Cigna's partnership with $LLY (+2,9 %) and $NOVO B (+2,99 %) to cap co-payments at $200 for Zepbound and Wegovy (i.e. $400 cheaper) has 0 significance for $HIMS (+8,3 %) . Since Hims is not in the insurance business and others are willing to sell it for $0!

Eli Lilly
Price
Discussion sur LLY
Postes
137Hims: Eli Lilly
Rumors are going around that $HIMS (+8,3 %) not only a cooperation with $NOVO B (+2,99 %) with GLP1 but also with $LLY (+2,9 %) for diabetes and GLP, this would be very important for the business and would stand for security and diversification... what do you think?

Depotroast - my way
TL;DR like to roast my deposit, appreciate all opinions!
I always find the many posts here and reading various biographies very interesting, so I've wanted to say a few words for a while now.
Tried early, but started late
I am now 32 and unfortunately started investing seriously far too late, studied far too long, and with the larger salaries finally built up as much as possible and tried to catch up as quickly as possible. "Unfortunately" means for the most part the past calendar year, which is why I put a large part of my money into shares at already high prices and then had very little cash left in the crash to add to it. Fully invested, in other words. During the crash, I mainly reallocated and continued to fully invest what was left over from my monthly salaries.
Yet back in 2011, at the age of 18, I had a share called Facebook and a Starbucks share in my portfolio without much of a clue. I just wanted to know what my mother was actually doing with her shares and how it worked, and with FB and Starbucks I simply chose two companies that "everyone" uses/needs anyway. The idea wasn't that stupid, it worked, and after a short time I was happy about the small profit in absolute terms, sold the shares at DiBa despite the high fees at the time and simply forgot about shares for years - wealth accumulation, a word that wasn't in my vocabulary, the money I had was simply turned upside down as a young adult. Well, young me, just leave the shares lying around or, even better, take a closer look at them and carry on, it "might" have been worth it...
Of priorities and wrong horses
The years went by without any shares, but with lots of fast food and partying, but at least things have changed. At some point, I started to think about the future and wealth accumulation, first taking an interest in interest rates, and then the logical next step was dividends and shares. Unfortunately, it started rather haphazardly. As a student, I started investing small amounts, and of course betting on the wrong horses. Speculative lithium shares were particularly bad in this phase, unfortunately these were large sums even by my standards, from my grandfather's estate. That was bad. However, crypto was a very good horse, more precisely $BTC (-0,56 %) and $ETH (-1,81 %) which (as a computer scientist) I became interested in early on and exited several times with high profits, also thanks to domestic mining. It's just stupid that back then, in the last decade, I would never have imagined how cryptos would develop. If I had, I would have simply left it all, or at least part of it. You learn and you're always smarter afterwards anyway.
Fully invested - excessive, unhealthy, or simply good housekeeping?
So now I'm 32 - and proud of a portfolio that I think I've built up to a good size in a relatively short time. Which has given me other ideas for some time now. I'm still a long way from reaching my goal, but I have to get back on the "invest 100%" path, which has been completely contrary to my past for a long time now, and strangely enough, I'm finding it difficult to do so - something to reflect on. There are too many (supposed?) opportunities every day. So I simply could not $UNH (+1,54 %) after a long period of observation yesterday and of course the savings plans had to run today too. I think I've always been good at budgeting, or let's put it this way, at least good at getting by with the money available to me in a perfectly timed way, but "indulging", not just in company shares, may become a little more prominent again. I don't go without noticeably in everyday life, I need very little, which I don't think is a bad quality to begin with. But I have changed a lot in the area of "consumption" compared to the past. I think it would be good to find a healthy balance. In my opinion, just as you don't just live to work, but work to live, the same applies to saving/investing. I actually read a post here on gq today that described exactly that and I could relate to it very well. So, reflection and taking your foot off the gas is allowed - no, it's a must! I am familiar with frugalists, but I never wanted to be one. I'd be interested to know if anyone else here feels the same way, or did?
Wrong decisions, mistakes... and (hopefully) the right conclusions
Back to the topic! (Not only) on the way to today's portfolio I have made many wrong decisions, as already mentioned, so I thought that a well-kept portfolio roast could do me some good. Other, new opinions and assessments can't be bad!
In particular, in the past I have often missed the opportunity to simply let profits run their course and instead dragged losses around with me for too long (which brings us back to lithium). A thought that I recently had again when I was thinking about when it would make sense to $HIMS (+8,3 %) possibly realize, as an example. $PLTR (+7,32 %) and $NVDA (-2,46 %) are two examples that, like so many others, I naturally had on my radar, but they always seemed too expensive, the setback never came and I really missed the big rallies as a result. At the same time, I also get caught out by FOMO from time to time. So in both good and bad phases, I try not to just see red or green, fear or hope, but simply to evaluate what actually makes sense "from now on". Sometimes you realize a loss in order to try your luck elsewhere, sometimes you should let profits run, sometimes take them, sometimes endure the dip, sometimes be courageous and sometimes defensive. Easier said than done. I find it very nice and helpful to exchange ideas on this platform and how open and "yet" respectful it generally is. Of course, I will most likely never reach some portfolio sizes, but you can always learn something about how some people manage their portfolios, regardless of the absolute figures. You will always make mistakes, but at least you should deal with them correctly and draw the best possible conclusions.
Portfolio restructuring, planned investments / savings plans
And today? After some evaluation, research, regrouping and restructuring, I now have fewer, but still quite a few positions in different sectors, most of which are already of a decent and roughly balanced size. My medium-term plan is now to build up all positions to a certain target size. This is why I am currently running savings plans:
ETF/ETC:
Partly with small weekly amounts, until enough cash is available to fill the target position evenly. With $AVGO (+0,55 %) for example, there is not much left. Also $BRK.B (-0,27 %) / $APH (+1,34 %) and others are already approaching the target. In some cases with somewhat larger sums for still small but prioritized positions, until opportunities and/or resources for individual purchases arise, such as the $ALV (+0,45 %) and $RSG (+1,12 %) should be mentioned here, as well as $DGE (+0,56 %) as a turnaround candidate.
Once the aforementioned positions are full, I would like to turn my attention to the more defensive candidates that are already in the portfolio but which I am currently prioritizing - $MCD (+0,68 %) / $KO (+1,08 %) / $CCEP (+1,38 %) / $ULVR (+0,74 %) and others - and finally increase the ETF and gold share in the long term.
$VKTX (-4 %) is a bit of a gamble, as I have actually said goodbye to pharma - $ABBV (+0,8 %) / $NOVO B (+2,99 %) / $LLY (+2,9 %) and $MRK (+1,19 %) were still part of the inventory until recently. Instead, I decided to go with $DXCM (+0,54 %) / $ISRG (-0,67 %) / $DHR (-0,68 %) on medical technology.
$BTC (-0,56 %) remains a fixed value in the portfolio, while I $ETH (-1,81 %) (incorrectly entered due to staking - around 0.4 shares or €1000) and $XRP (-2,42 %) would/will sell at corresponding prices.
I still lack around €15,000 in individual stocks at current prices to bring all positions to the current desired/dream target. This will take some time, but is foreseeable. And then I would be really quite proud and happy "as things stand now"! In any case, I now feel very comfortable on the path I have chosen and, as I said, I have to stop myself from forgetting that not all money has to be invested all the time.
Savings rate
To put this into figures, I have averaged a savings rate of around €1500 over the last 24 months, with an average of €100 a month in dividends. 1400€ investment, that's about 82% of my monthly budget after deducting all "unavoidable" fixed costs including fuel and household, but not including consumption such as clothes, going out or vacations. Exaggerated, I can't say otherwise myself. But at least I have a good reason to step on the gas and get the compound interest going.
So what is all this for?
In the long term, my girlfriend and I dream of owning a property somewhere on the Croatian Adriatic, her homeland, and where I was able to spend many wonderful weeks with my parents every year as a child. A beautiful region that I consider an important part of my life, with many great moments and memories that may become even more. I hope to get closer to this goal "quickly" with the depot. The language is already halfway there! :)
In the long term, this would probably involve a little reallocation into value dividend payers, which should help with repayment. However, I would also like to lay the foundations for later distributions today, without neglecting growth. There is probably no perfect mix for this, but you are welcome to rate mine.
So, unfortunately I was once again unable to be brief. Thank you for reading, whoever has made it this far, and for your comments! I'm very excited and wish you all a great weekend.
Buy high, sell low - pharma under pressure
🍊 is getting serious: planned cost reductions of 30-80% are being implemented by US pharmaceutical giants such as $JNJ (+1,86 %) , $ABBV (+0,8 %) and $LLY (+2,9 %) under massive pressure. This is certainly a step in the right direction for the population - drug prices in the USA were sometimes really beyond good and evil.
But of course bitter from an investor's point of view. The big pharmaceutical stocks could take a big hit.
It will be interesting to see whether foreign companies such as $NOVO B (+2,99 %) and Co will also be dragged down by this.
Personally, I don't currently have any individual pharma positions (only via ETFs), but I am planning to build something up in the long term - just not in this phase of uncertainty.
What's your situation? Are you invested in the US pharma segment and can withstand a possible price slide?
The end
Rip pharmaceutical company
$PFE (+0,48 %)
$JNJ (+1,86 %)
$ABBV (+0,8 %)
$ROG (+2,01 %)
$NOVO B (+2,99 %)
$LLY (+2,9 %)

HIMS & HERS: EARNINGS HIGHLIGHTS - FAIRER WERT BEI $42
Anbei meine Gedanken zu den Q1-Quartalszahlen (auf Englisch, da einfacher):
Positive
- „Floor“ 2030 guidance of $6.5b in revenue and $1.3b adj. EBITDA (= 20% adj. EBITDA margins) —> >100$ stock by 2030 if they execute
- Nearly 30% YoY revenue growth excl. GLP-1s
- Nearly 50% YoY subscriber growth in dermatology
- New verticals coming this year: low testosterone and menopause support, although later than earlier communicated („before year end“ vs. H1-25)
- Growing share of personalization (now 60% overall, 70% of new subscribers, 80% in dermatology, sexual health subscribers with daily solutions doubled YoY to >40%)
- Higher retention in sexual health and dermatology
- Higher personalization and retention are a clear sign of enhancing patient outcomes per dollar spent over time
- Strong operating leverage, especially in marketing
- Rising operating cashflow
- Growing cash position
- Updated guide to higher adj. EBITDA and adj. EBITDA margin
- Positive outlook on deepening partnership with Novo $NOVO B (+2,99 %) (more product lines / categories, potentially across geographies)
- New COO (Amazon veteran)
- Confidence in scaling platform globally
- Scaling operations (>700k square feet) and upgrade of equipment across facilities
- Roadmap to preventive care as mass market in the next 5 years
Negative
- Only 137k net subscribers added this quarter (last 4 quarters were all higher, only 6% vs. previous quarter)
- Revenue growth excl. GLP-1s showing signs of slowdown (nearly 30% YoY vs. 46% in the previous year) —> maybe due to shift in marketing focus on weight loss and volatility in sexual health
- 39% of Q1-25 revenue coming from GLP-1s ($230m in Q1-25 vs. $12m in Q2-24)
- „Disappointing“ outlook, i.e. no higher guide for Q2-25 and FY25, despite Novo $NOVO B (+2,99 %) deal
- Expected volatility in sexual health due to shift to personalized daily solutions vs. on-demand solutions
- Decrease in gross margins (73,5% vs. 76,8% QoQ), but expected to be temporary (sequential increase next quarter)
- Exploding CAC per net subscribers added (2x vs Q1-24) —> again, maybe due to shift in marketing focus on weight loss
- No buybacks, indicating fair value / overvaluation
- No CTO update
- Ongoing talks with Eli Lilly $LLY (+2,9 %) , but company seems reluctant, given negative stance on compounders
Bewertung
- Falls die 2030er Ziele erreicht werden: $6,5 Mrd. Umsatz x 20% Adj. EBITDA Marge x 20er Multiple = $26 Mrd. Marktkapitalisierung = ca. $100 Aktienkurs
- Fairer Wert heute: $42
Podcast episode 87 "Buy High. Sell Low."
Subscribe to the podcast to help Apple break a new all-time high.
00:00:00 Market environment
00:07:00 Eli Lilly
00:24:00 First Solar
00:40:40 Spotify
00:59:50 Microsoft, Windows 10 & 11
01:11:20 Apple
01:41:40 Strategy, Bitcoin, Cantor Equity Partner A-share A40D87
Spotify
https://open.spotify.com/episode/6z8c8F2IvzrYq51EUrVHqg?si=8N2VftoMQjOLaro_9t9kVQ
YouTube
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vANGx5Y_LyM
Apple Podcast
$$AAPL (+0,57 %)
$MSFT (+0,62 %)
$SPOT (+4,37 %)
$GOOG (-0,11 %)
$GOOGL (-0,13 %)
$LLY (+2,9 %)$CEP
$BTC (-0,56 %)
$MSTR (-0,37 %)
$FSLR (+2,67 %)
S&P 500 runs mixed today on May 1 - but not for tech and electronics. In retail, Amazon is flying the flag 👆
$WEBG (-0,23 %)
$VWCE (+0,18 %) A small harbinger of how the World ETF will start tomorrow. Due to the high weighting of $MSFT (+0,62 %) 🟢$NVDA (-2,46 %) 🟢$META (+0,56 %) 🟢$AMZN (-0,1 %) 🟢and Co, it should start in green tomorrow 😁
Among the losers of the day today with over -10% is the share of $LLY (+2,9 %) 🔴

Lilly Q1 Earnings Highlights
$LLY (+2,9 %)
$HIMS (+8,3 %)
$NOVO B (+2,99 %)
$NVO (+3,62 %)
- Revenue: $12.73B (est. $12.72B) ✅; +45%
- Adj. EPS: $3.34 (est. $3.46) ❌; +29% YoY
- Net Income (Adj): $3.00B (est. $2.72B) ✅
FY25 Guide"
- Adj. EPS: $20.78–$22.28 (Prior: $22.50–$24.00)
- Revenue: $58B–$61B (est. $59.57B)
- Performance Margin: 41.5%–43.5% (Adj)
- Effective Tax Rate: ~17% (Prior: ~16%)
- Other Expense (Reported): ($850M)–($750M)
- Capex/Manufacturing: Expanded; 4 new facilities announced
- Guidance Based On Existing Tariff, Environment
Key Product Revenue (Q1 YoY)
- Mounjaro: $3.84B (+113%)
- Zepbound: $2.31B (Est. $2.3B)
- Verzenio: $1.16B (+10%)
- U.S. Revenue: $8.49B (+49%)
- Intl Revenue: $4.24B (+38%)
Other Key Metrics:
- Gross Margin: 83.5% (Adj); +100 bps
- R&D Expenses: $2.73B (+8%); 21.5% of revenue
- SG&A: $2.47B (+26%)
- Acquired IPR&D: $1.57B (or $1.72/share)
Pipeline Progress:
• Orforglipron (oral GLP-1) Phase 3 success
• Donanemab awaiting CHMP outcome
• Jaypirca approved in EU for R/R CLL
• Lepodisiran shows 94% Lp(a) reduction
• Baricitinib shows positive adolescent AA results
• EBGLYSS: 50% clear skin at 3 years
• Omvoh: sustained remission in Crohn’s
Business Developments:
- Expanded Zepbound vial offerings + savings for self-pay
- LillyDirect expands Alzheimer’s access
- >$50B U.S. manufacturing investment (since 2020)
CEO David Ricks Commentary
- “We had a solid start to the year with 45% revenue growth led by Mounjaro and Zepbound. Our pipeline continues to deliver, and we are scaling manufacturing to meet growing global demand.”

Devils advocate against :
$NOVO B (+2,99 %)
$HIMS (+8,3 %)
$LLY (+2,9 %)
It is no secret that the release of GLP-1 drugs like Ozempic, Wegovy, Mounjaro have made these companies very strong buys in recent times.
However there is reason to hold caution in these companies, if simply buying because of these ground breaking drugs, and it is not tariffs, contrary to popular belief.
I would argue, it is in-fact America itself. You see, the reason these drug companies have been able to make so much money off of these drugs, is not because all americans are fat. Although there is some truth, in that the rates of diabetes and obesity in the states contribute to these revenues, it is actually the american health insurance system itself, which allows these drugs to sell at absorbent prices in the first place. You can't sell these drugs at the same prices elsewhere in the world, because governments, and entities like the EU do not allow it.
You see, the sale of GLP-1 drugs in america accounts for around 30-50% of revenue of the worldwide distribution of these drugs; And in the early days this was absolutely a golden goose. Because they are so powerful for weight loss. It made them extremely popular, and in turn, sales skyrocketed. However, this is exactly why there may be a problem.
You see American Insurance companies started losing so much money in coverage of these drugs, that many, if they continued at their current rate, would have not only lost money, but may have actually gone bankrupt if they continued for long periods of time. So the American insurance companies changed course, and started to reduce the coverage for these drugs:
Blue Cross Blue Shield of Massachusetts: Will stop covering GLP-1s for weight loss starting January 1, 2026, while continuing coverage for diabetes.- Independence Blue Cross (IBX): Has restricted coverage for weight loss GLP-1s, requiring a diagnosis of Type 2 diabetes, cardiovascular disease, or sleep apnea for coverage.
- Blue Cross Blue Shield of Michigan: Has stopped covering GLP-1 drugs for weight loss for fully insured large group commercial members starting in January 2025.
- North Carolina's State Health Plan: Dropped coverage for weight loss GLP-1s for state employees in April 2024 due to high costs.
- Kaiser Permanente: Will drop base coverage for GLP-1s for weight loss for commercial and ACA members in California (with a BMI less than 40) starting January 1, 2025.
- MassHealth: Has transitioned coverage, with Zepbound becoming the preferred option and Wegovy and Saxenda being discontinued for most adult members starting in January 2025.
And most of all, American insurance companies, hold the most powerful card, in all of medicine. A sort of Trump card, so to speak. The use of Prior Authorization.
This is a foreign concept to most people outside of the US, and it is somewhat hard to understand. So to explain it as simply as possible:
It allows American insurance companies to deny covering anything they want. From medications to anesthesia or even surgeries. They do this in a convoluted way, but in simple terms, they hire their own physicians to review prescriptions from patients doctors, and accept or deny coverage, based on their Physicians opinions(the insurance companies), rather than a patients physician.
This in turn allows them to basically deny coverage for anything, for really any reason, as they don't really have to justify it in court, 99% of the time.
Even when coverage exists, insurers are implementing stricter prior authorization requirements, including:
- Higher BMI thresholds for coverage.
- Requiring trials and failures of non-GLP-1 weight-loss medications.
- Mandatory participation in additional weight-loss programs.
- Monitoring for a certain percentage of weight loss to maintain coverage.
- Medicaid: Coverage varies by state. Some states cover GLP-1s for weight loss, often with prior authorization and BMI requirements.
- Medicare: Generally does not cover weight loss drugs, although there are exceptions if the drug is also approved for another medical condition (like cardiovascular risk reduction for Wegovy in certain patients).
So in conclusion, these companies can still do very well with these drugs, and still make a lot of money, but the tides are shifting, and the well of wealth is not endless, so it may be wise to temper some expectations.
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