Final heat map of the S&P 500's performance from today
$AMZN (-1,7 %)
$HD (+3,24 %)
$CVX (+0,88 %)
$PFE (+1,18 %)
$UPS (+0,42 %)
$ACG1V (-0,54 %)
Postes
49Final heat map of the S&P 500's performance from today
$AMZN (-1,7 %)
$HD (+3,24 %)
$CVX (+0,88 %)
$PFE (+1,18 %)
$UPS (+0,42 %)
$ACG1V (-0,54 %)
Golden October is the time when the trees put on their golden dress. A dreamlike time that has something magical about it. I took full advantage of this nature by doing a lot of hiking, especially in Saxon Switzerland, which is where the cover picture of the review post on Instagram comes from. While I climbed the sandstone cliffs via the iron ladders, steps and fittings to then enjoy the view from the cliffs, my investments continued to diligently generate returns for me. Time for a look back.
I present the following points for the past month of October 2024:
➡️ SHARES
➡️ ETFS
➡️ DISTRIBUTIONS
➡️ CASHBACK
➡️ AFTER-PURCHASES
➡️ P2P CREDITS
➡️ CRYPTO
➡️ WHAT IS REALLY IMPORTANT
➡️ OUTLOOK
➡️ Shares
My largest single position in terms of volume $AVGO (+1,3 %) has only moved up a little compared to the previous month. But that's perfectly OK after the stock has performed well in the past. A look at the performance makes things more exciting. My $NFLX (+1,95 %) which stood at +98% from its acquisition price last month, has now jumped to +115%. I noticed in passing that the number of subscribers has probably continued to grow well, as have the other key figures. Very good, keep it up! The streaming service, which I was the last person to subscribe to before 2018, is developing extremely well. And also $SAP (+0,95 %) is growing steadily, can you still remember when the share price collapsed in 2020 after the forecasts had to be lowered? I have held on to the stock and am constantly buying more. One of my few German shares.
On the other side of the coin, it's stumbling a bit. The negative performances of my flops are increasing again, but that doesn't bother me because I $NKE (+3,29 %) , $DHR (+1,44 %) and $DHL (-0,87 %) also see them as successful in the future. Perhaps one or two of them still need to cut costs.
➡️ ETFs
My beloved core unit of retirement provision is growing and growing and steadily paying out more. The rock in the surf, the $VWRL (+0,87 %) already accounts for 13.95% of my entire securities portfolio. I can only say again and again: invest significant portions of your income each month in bread and butter ETFs via a fully automated savings plan, then poverty in old age will no longer be an issue in the future. Speaking of old age, at the beginning of November I read a post on Instagram from Finanztip that shocked and annoyed me. They actually advised people to pay into their state pension voluntarily. Was that just a faux pas, or did I just dream it? No, the contribution really exists. They stand for taking your own finances into your own hands and building up assets for old age or in general. For me, this means that this channel is losing its seriousness again, although they were one of the triggers for me to start building up assets after I finished my retraining.
I closed a position in another asset class and used it to buy two more dividend-paying ETFs in one of my old custody accounts. With this $GGRP (+0,8 %) I cover the missing first month of the quarter for income in this custody account and with the $JEGP (+0,81 %) I have added an ETF to my portfolio that pays out some dividends but also relies on option premiums. The distribution is monthly. I'm curious to see how this develops. This means that from now on all my custody accounts every month. every month. That's fun, because I want passive cash flow!
➡️ Dividends
I was able to collect 21 distributions on 9 payout days in October. I am grateful for this additional income stream.
In the meantime, I have published my extra article on how I deal with reinvestments. As the returns from all custody accounts from the past months of this year already exceed my planned reinvestment amount on average, I now see the opportunity to adjust the planned amount that I want to reinvest via a savings plan upwards. As announced, I am taking $UPS (+0,42 %) and $HTGC (-0,22 %) in the savings plans as early as December! These are certainly small amounts, but they are helping to make the snowball bigger and bigger.
➡️ Cashback
In October, I redeemed €17 in Payback points at Rewe, got points back and transferred the discount value on the shopping list to my clearing account to invest it immediately via a one-off savings plan. This is in addition to the "You should at least have all the bread-and-butter ETFs!"the second piece of wisdom I preach all the time. If you get a discount, voucher or other benefit somewhere when shopping or ordering online, then invest it, whether directly via payout or indirectly (as I do). In this way, retailers and others help to finance your wealth accumulation and you protect yourself from what it is actually intended for, namely consuming more than necessary.
A statement by Youtuber Balthasar Becker also fits in with this: "I didn't make the rules, I just interpret them in a way that suits me". Or in my words: "I cleverly use the advantage that others give me to lure me in, but in my favor and not theirs."
Always remember, dear readers, even in a tight corset you have a margin in which you can move freely. And you should always use the leeway in your favor. So, enough of the sermon.
Payback was joined by a new payout from the health insurance bonus program. Another €22, which I simply get from my morning sports program and cold training. More about the cold at the end.
➡️ Subsequent purchases
I bought small amounts of ETFs from the above-mentioned inflows from Payback and premium refunds from the KK.
I took a mid three-digit amount from another source and used it to buy two new ETFs for an old portfolio, as already mentioned under "ETFs".
➡️ P2P loans
I'm fed up with this asset class. The constant rounding differences annoy me, as do the defaults. I started trading on October 31st. On the one hand, I deleted the account with EstateGuru despite the last defaulted loan of €50. Consequently, €50 was written off. Bondora Go and Grow also had to go. This is where the mid three-digit amount mentioned above came from, which went into the ETFs for the old custody account.
Peerberry and Mintos cannot yet be canceled. Apparently it is not possible to simply accept the losses by closing the account.
➡️ Crypto
There was still nothing for me to do in October. But now, as I write this article, the US election is already through and $BTC (+0,93 %) jumps to new ATHs. I am slowly becoming more attentive again. My strategy is well known, I play the crypto cycles. I want to sell all altcoins as soon as the prices I want are reached, and I may accept losses on one coin ($LTC (+2,04 %) ). According to my original plan, I also wanted to sell all the Bitcoin, but I'm now thinking about keeping some of them. In future, I want to reaccumulate Bitcoin in the next bear market in order to play the cycle again. However, I have only invested very small amounts in crypto, which are negligible; for me, crypto remains a zero-sum game. Perhaps it looks completely different for someone who lives in Africa, for example, and doesn't have a bank account.
➡️ What is really important
The long-term wealth accumulation of each and every one of us is certainly automated thanks to savings plans and standing orders. This is precisely why it is important to focus on the important things in life. It's just too short and the end is sure to come.
At the beginning of the month, I returned from my trip to Berlin, which I mentioned in my last review. It was a complete success, it was important for me to convey to the child that you have to leave your comfort zone in order to realize the dreams you have. It takes effort, but it pays off. Only those who leave their comfort zone will surpass themselves. And of course we also had a great time together.
I'm also getting used to the cold. From taking cold showers and preparing for ice baths to running in the cold. My landlord issues me with hot water and heating consumption information at the beginning of each month. I have noticed that my hot water consumption (since I started taking cold showers) has more than halved. That's great! I'm curious to see how much further it will fall. As well as taking cold showers, I'm currently preparing for ice swimming on Fridays after work, which is my current area where I leave my comfort zone. So I actually go swimming at one of the open-cast mining lakes around Leipzig. It takes a few minutes before I have to get out again quickly. It tends to be around 4-5 minutes. Both activities hardly cost me any effort. They even give me a boost of energy. And with the current temperatures, I also go running several times a week in the evening and regularly go hiking. So I also demand a lot from my body and have noticed how it has become much more efficient in recent years since losing a lot of weight in 2020.
➡️ Outlook
It is now the beginning of November and the Trump wave has flooded our portfolios. I hope that there will be no further major sell-off. I am also awaiting my utility bill for the current year. Hopefully there will be a credit again. Because this should be invested.
Links:
Social media links can be found in my profile, you can also check out the Instagram version of my review.
Hello everyone,
today there is a long announced #offtopic from me.
It's about the question of what the planned reinvestment of my distributions is that I mentioned (especially in the reviews).
I want passive cash flow! I want the money to rain down from the sky, fully automated! And this money should also find its way back to the stock market fully automatically. Simply to keep feeding the passive income stream so that it gets bigger and stronger. This should work until one day I use the distributions to cover my living costs.
But how do I go about it?
In order to know how much I can reinvest each month at best, I first need to record all my incoming distributions, from which I can then calculate an average value for all monthly distributions per month. I compare this value with the previous year's values. This comparison enables me to obtain the increase in my income and thus estimate it for the new calendar year. The monthly return figure estimated here for the following calendar year is my planned reinvestment figure.
As I said before, I want to set up a fully automated system with the reinvestment that runs by itself. This also means that manual intervention on my part should not be necessary, although there may be exceptions.
So the question is: when do I actually have to intervene in the automated reinvestment of my distributions myself? Of course, this is only the case if the actual distributions received from my investments in a month are lower than the planned amount of my reinvestment. And for this scenario, I have two aces up my sleeve to avoid having to intervene after all. On the one hand, I leave distributions from particularly high-yield months for the weaker months so that the process can continue. If these reserves are not sufficient, I have a second ace up my sleeve. My current employer gives me half of the Germany ticket tax-free. I haven't included this bonus in my personal budget planning. This means that the money is not intended to cover expenses. So if there isn't enough available for the planned reinvestment, I'll use this allowance for that. And in the event that the allowance cannot be used, it goes into a provision for reinvestment.
The system I use is not complicated and has fortunately already proven itself in practice. Looking back on the first three quarters of 2024, my distributions were always large enough for everything to work fully automatically, except in January and February. For the two months affected, I was able to keep the engine running thanks to the provision. It's running like clockwork. Things are also looking good for October. So not only is the system running, I could even have planned more optimistically.
The follow-up question is certainly: how do I use my reinvestments, or more precisely: what do I invest my distributions in? There are two strategies that I pursue. On the one hand, I use the distributions to strengthen the savings plans from the net salary of my smaller-volume positions so that the positions can build up more quickly. On the other hand, I use some of the reinvestments to finance entire savings plans that I don't have to use my net salary for. This is the case for me, for example, with oil stocks such as $XOM (+2,11 %) and $CVX (+0,88 %) but also with others such as $DLR (+1,47 %) and $GSK is the case.
Conclusion: The system works as described and is simple. I only have to check a few days before executing the savings plans to see whether the clearing accounts are sufficiently filled. I can even increase the size of the planned reinvestments for the following year, which makes me very happy. $UPS (+0,42 %) and $HTGC (-0,22 %) will be included in the savings plans, starting this December. The snowball of passive income is thus getting bigger and bigger, making me increasingly free from active earned income. That makes me happy! I couldn't have imagined something like this at the zero hour of my wealth accumulation.
Week in review 26.10.
New 52-week highs or all-time highs: Gold, Silver, Booz Allen Hamilton, Boyd Gaming, Carvana, Endeavour Silver, GE Vernova, Iron Mountain, L3Harris, Philip Morris, Reddit, SAP, Sea Ltd, Teledyne Netflix, Nvidia, Microstrategy, Palantir PayPal, SoFi, Wells Fargo, Welltower, Wyndham Hotels & Resorts
Palantir (+170%) points to 2024 Vistra (+231%) and Nvidia (+202%) the third-best performer in the S&P 500
Tesla +20% after good quarterly figures, best trading day in 11 years, cheaper new model coming in H1/2025, +9% since the beginning of the year
New Apple MacBooks with M4, Mac mini and iMac will be presented next Monday, Apple shares +26% since the beginning of the year
McDonald's E.coli - bacteria in burger meat, one dead and several injured, shares fall 8%, +1% since the beginning of the year
SAP with good quarterly figures, +61% since the beginning of the year
Deutsche Bank with good quarterly figures, +26% since the beginning of the year
Mercedes with poor quarterly figures due to weak business in China, -9% since the beginning of the year
Microsoft-shareholders want to vote on Bitcoin purchase for the balance sheet at the Annual General Meeting in December, Bitcoin +59% since the beginning of the year
Qualcomm and ARM are in a license dispute over the Nuvia takeover, ARM +112% since the beginning of the year, Qualcomm +23% since the beginning of the year
Lockheed Martin with good quarterly figures, +24% since the beginning of the year
L3Harris with good quarterly figures, +24% since the beginning of the year
RTX (Raytheon) with good quarterly figures, sales and profit forecasts raised, +48% since the beginning of the year
UPS with good quarterly figures, -9% since the beginning of the year
Texas Instruments with good quarterly figures, +25% since the beginning of the year
Coca Cola with good quarterly figures, +15% since the beginning of the year
IBM with strong profit growth but disappointed sales, +36% since the beginning of the year
Munich RE Profit warning due to major losses, +24% since the beginning of the year
Starbucks has suspended its forecast for the coming financial year as new CEO Brian Niccol seeks to restructure the company but increases dividend, +5% year-to-date
Kering with profit warning as Gucci weakens in China, -40% since the beginning of the year
Enphase Energy with poor figures, share falls -12%, -37% since the beginning of the year
Traffic light government decides exit tax on ETF assets from €500,000, savings and independent investing are penalized even more, prosperity and freedom are made more difficult and hindered
Loopholes in the rent control for furnished apartments remain
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$TSLA (+0,05 %)
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$ARM (+0,48 %)
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$MSTR (-12,57 %)
$RTX (+1,87 %)
$LMT (+2,15 %)
$LHX (+1,6 %)
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$E2NP34
#steuern
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25.10.2024
Lilium subsidiaries have to file for insolvency + Shop Apotheke and DocMorris pick up + US parcel service UPS earns more than expected + Bilfinger shares under pressure after tragedy in the USA
After the end of state support, Lilium announces Lilium $LILM (-12,77 %) announces that its most important subsidiaries will file for bankruptcy. The air cab developer's share price then plummets by more than 58 percent.....
On Thursday, market observers pointed to positive signals in a court case involving mail-order pharmacies in the landmark proceedings over price discounts on prescription drugs. The shares of Redcare Pharmacy $RDC (-3,11 %) extended their gains by up to five percent and were still up by almost four percent in the afternoon. The competitor DocMorris $DOCM (-6,59 %)which at times extended its gains in Zurich to more than ten percent. DocMorris shares thus recovered strongly from the most recent low since June 2023. Redcare shares continued their recent rally. They have gained almost 30 percent since mid-September. However, they once again encountered resistance at the EUR 150 mark. Analyst Thomas Rothäusler from Jefferies pointed out that an attorney general had issued a final opinion in proceedings in which DocMorris is taking on the North Rhine Chamber of Pharmacists. This opinion was very clearly in favor of bonuses on prescription drugs. According to Rothäusler, the final result is likely to have a significant impact on the future growth of online pharmacies. According to the expert, the final ruling of the European Court of Justice is expected in the next two to three months.
The US parcel service UPS $UPS (+0,42 %) earned a surprisingly high profit in the third quarter thanks to good business and the sale of a subsidiary. The bottom line was a profit of a good 1.5 billion US dollars (1.4 billion euros), around 37 percent more than a year earlier, as United Parcel Service (UPS) announced in Atlanta on Thursday. Even without the special effect, this was more than analysts had expected on average. For the year as a whole, however, CEO Carol Tomé is now expecting lower turnover because the sold subsidiary Coyote Logistics is no longer included in the figures. According to Tomé, the Group's turnover is only expected to reach around 91.1 billion dollars in 2024. She had previously forecast 93 billion. However, before special effects, a larger share of turnover is expected to remain as operating profit at UPS. The manager is therefore expecting an adjusted operating margin of around 9.6 percent. Previously, she had assumed 9.4 percent. In the third quarter, UPS reported a turnover of 22.2 billion dollars, 5.6 percent more than a year earlier. This was about as much as analysts had expected on average.
The collapse of a ferry dock in the USA caused the shares of Bilfinger $GBF (+0,45 %) shares on Thursday. The share price fell by 6.8 percent to 46.25 euros. If this remains the case, it would be the biggest daily loss in almost two years. In a letter of condolence, Group CEO Thomas Schulz and the head of the US subsidiary Centennial Contractors Enterprises, Geoff Preisman, expressed their deepest sympathy to the families of seven people who reportedly lost their lives in the collapse of a ferry dock on October 19. The accident occurred on the island of Sapelo off the coast of the US state of Georgia. Centennial acted as the general contractor for the construction of the dock and pier in question, the statement continued. The company worked with local subcontractors and suppliers to complete the project in November 2021. Should Centennial, as the general contractor, have to assume liability for the accident, a payment of an estimated 50 to 100 million euros is imminent, said a stock market analyst. This scenario is weighing on the Bilfinger share price.
Friday: Stock market dates, economic data, quarterly figures
ex-dividend of individual stocks
Fastenal USD 0.39
Quarterly figures / company dates USA / Asia
13:00 Colgate-Palmolive Quarterly figures
Quarterly figures / company dates Europe
06:30 Sika quarterly figures | Holcim | SGS Trading Update 3Q
07:00 Mercedes-Benz | Stratec | Signify quarterly figures | Safran sales 3Q
07:30 Sanofi quarterly figures | Remy Cointreau Q2 sales
07:45 Eni quarterly figures
08:00 Yara quarterly figures | Mercedes-Benz analyst conference
09:00 Holcim analyst and press conference
09:15 Mercedes-Benz PK
14:00 Sanofi Analyst Conference
17:30 Porsche AG quarterly figures and press conference
Economic data
01:30 JP: Consumer prices Greater Tokyo October core rate (ex food)
FORECAST: +1.7% yoy previously: +2.0% yoy
08:45 FR: Consumer Confidence October FORECAST: 95 previous: 95
10:00 DE: ifo Business Climate Index October PROGNOSE: 85.6 PREVIOUS: 85.4 Situation assessment PROGNOSE: 84.3 PREVIOUS: 84.4 Business expectations
PROGNOSE: 87.0 PREVIOUS: 86.3
10:00 EU: ECB - October consumer survey results | Publication of consumer survey results | ECB, M3 money supply and lending September M3 money supply FORECAST: +3.0% yoy previously: +2.9% yoy
14:30 US: New orders for durable goods September
PROGNOSE: -1.0% yoy previous: 0.0% yoy
16:00 US: Consumer Sentiment Index Uni Michigan (2nd survey) October
FORECAST: 69.0 1st survey: 68.9 previous: 70.1
$UPS (+0,42 %) | Q3'24 Earnings Highlights:
🔹 Adj EPS: $1.76 (Est. $1.63) 🟢; UP +12.1% YoY
🔹 Revenue: $22.2B (Est. $22.14B) 🟢; UP +5.6% YoY
🔹 Non-GAAP Operating Margin: 8.9%
Cuts FY24 Guidance:
🔸 Revenue: ~$91.1B (Prior: $93B; Est. $91.85B) 😕
🔸 Non-GAAP Operating Margin: Expected to reach 9.6%
Segment Performance:
U.S. Domestic Segment:
🔹 Revenue: $14.45B; UP +5.8% YoY
🔹 Operating Profit: $898M (Adj. $974M); UP from $571M in Q3'23
🔹 Operating Margin: 6.2%; Non-GAAP Adjusted Operating Margin: 6.7%
🔸 Growth driven by a 6.5% increase in average daily volume
International Segment:
🔹 Revenue: $4.41B; UP +3.4% YoY
🔹 Operating Profit: $798M (Adj. $792M); UP from $630M in Q3'23
🔹 Operating Margin: 18.1%; Non-GAAP Adjusted Operating Margin: 18.0%
🔸 Growth primarily due to a 2.5% increase in revenue per piece
Supply Chain Solutions:
🔹 Revenue: $3.38B; UP +8.0% YoY
🔹 Operating Profit: $289M (Adj. $217M); UP from $142M in Q3'23
🔹 Operating Margin: 8.5%; Non-GAAP Adjusted Operating Margin: 6.4%
🔸 Growth fueled by air and ocean forwarding, plus continued onboarding of USPS air cargo
Business and Strategic Updates:
🔸 Disposition of Coyote Logistics: Completed in Q3'24; Adjustments made to revenue and margin targets accordingly
🔸 Capex: Expected to be $4.0B in FY24
🔸 Dividend Payments: Forecast at $5.4B, pending Board approval
CEO Carol Tomé's Commentary:
🔸 "After a challenging 18-month period, UPS has returned to revenue and profit growth. With peak season around the corner, we are prepared to deliver a successful holiday season and continue building on the progress made this quarter."
The trees are putting on their golden-yellow dress, it's getting rainy again and the temperatures are dropping. The golden fall is just around the corner. I take advantage of the cold by only taking cold showers and prepare myself for winter ice bathing. Over the next few days, I'll be swimming in cold water, avoiding hot showers like the plague. Meanwhile, the depot is running. Time for a look back.
I present the following points for the past month of September 2024:
➡️ SHARES
➡️ ETFS
➡️ DISTRIBUTIONS
➡️ CASHBACK
➡️ AFTER-PURCHASES
➡️ P2P CREDITS
➡️ CRYPTO
➡️ WHAT IS REALLY IMPORTANT
➡️ OUTLOOK
➡️ Shares
After the top of the class $AVGO (+1,3 %) has deflated, it is now shifting up a few gears again. The +121% performance of $AVGO (+1,3 %) increased to +178% last month. There is still some way to go to +200%, but perhaps I will soon have the first trebler in my portfolio. That puts me in a good mood! The heavyweight, which also accounts for the largest volume among the individual stocks in my share portfolio, is attracting other heavyweights such as $WMT (+2,04 %) and $NFLX (+1,95 %) behind it. The last few months have also seen $SAP (+0,95 %) steadily risen in my portfolio and has now already reached 4th place, accompanied by $AAPL (+0,52 %) . The former leader $NOVO B (-2,54 %) continues to fall but is still performing well. There are also other stocks that are fighting their way up that I did not expect at the time. For example one $ABBV (+2,98 %) or $BAC (+1,49 %) .
If I look at the performance, I am also spoiled with great results behind the winner. $NFLX (+1,95 %) shines with +98%, $NOVO B (-2,54 %) with +74% and $SAP (+0,95 %) with +72%. When I added the stocks to my portfolio, I would never have imagined that there would be any stocks in my gold box that could double. I'll probably have several of them next year.
And I'm not worried about the basement floor either, as the negative performances are constantly moving towards zero. Step by step. There was also a change in the order at the lower end due to additional purchases. My smallest positions by volume are now $CP (+2,87 %) , $DHL (-0,87 %) and $OR (+1,38 %) in terms of performance they remain $NKE (+3,29 %) , $DHR (+1,44 %) and $CVX (+0,88 %) o.
➡️ ETFs
My beloved core retirement savings unit is growing and growing. The biggest chunk, the $VWRL (+0,87 %) already accounts for 13.4% of my entire securities portfolio. All I can say here is: stubbornly and steadily save a portion of your net salary every month in the boring bread-and-butter ETFs by standing order and savings plans, then you can successfully escape the monster of old-age poverty. In my opinion, everyone should do this. I'm a fan of distributions because they provide a steady additional income. And by saving continuously, this income increases. I also promote this in my private circle. I think it's a shame that so many people respond to my efforts to raise awareness with "Yes, but ...". By constantly hiding behind excuses that are always the same, people are driving themselves into poverty in old age. Even worse are those who think shares (or securities in general) are the devil's plaything and moan about pensions. On the one hand, they don't understand how the pay-as-you-go system really works, and on the other, they completely lack basic financial education. They think they are throwing money into a certain pot from which they can later withdraw. Interestingly, this is only the case with their own portfolio, not with the state pension.
In addition to broadly diversified standard ETFs, I like to put unplanned inflows into dividend ETFs. I want cash flow that will one day cover my living expenses.
➡️ Dividends
I received 33 distributions on 14 payout days in September. I am grateful for this additional income stream.
Unfortunately, I didn't manage to write the extra article I announced in my last post about how I deal with reinvestments last month. This is planned for this month. My plans $UPS (+0,42 %) and $HTGC (-0,22 %) into the savings plans remains in place. I already teased this in the last review.
➡️ Cashback
In September, I received a €40 voucher for scanning my daily purchases, which I used to buy overhead headphones that had been on my watchlist for a while. In line with my cashback procedure, I deducted the equivalent value of the voucher in euros from the corresponding provision and transferred it to the exchange. In this way, I use the benefit of the voucher as productive capital instead of just consuming more like others. My budgets for wear and tear and provisions are thus adhered to and the benefit indirectly finances my asset accumulation.
➡️ Subsequent purchases
Thanks to a small bonus, reimbursements from health insurance and supplementary dental insurance and the aforementioned voucher, I was able to make several additional purchases last month. These include the additional purchase of 2 $UPS (+0,42 %) and 6 $HTGC (-0,22 %) shares as individual additional purchases. I am convinced by both companies. I also invested €27 in the one-off savings plans $SPYD (+1,39 %) , €49 in the $TDIV (+0,59 %) and €44 in the $FGEQ (+0,47 %) invested. Simply to increase the cash flow from the investments. Bit by bit, the tap is being turned on further and further.
➡️ P2P loans
Over a long period of time, I have managed to reduce the amount of defaulted loans on my remaining platforms to a double or single-digit sum. All the rest has been withdrawn. Of course, no progress has been made with interest or redemption payments. I wish the operators would simply write off the rest without replacement so that I could ditch all the platforms. Bondora Go & Grow is an exception to this rule. This is running smoothly, but I'm not putting any new funds into it, I'm just letting it run.
➡️ Crypto
I'm not currently doing anything here. I advise everyone to study the debt cycle and the crypto cycle in order to understand price movements in the long term.
➡️ What is really important
I was on vacation at the end of the month into October, so I spent time with my ex's kids, whose social father I was allowed to be one. First I spent several days with the kids and my ex. I went out in the evenings with the older teenage girl, mainly to give her the attention she was looking for so that she could be the focus of attention herself. In October, we spontaneously went to the capital for a few days at the child's request. This kind of time together with all the experiences helps to strengthen and rebuild the bond, which has of course suffered in recent years, for example due to physical separation. There have been so many great moments over the years, both in the province and in the big city. Enjoying the peace and quiet in the evenings with a great view, listening to what moves her and then the trip to the metropolis with its light and dark sides. And so much more.
Why am I writing this? Because it's moments like these that make life worth living and give us strength in dark times. This is even more valuable than our beloved topics of finance and investment.
➡️ Outlook
The year-end spurt begins very soon. I am hoping for price magic like last year. But the crypto cycle will be even more exciting, as we expect prices to skyrocket at the turn of the year.
Left:
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Threads: https://www.threads.net/@frugalfreisein
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UPS Value Investing Analysis
1. Company Overview & Competitive Position:
UPS is one of the largest logistics and package delivery companies in the world, with operations in
over 200 countries. It holds a dominant market share in the U.S. (64% of revenue) and a significant
presence globally. UPS benefits from a strong economic moat due to its vast global network,
substantial scale, and continued investments in premium markets like healthcare logistics. These
attributes create a competitive advantage, making it difficult for new entrants to challenge its
position.
2. Operational Efficiency & Financial Metrics:
- ROIC: 10.23%, exceeding its WACC of 8.87%. This suggests UPS generates returns above its
cost of capital, which is crucial for long-term value creation.
- CapEx to Cash Flow Ratio: Historically below 50%, showing disciplined capital spending relative to
cash flow.
- Debt-to-Equity Ratio: 1.55, indicating moderate leverage but a strong ability to service debt,
supported by an Interest Coverage Ratio of 9.07.
3. Valuation Metrics:
- P/E Ratio: 21.72, reflecting a fair valuation relative to its earnings.
- PEG Ratio: 1.98, which suggests slight overvaluation when factoring in growth projections.
- P/B Ratio: 6.69, indicating UPS trades at a significant premium to its book value.
- Free Cash Flow Yield: 4.08%, signaling a solid capacity to generate cash.
4. Growth Potential:
- Dividend Yield: 4.90% with a 5-year dividend growth rate (CAGR) of 13%. The Chowder Number of
17.90% suggests strong dividend growth, making UPS an appealing option for income-focusedinvestors.
outlook.
- EPS Growth: Projected to grow by 19.38% over the coming year, indicating a healthy earnings
5. Industry & Market Trends:
The logistics and transportation sector is highly competitive and cyclical. UPS faces increasing
competition from e-commerce and tech-driven logistics companies like Amazon. However, UPS's
strategic investments in healthcare logistics and technological advancements offer potential growth
avenues.
6. Risk Factors:
- Company-Specific Risks: UPS has exposure to labor-related issues (e.g., strikes), and while it
maintains solid employee relations, labor negotiations remain a potential risk. Its heavy reliance on
fuel leaves it vulnerable to fuel price fluctuations.
- Market Risks: UPS is cyclical and sensitive to economic downturns that reduce shipping volumes.
However, its diversification into supply chain solutions and healthcare logistics offers some
insulation.
- Geopolitical and Regulatory Risks: The company's global footprint makes it subject to international
regulations and geopolitical tensions, which could impact operations.
7. Technological Capabilities:
UPS has embraced automation and data analytics to improve efficiency. Continued investment in
technology, such as route optimization and logistics tracking, helps maintain its competitive edge.
8. Corporate Governance and ESG:
UPS has committed to ambitious ESG goals, including achieving carbon neutrality by 2050 and
reducing CO2 emissions by 50% per package by 2035. This positions the company favorably in theeyes of ESG-conscious investors.
9. Strategic Partnerships:
UPS has forged strategic partnerships in key growth sectors, including healthcare logistics. While it
continues to benefit from its relationship with Amazon, competition with Amazon's in-house logistics
network could become a future risk.
10. Cyclicality & Economic Sensitivity:
UPS's performance is influenced by global economic cycles. During economic slowdowns, shipping
volumes typically decline, affecting revenue. However, UPS has diversified its revenue streams
through investments in higher-margin areas like healthcare.
Conclusion: Intrinsic Value & Margin of Safety
Based on a DCF analysis using a WACC of 8.87% and a conservative long-term growth rate of
2.5%, UPS's intrinsic value is estimated at $150 - $160 per share, slightly above its current price of
around $133. This suggests that UPS is undervalued, with potential upside.
Final Investment Recommendation:
UPS scores well in key areas such as operational efficiency, dividend growth, and financial stability,
making it an attractive long-term investment for value investors. However, potential risks include
increased competition, labor issues, and economic sensitivity. Given the intrinsic value and current
price, UPS appears to offer a safe margin of entry for investors with a long-term horizon.
Summer has bid farewell with fantastic weather. I made the most of the hot days last month to swim after work or at the weekend. While I worked steadily on my fitness for crawling and diving, my investments continued to work hard for me and brought me the fourth highest monthly dividend of the year, just behind the previous month. A very good performance for a month that is known for less passive cash flow. Time for a look back.
I present the following points for the past month of August 2024:
➡️ SHARES
➡️ ETFS
➡️ DISTRIBUTIONS
➡️ CASHBACK
➡️ AFTER-PURCHASES
➡️ P2P CREDITS
➡️ CRYPTO
➡️ COST REDUCTION AND EVEN MORE INTEREST
➡️ OUTLOOK
➡️ Shares
My class leader$AVGO continues to let out some air. Perhaps this is because I am constantly increasing my weighted buy-in through the savings plan. So the $AVGO only +121% in the books. The heavyweight is accompanied in the portfolio volume by $WMT and $NFLX (+1,95 %) accompanied.$NOVO B (-2,54 %) The stock dropped a few ranks, but $SAP (+0,95 %) and $ABBV (+2,98 %) in front of the podium. The depot breathes like a living organism. This can be seen from the fact that$NFLX (+1,95 %) i with a performance of +88% and $NOVO B (-2,54 %) with a slight gain of just under +101%.
Due to a lack of significant changes, I am leaving out my smallest positions this time. Only the minus is steadily going back to zero and thus becoming "smaller".
➡️ ETFs
Compared to other techniques, breaststroke requires less effort and you can cover long distances without having to stop. It is similar with my beloved ETFs. We need to invest very little attention in the broadly diversified bread and butter ETFs (and decent dividend ETFs) to get an average (but still good!) output. That's why I keep preaching about this tool. It's simply something everyone should have in order to build wealth. It's so easy to make provisions, for example, as I did with a $VWRL (+0,87 %) . The largest position in my portfolio accounted for 13.1% of the total portfolio and is self-regulating in terms of its composition. This means that the vehicle does not require any real maintenance. Simply save stubbornly and steadily every month and then pursue other enjoyable activities that fulfill life. For example, swimming, running or hiking.
➡️ Distributions
I received 20 distributions on 11 payout days in August. I am grateful for this additional income stream.
As mentioned in the last update, I have taken a closer look at the development of the dividend and decided to increase the size of my reinvestments from dividends. $UPS (+0,42 %) and $HTGC (-0,22 %) will be included in the savings plans, probably from this December. This is also an indication that the monthly income stream is growing reliably. I only want to look at the coming weaker months of October and November in order to be able to calculate fully and reliably for the coming year. After all, I want the system to be completely self-sustaining. I will publish a separate article in September on how my reinvestment works and how the Deutschlandticket and my employer are connected to it.
➡️ Cashback
I received additional cashback again in August. First, I redeemed €4 in Payback points at REWE's delivery service and, as always, transferred the equivalent amount from my grocery account to my settlement account. I also had €10 paid out from Shoop, as I finally exceeded the minimum threshold again. Lastly, I received a €25 voucher for MediaMarkt for scanning my purchases, which I used for household goods. I transferred the equivalent value from the corresponding provision for household goods to a clearing account. The investment will only be made in September, as two more refunds were still outstanding. By the time you read this, the cashback has of course already been reinvested. It's great when others also help to build up my retirement provision/assets and increase my passive income.
➡️ Subsequent purchases
Many of you saw this great buying opportunity in the first days of August, even if the background was of a sad nature. I would like to congratulate you on your snap-up, as I was unable to add to my position due to a lack of cash at the time.
Only a dividend not reinvested in July, which was still in a clearing account, found its way into the stock market with the subsequent purchase of a small $FGEQ (+0,47 %) on the stock exchange.
➡️ P2P loans
Nothing new in the West back then, nothing new in my defaulted and recovering P2P loans, they say today.
I wish for the day when I finally get rid of this asset class, my forecast is up to 4 years.
➡️ Crypto
I am simply not doing anything here at the moment. I'm also not buying any more in order to be out of the holding period with all coins at the planned sale at the turn of the year. The only exception will be Solana. What I am investing the proceeds in is roughly known, as is my subsequent procedure for rebuilding my holdings. I advise everyone to familiarize themselves with the debt cycle and the crypto cycle in order to understand price movements in the long term.
➡️ Cost reduction and even more interest
One of my banks (N26) announced last month that it was cutting its interest rate. The reduction is so drastic that the payment model was no longer justifiable for me.
So I decided to give notice to this bank, where I had my provisions and my food account in Pockets, and look for a replacement. From a video test by a small but very friendly financial youtuber from my area, I took a look at C24 Bank, found it to be good and set up my account infrastructure for the bank account I no longer had there in just a few minutes. I would never have imagined that it would be so easy to change my bank account. This reduces the costs of my account structure to €0 and even more sub-accounts will earn interest in future.
➡️ Outlook
As things stand, there will most likely be a half-year bonus after all. As I already want to put cash aside for future expenses, I can only use the bonus to buy one additional share. $UPS (+0,42 %) buy one more share.
At the start of the year, I have set myself the goal of investing at least €15,000, and if I manage that, then €16,000 up to €16,500. I'll have the €15,000 for sure, but I won't reach the upper target. But that's not a bad thing, I always set myself higher goals. Let's see where I end up.
Left:
Instagram post about the review:
https://www.instagram.com/p/C_1DA5RNGXE/
X Profile: https://x.com/frugalfreisein
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