Following its second downward revision of its forecast within three months, Rheinmetall stock is firmly in bearish territory. On the evening of November 4, 2026, the defense contractor slashed its annual targets to approximately €13.2 billion in revenue (previously €13.7 to €14.2 billion) and an operating margin of about 18.5% (previously around 19%), because the major Bundeswehr contract “Arminius” for the Boxer fleet won’t be awarded until 2027 and deliveries of artillery ammunition are being delayed. On Xetra, the stock plummeted by 16.1% to €841.50 on November 5, 2026; on November 6, 2026, they slipped to €806.80 and were trading at €815.80 at 10:08 a.m. This puts them about 59% below the record high of €2,008. Operationally, the third quarter was strong: Revenue rose by just under a third to €3.15 billion, and operating profit increased by 62% to €553 million. The catch is cash flow: After nine months, operating free cash flow stands at −1,698 million €. Analysts are divided in their reactions; Bernstein downgrades the stock to “Market Perform” with a price target of 1,000 €, while RBC maintains its “Outperform” rating with a price target of 1,600 €. From a technical analysis perspective, a procyclical sell signal is in effect with a target of €763; the chart will not improve until the price rises above €1,117.
Key Points
- Price: €815.80 (Xetra, Nov. 6, 2026, 10:08 a.m., −3.05%), closed Nov. 5, 2026 at €841.50 (−16.1%), new 52-week low €806.80
- 2026 forecast lowered: Revenue around €13.2 billion, operating margin around 18.5%, cash conversion target removed
- Q3 2026: Revenue €3.15 billion, operating profit €553 million (+62%), margin 17.5%, above the consensus of 16.3%
- Caveats: Operating free cash flow after nine months at −€1,698 million; backlog at €78.0 billion, below the level at the end of June
- Analysts: Average price target of around €1,249 based on six recent reports, ranging from €1,000 (Bernstein) to €1,600 (RBC)
- Chart: Target of €763, with lower targets at €670 and €575; chart recovery only above €1,117
- Dates: Capital Markets Day on November 26 and 27, 2026; 2026 financial results on March 11, 2027
What are the current key figures for Rheinmetall stock?
Following the forecast shock, the Rheinmetall stock now trades at around €815.80, giving the company a market capitalization of approximately €38 billion.
That is about 59% less than the record high of €2,008 in October 2025 and about 48% less than at the end of 2025. All prices are based on Xetra trading in euros.
- Price (Xetra: RHM): €815.80 (−3.05%) (Nov. 6, 2026, 10:08 a.m.)
- Previous day’s closing price: €841.50 (−16.1%) (November 5, 2026)
- Closing price before the forecast revision: €1,003.40 (November 4, 2026)
- 52-week low: €806.80 (intraday) (November 6, 2026)
- 52-week high: €1,966.00 (January 2026)
- Record high (all-time high): €2,008 (October 2025)
- Distance from all-time high: approx. −59% (November 6, 2026)
- Year-to-date performance: approx. −48% (year-end 2025: €1,561) (November 6, 2026)
- Market capitalization: approx. €38 billion (November 6, 2026)
- Revenue for Q3 2026: €3.15 billion (just over +33%) (November 5, 2026)
- Operating income for Q3 2026: €553 million (+62%), margin 17.5% (November 5, 2026)
- Revenue for the first 9 months of 2026: €8.38 billion (+38%) (November 5, 2026)
- Operating profit for 9M 2026: €1,339 million, margin 16.0% (previous year: 13.1%) (Nov. 5, 2026)
- Earnings per share for 9M (continuing operations): €14.44 (previous year: €7.83) (Nov. 5, 2026)
- Operating Free Cash Flow for 9M: −€1,698 million (previous year: −€798 million) (November 5, 2026)
- Backlog: €78.0 billion (previous year: €56.7 billion) (September 30, 2026)
- 2026 Revenue Forecast: approximately €13.2 billion (previously €13.7 to €14.2 billion) (November 4, 2026)
- 2026 Operating Margin Forecast: approximately 18.5% (previously approximately 19%) (November 4, 2026)
- Adjusted P/E ratio / 10-year average: 28.8 / 17.5 (Aktienfinder) (November 6, 2026)
- Dividend for 2025 / Yield: €11.50 / approx. 1.4% (2026)
- Average analyst price target: approx. €1,249 (6 reports since Nov. 2, 2026) (Nov. 6, 2026)
- Upcoming Dates: Capital Markets Day Nov. 26–27, 2026; 2026 Earnings Release on Mar. 11, 2027
- WKN / ISIN / Ticker: 703000 / DE0007030009 / RHM
What news is affecting Rheinmetall stock—and why is it falling?
Rheinmetall stock is falling because the company had to lower its annual forecast for the second time in three months, further eroding investor confidence.
According to JPMorgan, this is already the fifth revenue or earnings warning within eleven months. On November 6, 2026, Bernstein followed suit with a downgrade, and the stock fell to a new 52-week low of €806.80. You can find all the details on the forecast shock from November 4 and 5 in my news article Rheinmetall Aktie News. Just how differently the defense sector is performing right now is illustrated by RENK Aktie: The tank transmission specialist delivered solid figures on the same day without any forecast shock.
- November 6, 2026 – Bernstein downgrades: Bernstein downgrades the stock from “Outperform” to “Market Perform,” and the price target drops from €1,200 to €1,000. Analyst Adrien Rabier favors TKMS, Leonardo, Safran, and MTU in the sector. The stock falls to a new 52-week low of €806.80. (Very bearish)
- November 5, 2026 – Price Plunge of 16.1%: Xetra close at €841.50 after €1,003.40 the previous day; intraday low of €818.70. Rheinmetall is the worst performer on the DAX and has not been this low since February 2025. (Very bearish)
- November 5, 2026 – Q3 Results: Strong Operational Performance, Weak Cash Flow: Revenue of €3.15 billion, operating profit of €553 million (+62%), margin 17.5% above consensus. Operating free cash flow after nine months: −€1,698 million, backlog: €78.0 billion. (Mixed)
- November 5, 2026 – Price targets lowered: JPMorgan lowers to €1,150 (Neutral, previously €1,350), Citigroup to €1,374 (Buy, previously €1,408). Berenberg maintains its Hold rating at €1,020 and sees medium-term estimates at risk. (Bearish)
- November 5, 2026 – German government set to take a stake in KNDS: According to Reuters, the German government has reached an agreement with the owner families to acquire a 50% stake in tank manufacturer KNDS, with a purchase price below €7.2 billion (unofficially confirmed). (Neutral)
- November 4, 2026 – Ad hoc: 2026 forecast lowered again: Revenue now expected to be only around €13.2 billion instead of €13.7 to €14.2 billion; margin around 18.5% instead of around 19%. Reasons: Arminius contract not until 2027, delayed acceptance of artillery ammunition. RBC maintains Outperform rating at €1,600. (Very bearish)
- October 9, 2026 – Berenberg downgrades to Hold: Berenberg lowers its rating from Buy to Hold, with a price target of €1,020. Reason: Uncertainty regarding medium-term growth. (Bearish)
- August 6, 2026 – First forecast cut: Following the cancellation of the F126 frigate project, Rheinmetall lowers its 2026 revenue forecast to €13.7 to 14.2 billion. (Bearish)
What does Rheinmetall management say about Q3 and the forecast cut?
Management does not see a demand problem, but rather a timing issue: Orders and deliveries are being postponed, but the growth trajectory is expected to remain intact.
CEO Armin Papperger emphasizes: “Our growth trajectory is solid and sustainable.” Demand remains high, and Rheinmetall continues to win major contracts. According to dpa-AFX, CFO Klaus Neumann expects the Arminius contract to be awarded in the first quarter of 2027.
What went well: Profitability. The operating margin rose from 13.1% to 16.0% after nine months, and to 17.5% in the third quarter. Air Defense increased revenue by 63% to €731 million, while Weapons and Ammunition achieved a margin of 23.4%. Rheinmetall’s order intake—that is, the new order volume—stood at €19.1 billion after nine months, up 19% from the previous year.
The catch: This is the second forecast revision downward within three months. Operating free cash flow stood at −1,698 million euros after nine months, compared with −798 million euros in the prior year; the target of a cash conversion rate above 40% has been scrapped. Although the backlog rose to €78.0 billion, it remains below the level recorded at the end of June, when it was still over €80 billion.
Outlook: For 2026, Rheinmetall expects revenue of approximately €13.2 billion, up from €9.94 billion the previous year, and an operating margin of around 18.5%. New medium-term targets are expected to be announced at the Capital Markets Day on November 26 and 27. JPMorgan anticipates that the targets for 2030 will be revised downward there, possibly significantly.
What does Rheinmetall do—and how does the company make its money?
Rheinmetall generates revenue from tanks, ammunition, air defense systems, military electronics, and—since 2026—naval vessels, primarily for Germany and its NATO partners.
The Düsseldorf-based DAX-listed company (ISIN DE0007030009, WKN 703000) generated revenue of approximately €8.38 billion in the first nine months of 2026, with 41.3% coming from Germany and 58.7% from international markets. Armin Papperger is the CEO.
Vehicle Systems: Battle tanks and armored personnel carriers, wheeled vehicles such as the Boxer, and logistics vehicles. This is the largest segment, with revenue of €3.90 billion (+20%) after nine months and a margin of 12.0%. The postponed Arminius project is also part of this segment.
Weapons and Ammunition: Artillery and tank ammunition, as well as weapon systems. Revenue of €2.71 billion (+34%) and, at 23.4%, the highest margin in the Group. Delayed batch acceptances of artillery ammunition are the second reason for the downward revision of the forecast.
Air Defense: Air defense systems such as Skynex and Skyranger. With revenue up 63% to €731 million, this segment is the growth star; the margin rose to 18.5%.
Digital Systems: Military electronics, command and control systems, and digitalization. Revenue of €1.33 billion (+29%), with a margin of 8.9%.
Naval Systems: The naval business has been part of the group since the end of February 2026 and generated €679 million in revenue with a 10.5% margin over seven months.
Partner and Competitor KNDS: According to Reuters, the German government plans to acquire a 50% stake in tank manufacturer KNDS (unofficially confirmed). For Rheinmetall, this is primarily a sign of how heavily the government is involved in the land systems business. The agreement has no direct impact on Rheinmetall’s financial results.
Fundamental Analysis: Is the Rheinmetall Stock a Bargain After the Plunge?
Measured against its own historical performance, the Rheinmetall stock is not cheap even after the plunge: According to Aktienfinder, the adjusted P/E ratio stands at 28.8, while the 10-year average is 17.5.
The stock is also well above its historical averages in terms of the price-to-cash-flow ratio (29.1 compared to an average of 13.1) and the price-to-sales ratio (3.7 compared to 1.3). The market is therefore still pricing in part of the expected growth in advance.
Fair Value: The fair value line based on adjusted earnings for 2026 is still below the current price. It would not reach today’s price level until the earnings estimates for 2027 are factored in. If the estimates remain stable following the revisions, the valuation will at least no longer be excessive. If they decline after the Capital Markets Day, the fair value will shift further into the future.
Margins: Rheinmetall is delivering here. The operating margin rose to 16.0% after nine months (previous year: 13.1%), and earnings per share from continuing operations rose to €14.44 (previous year: €7.83). For the full year, the Group is targeting around 18.5%, as the fourth quarter is traditionally the strongest.
Cash Flow and Balance Sheet: This is the weak spot. After nine months, operating free cash flow stands at −1,698 million €. Rheinmetall is building up inventory for its planned growth, while at the same time advance payments—such as those from the postponed Arminius contract—are lacking. The fact that the target of a cash conversion rate above 40% has been scrapped shows that, even in 2026, the Group is likely to tie up more money in current assets than hoped for.
Industry Comparison: RBC points to a valuation discount of just over 50% relative to the sector, which may already partially reflect the bad news. Bernstein, on the other hand, does not consider the stock cheap enough despite the plunge and sees a lack of catalysts. In contrast, my analysis of Siemens Energy Aktie.
Dividend: For 2025, Rheinmetall paid €11.50 per share; at the current price, that represents a yield of about 1.4%. The dividend is thus more of an afterthought; the growth story remains the decisive factor.
Fair Value Valuation of Rheinmetall Stock (RHM) for 2026 (as of Nov. 6, 2026) – Source: Aktienfinder / Christian Lill
Rheinmetall Stock Price Targets and Forecast for 2026
On average, analysts see a price target of around €1,249 for Rheinmetall stock—a good 50% above the current price of €815.80—but from a technical analysis perspective, the stock remains firmly in bearish territory.
Following the profit warning, several firms have lowered their targets, with the range extending from €1,000 (Bernstein) to €1,600 (RBC). Investors have already experienced firsthand just how long a series of downward revisions can weigh on a chart Porsche Aktie painful experience.
Key price levels:
- All-time high: €2,008 (October 2025), 52-week high: €1,966 (January 2026)
- Current price: €815.80 (Xetra, Nov. 6, 2026, 10:08 a.m.), closing price Nov. 5, 2026: €841.50
- Chart breakout only above: €1,117 (€1,117.28); above that, €1,240 and €1,450
- Broken support zone: around €928 (€928.16), breached via a price gap
- Next downside target: €763 (€763.11)
- Additional support levels: €670 (€670.44) and around €575
Analysts’ price targets:
- Average price target: around €1,249 (six reports since November 2, 2026)
- Bernstein: Market Perform, €1,000 (November 6, 2026; previously Outperform and €1,200)
- Berenberg: Hold, €1,020 (November 5, 2026, confirmed)
- JPMorgan: Neutral, €1,150 (November 5, 2026; previously €1,350)
- Citigroup: Buy, €1,374 (November 5, 2026; previously €1,408)
- Jefferies: Buy, €1,350 (November 2, 2026, prior to the forecast reduction)
- RBC: Outperform, €1,600 (November 4, 2026, confirmed following the ad hoc announcement)
Chart Analysis:
Rheinmetall Stock (RHM) Chart Analysis and Price Targets for 2026 (as of Nov. 6, 2026) – Source: Stock3 / Christian Lill
Here is the daily chart. The stock remains firmly in bearish territory. Following the profit warning, it broke through the gray support zone around €928 via a downward price gap; furthermore, a falling downtrend line has been weighing on the price since December 2025. The procyclical sell signal is active, and the €763 level should still be reached (blue arrow).
If selling pressure persists, the next support levels are at €670 and €575. The price is trading below the Ichimoku cloud, and the MACD is negative. The RSI(10) is clearly oversold at 22.90, so technical rebounds are possible at any time. However, they do not change the overall picture as long as the stock trades below €1,117.
The chart outlook will only improve above €1,117. Above that level, €1,240 and €1,450 would be the next targets (blue alternative scenario).
Conclusion: Rheinmetall Stock—Sell, Hold, or Wait and See?
Following the second downward revision of its forecast, the Rheinmetall stock remains a matter of confidence: Operationally, revenue and margins are growing strongly, but on the stock market, it is the missed targets and negative cash flow that currently matter most.
Analysts consider an average price of around €1,249 to be fair, but Bernstein’s downgrade shows that even previous optimists are losing patience. The Capital Markets Day on November 26 and 27 will be decisive, as Rheinmetall is expected to present new medium-term targets then.
From a technical analysis perspective, the situation is clear: The stock is firmly in bearish territory, the procyclical sell signal is active, and the €763 level should still be reached. Below that, €670 and €575 await as the next support levels. A technical recovery will only occur above €1,117.
Anyone looking for a counter-trend play in the defense sector should take a look at Hensoldt Aktie — while Rheinmetall is cutting its targets for the second time, the sensor specialist has raised its forecast.
✅ Opportunities
- Q3 margin of 17.5%, well above the consensus of 16.3%
- Backlog of €78.0 billion secures revenue for years to come
- Air Defense up 63% after nine months
- Arminius postponed, not scrapped, according to management (expectation: Q1 2027)
- Average price target around €1,249; RBC sees €1,600
- RSI(10) at 22.90 is oversold; a reversal is possible at any time
⚠️ Risks
- Second forecast cut within three months; according to JPMorgan, fifth warning in eleven months
- Operating free cash flow after nine months: −€1,698 million
- Capital Markets Day in late November: fears of lowered 2030 targets
- Valuation above the historical average (adjusted P/E ratio of 28.8 vs. 17.5)
- Support at €928 broken via a price gap; target €763
- Below that, support levels not until €670 and €575
Sources
- Rheinmetall AG: Quarterly Statement Q3 2026 / Press Release on the First Nine Months (November 5, 2026)
- Rheinmetall Investor Relations: Ad-hoc announcement regarding the 2026 forecast (November 4, 2026) and financial calendar
- Deutsche Börse: Rheinmetall AG on Xetra (price as of Nov. 6, 2026, 10:08 a.m., 52-week range)
- Stock Prices: Alpha Vantage (RHM.DEX, daily and weekly data through Nov. 5, 2026, closing price €841.50); Stock3 / Lang und Schwarz (Nov. 6, 2026)
- Analysts: dpa-AFX Analyser (Bernstein Nov. 6, 2026; Berenberg, JPMorgan, Citigroup Nov. 5, 2026; RBC November 4, 2026; Jefferies November 2, 2026; Berenberg October 9, 2026)
- Company announcement and market reaction: dpa-AFX (ROUNDUP Nov. 5, 2026), Stuttgarter Zeitung (Nov. 5, 2026)
- KNDS: Reuters (November 5, 2026)
- Stock Finder: Fair-Value Valuation and Multiples for Rheinmetall, as of November 6, 2026
- Stock3: Rheinmetall daily chart (Lang and Schwarz), January 14, 2025, through November 6, 2026
This is not investment advice—all information is provided solely for financial education purposes.
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