Semiconductors 2026 The road to the 1 trillion dollar industry Part 1

We are entering the year 2026 and one thing is clear: anyone who still labels semiconductors as "cyclical" has missed the biggest structural change of our time.

After a massive growth spurt last year, the global chip industry is now on the verge of breaking the magic barrier of USD 1,000,000,000,000 (1 trillion) in annual sales. For comparison: that is almost a doubling within a few years.

Why 2026 is the "year of decision":

From training to inference: while everything in 2024/25 was dominated by training large AI models, 2026 is the year of inference. AI moves to the end devices (edge AI). This means that we don't just need Nvidia H100/B200 monsters in data centers, but efficient chips in every smartphone, car and toaster. 📱🚗
The 2nm milestone: TSMC and Samsung have fully ramped up mass production in the 2nm area (GAA technology). The efficiency benchmarks of the next five years will determine who is ahead here.
Memory is the new gold: memory chips (DRAM/NAND) are no longer a commodity. Thanks to HBM4 (High Bandwidth Memory), memory has become the bottleneck for AI - and thus the cash cow for players such as SK Hynix and Micron.

My view of the market:

The industry is growing up. We are seeing a decoupling from the classic PC and smartphone cycle. Semiconductors are the new infrastructure asset class.

My watchlist for the start of the series:

The Dominators: $NVDA (+0,16 %) (Nvidia), $AVGO (+3,86 %) (Broadcom)

The enablers: $ASML (+6,42 %) (ASML), $2330 (TSMC)

The comeback bet: $MU (+5,87 %) (Micron - because of the HBM4 supercycle)

💡 What do you think? Have we already seen the top in valuations, or is the "$1 trillion supercycle" just beginning? Let me know your opinion in the comments! 👇

#investing
#semiconductors
#tech2026
#stocks
#künstlicheintelligenz
#chips

Chris@Multibagger

I think it depends solely on whether the massive investments in this area start to pay off in profits for the investing companies in the near future, otherwise investments could be scaled back in future, which would lead to falling prices. In this respect, I probably see this year as the decisive one.

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SG@RundesBalli1

@Multibagger Even if the developers of the AI don't profit incredibly, then the wider market will. They will then be able to cut costs significantly, which will generally lead to higher profits. We will know in a few quarters.

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Gennaro@Genna

$QCOM seems to be completely forgotten in this story, of course Apple is making more and more of its own chips, but Qualcomm is just diversifying into the car and Internetofthings sector with its chips. There is so little attention on the share that I sometimes even forget that I own it.
I don't see Asml as overvalued yet, but the outlook for 2026 will be important to keep going up I think.

Middlfrangge@Middlfrangge

Two quotes that, in my view, get to the heart of the matter: "This time everything is different" and "No one has ever died from profit-taking". I am heavily invested myself, but have recently realized a portion.

Semiconductors 2026: The road to the 1 trillion dollar industry | Part 1