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Point 3 would interest me since the rate November 22 was at 135. Question also why is the value falling even before interest was introduced. So in 2021....
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@Smudeo Quite simply: because expectations are traded in the market. TLT is likely to rise again some time before the next interest rate cut. The bond markets are the informed markets of major investors. There is much more capital there than in the equity markets. In short, stock markets are the playground for beginners; bond markets are for professionals.
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@Epi yes and no. In 2021, no one knew about the war and the stock markets were celebrating a high in orders, full books, no parts. No recessions in sight. So as long as the bond market (currently) doesn't turn, we're in the hole for another 6-12 months.