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Holy Amubo savings plan

Maximilian · 2025-01-09T11:48:08.838600Z

I will include the $CL2 as a savings plan in my securities account. Would you run the savings plan weekly or monthly? Maybe some of you are also invested. LG Max

Saschko@WarrenamBuffet

3Sem.

I think if I were to leverage here then it would be a maximum bet, i.e. no savings plan, but in a crash with market timing :D

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Maximilian@Max095

3Sem.

@WarrenamBuffet okay 😊you could then simply increase the savings plan

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Saschko@WarrenamBuffet

3Sem.

@Max095 or this. If savings plan then classic monthly

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Enrique@Dividenden_Monteur

3Sem.

Apart from the fact that this ETF is not really designed for a savings plan and buy & hold, I would be cautious with something like this just below the ATH of the indices.
And to quote @Epi: think of the drawdown with such an instrument.

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Maximilian@Max095

3Sem.

@Der_Dividenden_Monteur Thank you for your feedback. Why should the ETF not be suitable for buy & hold? 26% return per year

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Saschko@WarrenamBuffet

3Sem.

@Max095 https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gjECYPOZP9g

;-)

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Enrique@Dividenden_Monteur

3Sem.

@Max095 the 26% is an average that you see in the benchmark, yes. But that's not how it works with leveraged products, you have the path dependency here, i.e. if there is another fall in tech like 2022/23, you have -60% with the ETF and since you have a fixed leverage and not a dynamic one like with a derivative, it takes significantly longer to make up for the losses.

Or take a look at how @Epi works with its gtaa strategy, where you only invest in the leveraged ETFs within fixed parameters.

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Chandra@Chandra

3Sem.

@Der_Dividenden_Monteur In 2022 it made -30% from the high to the low. The index from $CL2 is the MSCI USA, which has just under 600 stocks, so it is quite well diversified. I wouldn't go all-in at the ATH, but there's really nothing wrong with a small savings plan if you're aware of the risk.

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Jonas@jonas189

2Sem.

I have a "roundup" savings plan with Trade-Republic, i.e. the difference for rounding up when I buy something with the card, once a week. As I only rarely use the card for little things in between (a small cappuccino here, a pretzel there), I rarely end up with more than €2 a week. However, I also have a small basic balance of €200, which I could survive without at the end of the world.
Conclusion: Far too risky for a serious savings plan for large assets, but as a small side project, the holy amumbo has been really nice so far!

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Chandra@Chandra

3Sem.

I invest monthly.

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Tenbagger2024@Tenbagger2024

3Sem.

It has a fairly high Europe weighting. Is it leveraged?

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Saschko@WarrenamBuffet

3Sem.

@Tenbagger2024 jop

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Maximilian@Max095

3Sem.

@Tenbagger2024 Yes, exactly. 2x lever

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Epi@Epi

3Sem.

A 2x leveraged USA ETF without a strategy? Easy after 15 years of boom. 😅

You'll need nerves of steel and a good job to get through the next few years. In 2020 alone, the ETF lost 50% within 6 weeks.

Reconstruct how the ETF would have performed in 2000-2010.

Without a clear strategy, I wouldn't put something like this in my portfolio.

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Maximilian@Max095

3Sem.

@Epi Thank you for your feedback, so buy & hold is not a strategy in your opinion?

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Epi@Epi

3Sem.

@Max095 Yes, it is. It is a strategy. It's even a very good one, but only one and one with clear disadvantages. These disadvantages can be compensated for with other strategies.
In the end, it can mean retirement 10 years earlier.

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Maximilian@Max095

3Sem.

@Epi only 10 years? Then you need a better strategy ;)

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Epi@Epi

2Sem.

@Max095 10 years earlier than B&H!

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Patrick Schäfer@Hotte1909

3Sem.

I don't know. I traded with the 3x from time to time on a weekly basis. I had to be very careful. But I never actually did a backtest to see how it would have behaved with a savings plan... Maybe I'll do one sometime 😀

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Maximilian@Max095

3Sem.

@Hotte1909 Hi Patrick, thanks for your feedback. I have now set up a savings plan. Can keep you posted on how it goes 😀

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Patrick Schäfer@Hotte1909

3Sem.

@Max095 yes, I'm also doing a little baking test at the moment. Maybe I'll get it finished then I'll let you know

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Maximilian@Max095

3Sem.

@Hotte1909 With pleasure 😉

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Patrick Schäfer@Hotte1909

3Sem.

@Max095 so I ran through a few scenarios. The fact is that you need balls of steel, and pretty much all the scenarios I simulated were 40-70% in the red. My risk management would probably have been effective by then. But now the good news is that even if you start at the ATH, you will get a positive return after a year at the latest. I have not simulated individual purchases at the ATH. But I wouldn't have expected this result myself. Now we come back to the but 😉 Unfortunately, growth is always finite. At some point it can't go any higher. Of course, inflation also drives up market apilization. If we leave that out of the equation, we can still achieve growth (automation saves labor, etc.), but somewhere/sometime the point will probably be reached where nothing more can be done. Or we simply can't imagine it that way. Who knows what new industries will be added in the future... If you had told Generall Motors in 1950 that there would be companies worth trillions. They would have chased you away.

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Patrick Schäfer@Hotte1909

3Sem.

@Max095 Mind you, this only refers to this ETF since its launch. If things go the way they did between 00-10, you will certainly need longer to become positive. But you still have how many 35 years until "retirement"?

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Maximilian@Max095

3Sem.

@Hotte1909 Wow! Thank you so much for your detailed summary and for making the effort! 😊 Exactly, over 30 years until retirement. Then I could add it as a small "yield driver" alongside my $FGEQ.

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