The Getquin community is a very informed community, but I don't want to miss the opportunity to comment on the opportunity I see in the Argentinian case where I am currently investing. Surely some of you have already listened to episode 116 of Techaktien where this topic was discussed.
From Europe it is a bit difficult to participate in the Argentine securities market, but there are some (few) opportunities via ADRs. There is an ETF, but it is not available in Europe.
Context
- PoliticalThe current government has won the mid-term elections and achieved a significant increase in the number of members of Congress. It is a libertarian government whose president wants to make Argentina the freest country in the world.
- MonetaryThe currency, the peso, currently floats freely between two bands (lower and upper). The bands are widened by 1% every month. Before the elections, the US Treasury pledged to defend the Argentine peso and keep it within the bands, and bought about 2,000 million USD of pesos (the explanation would be too long).
- FiscalThe Argentine government is committed to maintaining a fiscal surplus, i.e. a fiscal surplus including interest payments on debt. As Argentina does not yet have access to international markets, the US has pledged to inject capital if Argentina is unable to service its 2026 maturities.
Investment opportunities
If sovereign risk continues to decline, Argentina will eventually move from a marginal market to investment grade. In my opinion, this will be the next big jump in valuations.
In general, local and international analysts recommend investing in banks and energy sectors. The available options are the following: $YPF (+0 %) , $BBAR (-2,33 %) , $PAM (+0 %) , $BMA (-3,11 %) , $GGAL (-2,96 %) , $CEPU (+1,09 %) .
Personally, I have worked in $PAM (+0 %) , $YPF (+0 %) and $GGAL (-2,96 %) . I invested in some of them before the elections, which gave me about 50% profit.
I have to mention that $YPF has a pending lawsuit in the US regarding the ownership of the company, which in my opinion affects the valuation (higher risk).
