3J·

Nebius seeks to raise $4.5 billion via convertible bond issue

$NBIS (+0 %) announces proposed private offering of $4.5B of convertible senior notes.

• $2.75B of notes due 2030

• $1.75B of notes due 2034

• Potential for an additional $675M Key terms, including the interest rates and conversion prices, will be determined at pricing.

I think there might be a new deal announced maybe next week, maybe with $GOOGL (+1,27 %)

7 Commentaires

jkb92@jkb92

What is you feeling regarding the new deal based on?

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Investor@investingbeginner

@jkb92 September 2025: Microsoft → offering → Meta

The order was:

Sept 8, 2025: Nebius announced the enormous Microsoft agreement, worth roughly $17.4B, potentially $19.4B.

Sept 10: Only 2 days later, Nebius priced the ~$4.3B equity + convertible financing.

Then came another big one:

Nov 11, 2025: Nebius announced a ~$3B, five-year Meta contract. Nebius explicitly said demand for that capacity was so strong that the contract size was limited by how much capacity Nebius actually had available.

So yes: September financing → ~2 months later another hyperscaler deal.

March 2026: Meta → offering

March is even more interesting, but the sequence is reversed.

March 16: Nebius announced the huge expanded Meta agreement:

$12B committed dedicated capacity
plus up to $15B additional capacity
up to ~$27B total
deliveries beginning in early 2027.

Then literally:

March 17: one day later, Nebius announced the $3.75B convertible offering.

March 20: it closed at $4.3375B, with potential for another $262.5M.

Based on previous events that might happen again, also i think end of the day or tomorrow morning we would know at which conversion price the offering was done, i expect it to be 300+

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jkb92@jkb92

@investingbeginner so why would they change the order?

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Investor@investingbeginner

@jkb92 there's no rule how they do the order, anyway it's just a matter of waiting to see the conversion price first and then if any deal is done

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jkb92@jkb92

@investingbeginner sure, but usually it’s good news before bad news as Nebius also did it in the past. That’s why I was asking.

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Investor@investingbeginner

@jkb92 yes i get it, let's see, i wouldn't be bearish. I mean they are not going to raise money for random stuff, more or less to continue the AI buildout. The most important thing is the conversion price that they would announce probably this week.

You can see the previous premiums:

Sept 2025: NBIS equity offering price = $92.50 → convertible conversion price = $138.75 → exactly +50% premium.

March 2026: NBIS reference price = $116.33 → 2031 conversion = $183.22 (+57.5%), and 2033 conversion = $180.31 (+55%).

And because the March notes accrete, their effective conversion prices at maturity are ~$219.86 and ~$216.37, equivalent to premiums of roughly 89% and 86% versus the $116.33 reference price.

So if this is oversubscribed like before it might be a 300+ premium, which means institutions already know that the stock will go much higher, and then if they do some deal with a hyperscaler it's an added plus for us shareholders, which means that the stock will basically go much higher.

Imagine a 30b deal with some hyperscaler, this will take the price to 300+ after the announcement, so let's see. All I know if AI demand is there, then any provider that's providing inference is needed and will only grow if they execute correctly.

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Investor@investingbeginner

@jkb92 https://nebius.com/newsroom/nebius-group-announces-pricing-of-upsized-private-offering-of-5-0-billion-of-convertible-senior-notes

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