Reading time: approx. 6 minutes
Our community thrives on ideas about stocks outside the mainstream - stocks that are not yet in every portfolio but have enormous structural potential. As part of the previously presented 10B model, which specifically looks for companies with real potential for a tenfold increase, today we are focusing on a candidate that is making the energy transition technically possible in the first place. $FLNC (+19,24 %) (Fluence Energy) operates at the interface between hardware and software - a "shovel manufacturer" in the best sense of the word, providing the infrastructure for a stable power grid in the age of renewable energies. The company manufactures power plant-sized battery storage systems and provides the software to control energy flows in real time. The key question: will it succeed in taking the step from a beacon of hope to a profitable energy technology group?
$FLNC (+19,24 %) was founded in 2018 as a joint venture between $SIE (+1,13 %) (Siemens AG) and $AES (+2,7 %) (AES Corporation) and is now one of the leading providers of large-scale storage solutions. The order backlog is just under five billion US dollars - a strong indicator of structural growth. In recent quarters, Fluence has won several major orders in the USA, Australia and Europe. Nevertheless, the share remains under pressure: the price (currently EUR 13.80) has fluctuated between EUR 3 and EUR 19 in the last 12 months, while market capitalization currently stands at around EUR 2.5 billion. Growth is there, but profitability is still the open flank.
My valuation follows the structured 10B model with five core blocks of 20 points each - an approach that systematically weighs up opportunities, risks and scalability.
- Growth & business model (15/20)
In the third quarter of 2025 $FLNC (+19,24 %) sales of USD 602.5 million - an increase of 24.7% compared to the previous year. The order backlog stands at around five billion US dollars, with new contracts worth over one billion in the summer alone. The business model combines hardware projects with software revenue via Fluence IQ, which generates recurring revenue but has so far only accounted for a small proportion of overall business. Growth is dynamic, scalability is a given - but operational stability has not yet been achieved.
- Market & Moat (13/20)
The global market for energy storage systems is expected to grow to over 200 billion US dollars by 2030. $FLNC acts as a link between battery manufacturers and grid operators and benefits in the USA from the "domestic content" requirements of the Inflation Reduction Act. However, competition remains fierce. $TSLA (-3,27 %) (Tesla Inc.) dominates with vertical integration, $STEM (+14,04 %) (Stem Inc.) is struggling with high losses, $6240 (Sungrow Power Supply Co.) exploits economies of scale in Asia. Fluence is in between - big enough to supply globally, but still too small to set prices. There is a certain technological lead, but a resilient moat is not yet recognizable.
- Finance & Management (13/20)
Financially, the company is $FLNC (+19,24 %) in a transitional phase. The gross margin is around 14.8%, compared to 17% in the previous year. According to company guidance, a net loss of around USD 48 million is expected for the full year 2025 - after a profit year in 2024. The Rule of 40 (sales growth + operating margin) remains clearly missed at around 25. The solid balance sheet structure with low debt and sufficient liquidity is positive. However, capital measures to finance growth and production delays in new factories show that the operational path remains rocky.
- Valuation & Momentum (14/20)
With an EV/sales ratio of around 1.1 based on 2026 sales estimates, the company is moderately valued. $FLNC (+19,24 %) is moderately valued. The share price remains volatile, fluctuating between USD 10 and USD 19 for months. A sustained upward trend will only set in if the company manages to achieve stable profitability. This results in a balanced risk/reward profile - high potential, but still little confidence in the market.
- Visibility & potential (16/20)
Despite orders worth billions and strategic partnerships $FLNC (+19,24 %) hardly known in Europe. In the USA, the company is increasingly seen by institutional investors as a structural beneficiary of the energy transition, but is still below the media perception of large energy or tech stocks. With the expected expansion of decentralized storage solutions and increasing software penetration, the picture is likely to change significantly in the coming years.
The bottom line is an overall score of 71 / 100 points, which corresponds to a yellow rating ("Observe") according to the 10B model. This means that $FLNC (+19,24 %) currently in the "structurally strong, operationally in transition" category. The energy storage market is growing rapidly and Fluence is right in the middle of it - with clear strengths in technology, project expertise and strategic positioning, but still without a stable margin base. The share remains a candidate for investors with patience and an understanding of cyclical intermediate phases.
What makes $FLNC (+19,24 %) particularly interesting is the combination of global relevance and still low visibility. The company supplies key infrastructure for the energy transition, but is currently treated by the market more like a typical mid-cap. If Fluence succeeds in consolidating its margin base and noticeably increasing software revenue, the risk/reward ratio could improve significantly in a short space of time. Anyone betting on the expansion of the grid infrastructure and the momentum of the energy transition will find a potential profiteer with an asymmetrical profile here - high upside potential, but still with hurdles along the way.
$FLNC (+19,24 %) remains on my watchlist for now.
Questions for the community:
How do you see the potential of energy storage stocks - more long-term infrastructure stocks or underestimated growth stories?
And are there any stocks that you would be particularly interested in analyzing using the 10B model?
