3Sem.·

Lithium

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8 Commentaires

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Had a good nose
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Are you invested?
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@Hotte1909 Yes, I bought a few days ago. My purchase price is 0.11 euros 😅
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Same here. Already had it on the screen at 5ct and wanted to buy it. But that didn't work for days at Trade Republic, only when it cost 15ct. I was still able to buy them for 11ct in the end and am holding them for now 🙂
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If you look at the current situation, especially with regard to the Wolfsberg lithium project, it all seems a little dubious.

1. lack of permits / lack of project maturity
- Although the company has had mining rights since 2011, essential permits for mining were still missing at the end of 2024. (EIA / environmental impact assessment has not yet been formally decided) 
- The operator claimed in press releases that the mine was "fully approved", which is misleading according to local authorities and the media, as procedures are still pending. 
- It became public that the competent authority (Carinthian provincial government) would most likely insist on an EIA, which would take time and effort. 
2. ambitious timetables & optimism
- Statements that mining could begin as early as the end of 2025 are highly optimistic and not well-founded. 
- The financial requirement (approx. USD / EUR 500 million) was mentioned several times - sometimes as if this was not a major obstacle ("Nope" was the response to a question about the lack of capital). 
- Turnover figures and value creation levels from lithium hydroxide production were presented with idealized parameters (lithium prices, production volumes) and associated with great potential. 
3. lack of communication / lack of transparency
- The company was difficult to reach in the community, answers were delayed or evasive, partly channeled through PR agencies. 
- In the company register, a Viennese landline number is listed at the address in Wolfsberg, which refers to a law firm - this appears to be a detour or concealment. 
- The mayor of the municipality expressed skepticism and described the project as more speculative than a genuine mining project ("They want to get approval to drive up the share price and then sell if necessary") 
4. previous sanctions / regulatory complaints
- The FMA (Austrian Financial Market Authority) imposed fines, e.g. for late ad hoc disclosures or misleading market communication 
- There were reports of house searches at offices, problems with former corporate structures and possible corruption allegations against Tony Sage, founder / liaison person. 
5 Motives and intent - allegations of speculation
- Critics claim that the project primarily serves as a capital market vehicle: i.e. holding mining rights, advertising permits, increasing the share price and then either selling or disposing of holdings. 
- The suspicion is expressed that the primary aim is not to mine, but to act as an investment and speculate. 
6. capital requirements / financing gap
- It is often emphasized that around USD 500 million (or EUR) in financing is required to actually implement the project - a considerable sum that has not yet been fully secured. 
- In earlier reports, the targeted investment framework was stated as ~EUR 450 million. 
7. risks in the valuation environment / market distortion
- Statements on future sales are based on idealized assumptions: high lithium price, constant demand, smooth production.
- Comparatively little public information on cost structure, technical details, energy and water requirements, etc.
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