If you look at the current developments at Walmart $WMT (-2,31 %)it quickly becomes clear that the mood is anything but good. The share fell further on Friday and lost a lot of value in the gloomy overall market. It fell by over 6.5 percent on Thursday, followed by a further 2.8 percent on Friday - a clear sign of the tense situation.

The reason for the decline? According to the University of Michigan, the consumer climate in the USA has deteriorated more than expected. Concerns about rising inflation, particularly due to possible tariffs, are weighing on consumers. This could be alarming for Walmart as an important indicator of Americans' consumer sentiment.

Technical analysis shows that the stock has now fallen below the 50-day moving average, which could reinforce the downward trend. Despite a small gain of 4.5 percent since the beginning of the year, Walmart shares have already lost over 61.8 percent of their gains this year.

How do you assess the situation? Is this the right time to invest or should investors be more cautious? 👍

The Walmart share $WMT (-2,31 %) recently took a hit after the retailer issued a cautious forecast for the coming financial year. 😕 Despite its position as the world's largest retailer, executives seem to be worried about its future performance.

What do you think? Is this reticence a sign of foresight or rather an expression of uncertainty? Especially in a market characterized by price pressure and changing customer behavior, this could be a warning signal for investors.

Walmart is known for keeping a close eye on market conditions. But can the company's strategies survive in a rapidly changing environment? Let's discuss - how do you see the situation? Is it time to invest in Walmart or is it better to wait and see? 📉

$WMT (-2,31 %) Shares in the retailer Walmart slumped by almost 7% to 96.66 dollars in pre-market trading.

The company forecasts net sales growth of 3% to 4% for fiscal 2026, compared to estimates of 4%. Expects adjusted annual earnings per share between $2.50 and $2.60, compared to estimates of $2.76

WMT reports fourth-quarter U.S. comparable sales growth of 4.9%, beating analysts' estimates of a 4.15% increase, helped by a strong holiday shopping season

The share price rose by 72% in 2024

3 examples from my savings plan portfolio

Walmart
$WMT (-2,31 %)

A boring dividend aristocrat, solid figures and slight growth. Clearly outperformed the S&P 500 last year.

Sprouts Farmers
$SFM (-12,04 %)

Return of approx. 240% in one year. The figures and growth (approx. 10-15%) are decent, but the share price development is a bit insane compared to the growth 😂

Microsoft
$MSFT (-1,57 %)

A very good growth stock that belongs in every portfolio, sales and profits are increasing quarter by quarter, but Microsoft didn't stand a chance against the S&P 500 last year and has only gone sideways so far

Wayfair ($W) (-8,73 %) was a clear winner in e-commerce during the pandemic, but experienced a drastic crash afterwards. Now that the market has stabilized, investors are asking themselves: Is Wayfair ripe for a comeback or will the company remain under pressure?

Overview: What does Wayfair do?

Wayfair is one of the world's largest online retailers for furniture and home accessories. The company operates an asset-light model, which means that it does not produce its own furniture, but brokers products via a broad network of manufacturers and suppliers.

✅ Wayfair.com: Main platform for online furniture retail in the USA, Canada and Europe.

✅ Wayfair Professional: B2B platform for companies and interior designers.

✅ Perigold, AllModern, Birch Lane and Joss & Main: Other brands covering different design styles.

Wayfair relies heavily on data analysis and AIto understand buying behavior and optimize the supply chain.

Competition: Who are the competitors?

🔸 Amazon ($AMZN) (-2,39 %) & Walmart ($WMT) (-2,31 %) - Huge competition in online retail, which also offer furniture.

🔸 IKEA - The stationary furniture giant that is constantly expanding its online presence.

🔸 Home Depot ($HD) (-2,25 %) & Lowe's ($LOW) (-2,87 %) - Important competitors in the Home & Living segment.

🔸 Etsy ($ETSY) (-0,39 %) & smaller specialty retailers - Competition from individual furniture and decoration suppliers.

Wayfair has the advantage of being a pure online specialist specialist for furniture, but has to hold its own against financially strong rivals.

Opportunities: Why could Wayfair make a comeback?

✅ Efficiency gains: Wayfair has worked hard on its cost structure and reduced staff in recent quarters.

✅ Stabilization of demand: After the extreme boom in 2020-2021 and the decline in 2022-2023, the market could now normalize.

✅ Improved consumer climate: Falling inflation and potential interest rate cuts could boost purchasing power.

✅ Improved margins: The company has recently achieved higher gross margins, which indicates better cost control.

✅ Expansion of B2B business: Wayfair Professional continues to grow and could be a stable revenue generator in the long term.

Risks: What could continue to weigh on Wayfair? ⚠️

⚠️ High competitive pressure: Amazon, IKEA and Walmart are strong opponents with better supply chains.

⚠️ Dependence on macro factors: High interest rates and weak consumer sentiment could delay the recovery.

⚠️ Profitability remains fragile: Wayfair has made losses in the past and needs to show it can sustain profits.

⚠️ Logistics and storage costs: Despite efficiency gains, shipping bulky furniture remains a challenge.

⚠️ Customer loyalty: Unlike Apple or Tesla, customers have little loyalty to Wayfair - many simply compare prices with the competition.

Conclusion: turnaround opportunity or value trap?

Wayfair could be one of the most exciting turnaround candidates in 2025. The company has worked hard on its cost structure and could benefit from a recovery in consumer sentiment. However, competition remains intense and it is not yet certain whether Wayfair will become sustainably profitable.

What do you think? Does Wayfair have the potential for a strong recovery or will the share remain a shaky candidate? 🚀

I think half of the GQ community (including me) will probably be particularly interested in $NU (-11,11 %) but there are still other exciting companies like

$ANET (-3,99 %)
$CDNS (-4,03 %)
$SQ (-12,06 %)
$BKNG (-5,35 %)
$INOD (+3,73 %)
$MELI (-4,31 %)
$WMT (-2,31 %) who will present their figures 😬

THE BIG QUESTION NEXT WEEK IS STILL

UP📈 or DOWN📉 for $NU (-11,11 %) ?

The following shares reached a new 52-week high in the course of yesterday:

Meta $META (-1,11 %)

Netflix $NFLX (-1,73 %)

Costco $COST (+0,22 %)

Walmart $WMT (-2,31 %)

Crowdstrike $CRWD (-6,19 %) (forgot what happened in the summer)

Spotify $SPOT (-3,66 %)

Hims & Hers $HIMS (-26,15 %) (now the best stock YTD)

Duolingo $DUOL

Hilton $HLT (-2,82 %)

Interactive Brokers $IBKR (-2,25 %)

Moody's $MCO (-0 %)

Sharkninja $SN

Congratulations to all investors and Happy Weekend!

I have made changes to my stock portfolio, on the one hand after further analyzing my positions. I appreciate the feedback 🫶

❌ I have decided to sell:

$WMT (-2,31 %)
$ITX (-2,84 %) partially at 40%.

$AMZN (-2,39 %)
$BMW (-0,12 %) at 100%.

The main reasons are in the case of the first 2 (Inditex y Walmart) make up too large a part of my portfolio and I think there are better investments to make at this time, besides both are at or very close to their historical highs and after analyzing their fundamentals I have noticed that they are somewhat overvalued🔝.

(They are still part of my portfolio and in case of corrections I will always be able to repurchase)

In the case of Amazon after analyzing it has had a great growth but in numbers it seems too expensive 🫰

(I have preferred to ensure profits although I do not rule out a future purchase at a fairer price).

On the other hand BMW was not as good an idea as I had in my head at the beginning and after a 6% rise in a very short time I have decided to take it out of the way ⏱️

(I think there are much better investments out there and besides it is a sector in which I don't see good forecasts for the long term 🤔)

✅ On the other hand I have decided to buy:

$META (-1,11 %)
$DHER (-3,81 %)
$GOOGL (-2,28 %)

I personally believe that Meta is a company with a long way to go and despite being at historical highs its fundamentals are quite good compared to other companies of its size 👏👌.

As for Google after an 11% drop from highs I have seen it as a good opportunity to buy back at lower prices 🤑

Finally there is my bet with Delivery Hero which has not yet generated profits but is a company that I consider undervalued compared to what it could be worth in the future and is also a good company to diversify in European and emerging markets 🇪🇺🇨🇳