5Mo·

Bottleneck Space Infrastructure: 1st launch 🚀

Space infrastructure is increasingly developing into a real infrastructure level. In fact, the first bottlenecks are already emerging today!

With the development of large satellite constellations, military systems and new communication networks the need for reliable access to orbit is increasing much faster than long expected.

This is not just about rockets. It is becoming increasingly important who can reliably organize launches, integrate payloads and bring satellites precisely into their target orbits.

This also became apparent recently when $ASTS (+2,68 %) (AST SpaceMobile) failed to reach the originally planned orbit after a false launch. Space infrastructure often fails not because of the idea itself, but because of the operational implementation.

Launch Infrastructure is thus gradually evolving from a vision to a genuine industrial infrastructure level.

The bottleneck lies on several levels at the same time:

available launch capacity
launch frequency
precise orbital placement
militarily resilient launch systems
vertical integration
industrial production capability

As satellite density increases, reliability becomes more important than individual spectacular missions. SpaceX has massively changed this market. Reusable rockets and high launch frequencies have significantly reduced the cost of entry into orbit.

At the same time, a second ecosystem is emerging around this new infrastructure. $RKLB (+0,71 %) (Rocket Lab) is working on a more industrialized launch and space systems platform. $FLY (-0,34 %) (Firefly Aerospace) addresses responsive launch systems (flexible, fast launch capability) as well as increasing government and military requirements.

$LUNR (-0,52 %) (Intuitive Machines) addresses early lunar and infrastructure missions. $RDW (+0,13 %) (Redwire) is increasingly positioning itself along the technical value chain in orbit.

Traditional aerospace and defense companies are also benefiting from the fact that access to orbit is becoming more strategically relevant.

With growing activity in space, the bottleneck is slowly shifting further. No longer just: Can we launch? But rather: Can we operate infrastructure in orbit permanently? More on this in the next post.

#wikifolio
#ScaleLimits

11 Commentaires

Flantox@Flantox

5Mo

Thanks for the contribution 👏

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ScaleLimits@ScaleLimits

5Mo

@Flantox Many thanks for the positive feedback 🙏🏻

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GHF@GHF

5Mo

Thank you, I totally agree with you on the content. I have a lot of confidence in the space sector in the short and medium term.
However, I would not only look at the USA, but also at Europe. The European countries are trying to emancipate themselves from the USA and will pump many, many billions into European companies. Unfortunately, there are not too many purebred European space companies that are listed on the stock exchange. Apart from $OHB and $ETL, these are mainly the well-known defense and aerospace companies in Europe

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ScaleLimits@ScaleLimits

5Mo

@GHF I have a similar view. Europe should become much more strategically active in the space sector, especially with a sovereign infrastructure and independent access to orbit.

I also find OHB exciting in this context, I also have it in my portfolio. In my view, however, the company is less at the classic launch level and more at the level where the next topics are emerging: Satellite Systems, Orbital Services and Space Data.

I will go into more detail on these levels (see visual) in the next parts of the series.

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Chris@Multibagger

5Mo

I always find your posts very interesting. I think it would be very good if you could name your favorites for each topic with the price target you see. I am also invested in many of the stocks. I would therefore be interested to know whether our assessments coincide

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ScaleLimits@ScaleLimits

5Mo

@Multibagger Thank you 😊 that makes me happy. I look less at traditional price targets or "favorite stocks". What's more important to me is whether a company is sitting on a structural bottleneck and whether this bottleneck becomes more important as it scales up. So I come from the bottleneck rather than the company.

In the space sector in particular, I believe there is a difference between general exposure to the trend and companies that really address critical infrastructure levels.

That's why I'm more interested in questions like: Will this capability become difficult to replace in the future? Will there be operational dependency? Will the infrastructure become more important or more replaceable with increasing complexity?

My personally most exciting stocks are therefore often not the mainstream stocks, but smaller companies that I believe could face future bottlenecks.

One example would be Astroscale from Japan. Space debris still sounds like a niche topic today. In the long term, however, debris removal could become a critical factor even for large constellations and systems. In extreme cases, even for SpaceX itself.

Astroscale is now also building up momentum and the market is slowly beginning to recognize the potential bottleneck.

As long as the bottleneck exists and the company delivers operationally, it remains interesting for me. If the situation changes, I will either swap the stock or see where the next relevant bottleneck arises.

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Chris@Multibagger

5Mo

@ScaleLimits I see it the same way. My buyin at $186A is €4.80. So I am around 115% ahead. What do you think of $SIDU? Probably not enough of a bottleneck for you?

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ScaleLimits@ScaleLimits

5Mo

@Multibagger Ah, nice, you have Astroscale too! I bought the stock for €4.30 on January 8 and am now up 147%. And no, SIDU is not a bottleneck stock for me. In my opinion, they do "something with space" without really being an exciting bottleneck player. And I don't find the long-term price development from over 1,052 $ to just 4 $ convincing either 🤷🏻‍♂️

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Chris@Multibagger

5Mo

@ScaleLimits Well, you're focusing on the wrong direction. I see enough air up to the ATH. 😉😂

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ScaleLimits@ScaleLimits

5Mo

@Multibagger Yes, you've just opened up a whole new perspective for me, haha 🤗

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Chandra@Chandra

5Mo

Please also add who is to blame for the fact that the satellite from $ASTS did not arrive where it was supposed to. It sounds as if $ASTS is to blame, which is not the case.

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