incorruptibly. Let's see whether Mr. Tenbagger has really hit the bull's eye here or is trying to sell us a mercilessly overpriced story stock.

🛒 What the company does
Dollarama is Canada's undisputed king of "I just wanted to buy a pack of batteries and now I've spent 50 dollars on plastic decorations". As a value retailer, they sell knick-knacks, household goods and snacks at fixed prices of up to 5 CAD. In Canada, the market is virtually grazed. The new growth fireworks are now to be ignited via the investment in "Dollarcity" in Latin America (Colombia, Peru, El Salvador, Guatemala) and through fresh expansion in Australia.

📊 Facts, figures and data
I took a look at the current share price (as at the beginning of April 2026: approx. CAD 168) and the freshly announced Q4 figures. Here are the real, unadorned key figures for the file:

Market capitalization: approx. 45.8 billion CAD

P/E ratio (price/earnings ratio): approx. 35.5

KCV (price/cash flow ratio): approx. 27.9

P/S ratio (price/sales ratio): approx. 6.3

P/B ratio (price-to-book ratio): approx. 31.5

Dividend yield: approx. 0.28% (annual dividend of CAD 0.48)

🧮 The formula check
Now it's getting painful for Mr. Tenbagger, because we are using our standards to get to grips with his recommendation:

Core Quality Score: sales growth (13.1% last year) + operating margin (a whopping 26.7%) = score of 39.8.

Verdict: Brilliant. A score well above 25 means excellent, qualitative growth. The operating margin is almost absurdly high for a retailer. Tenbagger is absolutely right here - operationally, this is a first-class machine.

Cash flow quality: Free cash flow recently amounted to around CAD 1.4 billion. If we put this in relation to the massive market value, we end up with an FCF yield of a paltry 3.0%.

Verdict: Failed. A real cash machine only starts above 5 %, ideally above 8 %. Dollarama is simply too expensive to return any significant cash flow on your invested capital.

Dividend check: A dividend yield of 0.28%.

Verdict: Disaster. Although the dividend is extremely securely covered by the cash flow (pay-out ratio is less than 10%), it fails miserably at the absolute minimum of 3.5%. You would be retired before this "mini-yield" grows into a noticeable range through pure increases.

🔮 Future prospects & competition
Mr. Tenbagger argues that discounters are resistant to crises. This is correct; when money gets tight, customers move from premium supermarkets to Dollarama. The expansion in Latin America is strategically clever. However, as can be seen in the Q4 figures, the Australian adventure is already putting pressure on margins (EBITDA margin fell slightly). In addition, management only expects like-for-like growth of 3% to 4% for 2027. This is solid, but a disappointment at this valuation. Ultimately, they are also competing with giants such as Walmart and Costco for customers' price sensitivity, even though they occupy a lucrative niche.

📉 Chart analysis of the last few months
At the end of March, the market did exactly what it had to do: after the presentation of the Q4 figures on March 24 and the outlook for lower growth, the share immediately took a clean nose dive and slipped by over 8 %. When a company is valued like an up-and-coming tech star (P/E ratio > 35) but puts the brakes on organic growth, the stock market shows absolutely no mercy.

🎯 Bargain hunter list (entry zones)
Your buddy is dreaming of a setback to 150 to 160 CAD as a good entry point. Spoiler alert: Even at CAD 150, we are still paying a P/E ratio of 31 and have an FCF yield of well under 5%.

The true "bargain" zone: In order to meet the strict free cash flow yield requirements, the share would have to grow fundamentally for years while the price treads water, or the thing would have to collapse massively to CAD 100 to 115. Only then would the valuation again match the reality of a discounter.

📝 Conclusion, margins & alternatives
To put it plainly to Mr. Tenbagger's face: he is confusing a great company with a good share. Dollarama is an excellently managed company with real dream margins (an EBIT margin of almost 27% in retail is spectacular). The future viability is absolutely given.

At this price, however, Dollarama is a classic case of "priced to perfection" and nothing more than balance sheet cosmetics for the portfolio. It completely destroys the dividend filter and does not deliver the required cash flow. As an alternative in the retail sector for real value investors, one could wait for historically more reliable stocks such as Target (TGT) if it is once again punished excessively after quarterly figures, or simply stick with the existing stability in VanEck Dividend Leaders.

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capital_captain_2693@capital_captain_2693

18H

Thank you for your company presentation. I don't think the company is bad, thanks to the nice steady sales growth and the margins, which are really respectable as a discounter.
But as you have just said, this potential has already been recognized and the share is not cheap. For me, it would be a candidate for the watchlist, but not a buy at the moment as I don't see any undervaluation.

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capital_captain_2693@capital_captain_2693

18H

@Tenbagger2024 and what do you think of $6861, I wrote something about it yesterday and highlighted you 😉

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Tenbagger2024@Tenbagger2024

17H

@capital_captain_2693 Yes, I had seen it, I don't think it's bad. I can only agree with @Get_Rich_or_Die_Tryin. I think he also has the company in his portfolio. And that alone would be a seal of quality 🙈

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PiHu@PiHu

16H

Hi, thanks for the introduction. I've had the share on my watch for a very long time... but I still think it's too expensive at the moment

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