7H·

Bitcoin FOMO? Keep your cool...

Yes, the price has risen by (almost) 20% in 3 days... Does that mean the bear market is simply over? NO, not yet.

I (and especially my portfolio) am also happy about the first profits, but that doesn't mean much yet. So please don’t give in to FOMO—it’s better to wait a few more weeks...

Partial investments are okay, but never invest everything based on emotions just because you think you can make a quick buck...

To me, this looks more like a new local top before the final breakdown in this cycle occurs. Timing-wise, it doesn’t quite add up yet, and I don’t see the classic market pain... Plus, the overall market situation isn’t exactly favorable for “risk-on” plays (Bitcoin and the like)...

I expect at least the 45k USD mark by early to late October, depending on the situation.

If that doesn’t happen, I’ll change my plan.

$BTC (+5,92 %)

Quick edit:

I’ve noticed that on social media, many people—the so-called “masses”—are currently extremely bullish and believe the bottom has already been reached. I’m also seeing numerous memes—shared and liked en masse—where people are making fun of others who are speculating on prices below 60k or 50k. Interestingly, the masses think they’re not part of the masses and are convinced that the bear market is over. That’s pretty striking, because the average investor is (almost) never right. Bitcoin won’t keep rising this strongly forever.

Let’s see what the future holds!

20 Commentaires

jkb92@jkb92

I’m going to go out on a limb here and say that you’ll be waiting in vain for that $45k. This comment might not hold up over time, but I don’t think there will be any significant new lows. Definitely not below 50k. There will definitely be pullbacks, at least down to the breakout level.

That’s one thing I’ll never understand, even with stocks. When people (without any fundamental or technical basis) have picked out certain price levels and then just wait. If you’re fine with not being in the game at all, then that’s okay. It’s also clear that you shouldn’t be chasing the rally right now. But potentially missing the boat for a few percent—I don’t know.

In my opinion, Bitcoin doesn’t need a “risk-on” environment right now; rather, it’s back in the spotlight as an inflation-proof asset (think “digital gold”). BTC even rose when the war in Iran broke out. That wasn’t a “risk-on” environment either.

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Depotfuchs@DerDepotFuchs

Thanks for your insight. Basically, I agree with you... But BTC has had me under its spell for a few years now, and I’ve considered all sorts of perspectives...

In my opinion, the mathematical cycle still prevails with Bitcoin, NO MATTER what the narrative is. And I’m sticking to that this time as well, which is why I don’t yet consider the current breakout to be the end of the bear market.

I’m really curious to see where this pump leads. It’s truly remarkable.
Up to 45k USD, that’s a correction of about 40%. That’s quite a lot, but definitely not unrealistic for Bitcoin.

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jkb92@jkb92

@DerDepotFuchs It’s only natural that there are different views and expectations. BTC has formed a solid bottom in the short term and has broken out of it with a significant spike in volume. I wouldn’t rule out the possibility that it might test the previous lows again—or just below them. I think 45k is unrealistic. Do you have a specific reason for that number, or did you just pick it out of thin air?
I could just imagine that BTC’s underlying dynamics might soften as it gains broader market adoption, especially from institutional investors.
Here’s a thought experiment: Imagine you’re an institutional investor putting large sums into BTC. What’s better for you? Do you wait patiently until all the 4-year-cycle investors have jumped in so we all rally at the same time? Or do you surprise those investors and let them buy in driven by FOMO? I could be wrong, of course, but I don’t think it’s entirely implausible.

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D.S.@Crash-Propheteus

Are there any other prophets here who'd like to speak up? I'm coordinating the responses right now...........😂😂

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Raketentoni@Raketentoni

Now they’re coming out again when the price goes up 😬 If it’s down 10% tomorrow, things will quiet down again around BTC.
It’s the same everywhere. If you just add 1–2% of your portfolio to BTC, it doesn’t matter whether it’s 45k or 100k... How long have the BTC disciples been talking about “BTC to the Moon” at 250k or even 1 million? 🙃 I’m curious to see what happens when AI or quantum computers show for the first time that crypto isn’t secure. 🤷 So now you can tear me apart 😬

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Farqual@Farqual

@Raketentoni I want to believe in it; I think the idea behind $BTC is great.
That's why I'm invested and will stay invested—time will tell 💪🏾

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Raketentoni@Raketentoni

@Farqual I also have about 1% in both BTC and ETH. I always say, to each their own. I just would never put all my eggs in one basket—there are people here who are 100% in BTC 🤷

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Depotfuchs@DerDepotFuchs

When it comes to quantum computers, only one thought comes to mind: If these things really do become as powerful as we suspect, then Bitcoin is only part of our problem. Because if it cracks Bitcoin, EVERYTHING is at risk.

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Raketentoni@Raketentoni

@DerDepotFuchs I agree with you there, but you know how it is—there’s always a flip side to everything, and where there’s money, there are scammers.
I hope it doesn’t come to that, and as far as I’m concerned, Bitcoin can go up to 250K—luckily, no one knows what tomorrow will bring :) except for Saturday :P

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FinanzMechaNik@FinanzMechaNikk

The great thing is, when you're invested in a little bit of everything, you don't really care whether prices are going up or down 😁

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Raketentoni@Raketentoni

@FinanzMechaNikk That's how it looks!

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Depotfuchs@DerDepotFuchs

That's absolutely true! Diversification is the only "free lunch" in investing!

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FinanzMechaNik@FinanzMechaNikk

@DerDepotFuchs Above all, diversification—which is good for you personally. I was 100% crypto back in 2021—that 24/7 market really drove me crazy. Especially when Musk would tweet something 🤣—these days, nobody listens to what he says anymore, and Trump has taken the reins. Someone’s always stirring up trouble, as the saying goes 🔥🤪

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